Back to the future: Throughput prediction for cellular networks using radio KPIs

The availability of reliable predictions for cellular throughput would offer a fundamental change in the way applications are designed and operated. Numerous cellular applications, including video streaming and VoIP, embed logic that attempts to estimate achievable throughput and adapt their behaviour accordingly. We believe that providing applications with reliable predictions several seconds into the future would enable profoundly better adaptation decisions and dramatically benefit demanding applications like mobile virtual and augmented reality. The question we pose and seek to address is whether such reliable predictions are possible. We conduct a preliminary study of throughput prediction in a cellular environment using statistical machine learning techniques. An accurate prediction can be very challenging in large scale cellular environments because they are characterized by highly fluctuating channel conditions. Using simulations and real-world experiments, we study how prediction error varies as a function of prediction horizon, and granularity of available data. In particular, our simulation experiments show that the prediction error for mobile devices can be reduced significantly by combining measurements from the network with measurements from the end device. Our results indicate that it is possible to accurately predict achievable throughput up to 8 sec in the future where 50th percentile of all errors are less than 15% for mobile and 2% for static devices