Capturing Risk in Capital Budgeting

NPS NRP Technical ReportThis proposed research has the goal of proposing novel, reusable, extensible, adaptable, and comprehensive advanced analytical process and Integrated Risk Management to help the (DOD) with risk-based capital budgeting, Monte Carlo risk-simulation, predictive analytics, and stochastic optimization of acquisitions and programs portfolios with multiple competing stakeholders while subject to budgetary, risk, schedule, and strategic constraints. The research covers topics of traditional capital budgeting methodologies used in industry, including the market, cost, and income approaches, and explains how some of these traditional methods can be applied in the DOD by using DOD-centric non-economic, logistic, readiness, capabilities, and requirements variables. Stochastic portfolio optimization with dynamic simulations and investment efficient frontiers will be run for the purposes of selecting the best combination of programs and capabilities is also addressed, as are other alternative methods such as average ranking, risk metrics, lexicographic methods, PROMETHEE, ELECTRE, and others. The results include actionable intelligence developed from an analytically robust case study that senior leadership at the DOD may utilize to make optimal decisions. The main deliverables will be a detailed written research report and presentation brief on the approach of capturing risk and uncertainty in capital budgeting analysis. The report will detail the proposed methodology and applications, as well as a summary case study and examples of how the methodology can be applied.N8 - Integration of Capabilities & ResourcesThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Stock Market Simulation

Through the use of tools and resources available from the internet as well as text and media references, a team of six people conducted an eleven-week stock-market simulation to investigate the validity and success of different trading strategies in the stock market. In the project group members selected companies to follow and trade based on how the company projected earnings. This required extensive research into the companies\u27 history and recent movements. The group found that all of the methods tested were adequate in producing returns but one method that followed Livermore\u27s Principals of investing was far superior to all of the others. The experience gained throughout this project will allow the group to become more competent investors in the future

OTIMIZAÇÃO DE INVESTIMENTOS EM GESTÃO DE ATIVOS DE SISTEMAS DE ABASTECIMENTO DE ÁGUA UTILIZANDO O ÍNDICE DE VALOR DA INFRAESTRUTURA

The field of asset management provides a coordinated effort to extract value from physical assets, incorporating an integrated approach to deal with risks, costs and performance. This paper proposes an oriented approach to selecting infrastructure investment projects in an asset management framework. The standard metric used for project selection with multiple assets is the Infrastructure Value Index (IVI), which has been used to characterize water sector assets in several countries. Two mixed-integer linear programming models are developed in this paper. The first optimization model deals with a capital budget allocation problem that intends to select investment projects that maximize assets’ condition. The second optimization model deals with a budget planning problem aiming at minimizing the capital required to maintain the assets in the desired condition. The application of the models is illustrated by a case study of a company operating in the water sector in Portugal, namely in a pumping station from a water supply system. The results obtained in the different scenarios analysed are discussed with a view to supporting the design of more efficient asset management policies. A área de conhecimento associada à gestão de ativos potencia a extração de valor de ativos físicos, incorporando uma abordagem integrada que envolve riscos, custos e desempenho. Este trabalho propõe uma nova abordagem para selecionar projetos de investimento em infraestruturas no âmbito da gestão de ativos. A métrica padrão utilizada para a seleção de projetos em ativos múltiplos é o Índice de Valor de Infraestruturas (IVI), que tem sido utilizado para caracterizar ativos do setor de águas em diversos países. Este trabalho desenvolveu dois modelos de programação linear inteira mista. O primeiro modelo de otimização trata de um problema de alocação de orçamento de capital selecionando projetos de investimento com vista à maximização da condição dos ativos. O segundo modelo de otimização trata de um problema de planeamento de orçamento, visando minimizar o capital necessário para manter os ativos nas condições desejadas. A aplicação dos modelos é ilustrada por um estudo de caso de uma empresa que opera no setor da água em Portugal. Os resultados obtidos nos diferentes cenários analisados são discutidos com vista a apoiar o desenho de políticas de gestão de ativos mais eficientes

Research for ANSI accredited “Lean Six Sigma Green Belt Certificate Program” in Packaging Science for Undergraduate Students

This research project is a result of a problem-solving proposal that was submitted to Program Chair Dr. Daniel Goodwin on June 28, 2010. The proposal recommends that RIT’s Packaging Science Program establish a unique Lean Six Sigma Green Belt in Packaging Science Certificate program for undergraduate students. The proposal was developed as a result of receiving input from the RIT Packaging Industrial Advisory Board, from researching packaging job descriptions and from Professor Dr. Duane P. Beck’s extensive Lean Six Sigma experience. Students who are successful in receiving the certificate will be able to demonstrate problem-solving skills in the packaging industry. The proposal also identifies three RIT benefits as stated below: “Green Belt Certificate Program Benefits: 1) With the Lean Six Sigma Green Belt Certificate, the student will stand above and beyond other graduating students from other colleges and universities. 2) It is our vision that the student will receive higher starting salary offers because of achieving higher standards in their chosen educational program. 3) According to an ANSI representative, “if we are successful in the development, coordination and sustainability of this innovative program, RIT will be the first one of its kind among universities and colleges in the nation.” This Research Project The certificate program will be designed according to ANSI accreditation guidelines and supported by quality assurance procedures. The procedures will enable the Packaging Science program to consistently meet ANSI accreditation guidelines under the ASTM certificate standards. It is not the immediate goal to seek ANSI accreditation but to establish the program according to their guidelines. Both the procedures and ANSI guidelines bring reliability and creditability for administering, issuing and evaluating the certificates. The research project focuses on performing research on setting up a Lean Six Sigma Green Belt program for undergraduate students at RIT and development of the quality assurance procedures in order to meet ANSI accreditation guidelines. The research will be on four primary areas: 1) Lean Six Sigma Green Belt; 2) Certificate Programs; 3) Accreditation Guidelines; and 4) Quality Assurance Procedures. For the four areas the project will focus on identifying the gap of knowledge between what is currently offered in the packaging industry and what the Packaging Science certificate program needs to integrate for success and sustainable reasons

Armstrong Research, Technology, and Engineering Accomplishments 2014

No abstract availabl

The e-World as an enabler to learn

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Technology and Policy Program, 2001.This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.Includes bibliographical references (p. 128-132).by Frédéric Mahoué.S.M

The coevolution of the firm and the supply network : a complex systems perspective

A complex adaptive systems approach has been permeating organizational studies and the field of supply network management helping to describe and explain supply network dynamics and emergent inter-firm structures. This has improved our theoretical knowledge of the nature of supply networks transforming raw materials into products, within a constantly changing environment. From the early days of simple structures, describing bi-lateral, local arrangements between firms for the creation of relatively simple products, we are now in an environment of various supply network archetypes, describing different global sourcing regimes of highly integrated, sophisticated products within multi-tier networks. This thesis is a study of the coevolution of the firm and supply network in the commercial aerospace manufacturing sector producing jetliners of 100 or more seats. One of the contributions of this research is to demonstrate how the holistic approach of complexity science can be applied to describe, understand and gain new insight into the coevolution of the firm and the supply network. Based on the findings of multiple interviews and questionnaires in eight global aerospace firms across multiple supply chain tiers, this research finds high-performing clusters of inter-firm characteristics, plus the aspects of structure and integration which deliver the supply network performance. Practitioners can use these specific results to examine their own firms and the new coevolutionary conceptual framework developed in the thesis may aid future research studies of complex adaptive systems in practice. The simple survey design and analysis method used in the final research stage of this research, has the potential for use in other industries, markets and other complex adaptive systems generally to examine performance outcomes and the effects of having or adopting new inter-firm characteristics. Finally, implications for policy include the potential to legitimize supply networks in order to stimulate competition and innovation in the economy.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Examining the issues & challenges of email & e-communications. 2nd Northumbria Witness Seminar Conference, 24-25 Oct 2007 Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne.

These proceedings capture the content of the second Witness Seminar hosted by Northumbria University’s School of Computing, Engineering and Information Sciences. It followed the success of the first witness seminar in terms of its format and style but differed in that it focused on one topic - managing email and other electronic communications technologies from a records perspective. As before the witnesses were invited to share their views and opinions on a specific aspect taking as their starting point a pertinent published article(s). Three seminars explored the business, people and technology perspectives of email and e-communications, asking the following questions: What are the records management implications and challenges of doing business electronically? Are people the problem and the solution? Is technology the problem or panacea? The final seminar, 'Futurewatch', focused on moving forward, exploring new ways of working, potential new technologies and what records professionals and others need to keep on their radar screens

Space resources. Volume 4: Social concerns

Space resources must be used to support life on the Moon and exploration of Mars. This volume, Social Concerns, covers some of the most important issues which must be addressed in any major program for the human exploration of space. The volume begins with a consideration of the economics and management of large scale space activities. Then the legal aspects of these activities are discussed, particularly the interpretation of treaty law with respect to the Moon and asteroids. The social and cultural issues of moving people into space are considered in detail, and the eventual emergence of a space culture different from the existing culture is envisioned. The environmental issues raised by the development of space settlements are faced. Some innovative approaches are proposed to space communities and habitats and self-sufficiency is considered along with human safety at a lunar base or outpost

Volume II Acquisition Research Creating Synergy for Informed Change, Thursday 19th Annual Acquisition Research Proceedings

ProceedingsApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited