Evaluating Overfit and Underfit in Models of Network Community Structure

A common data mining task on networks is community detection, which seeks an unsupervised decomposition of a network into structural groups based on statistical regularities in the network's connectivity. Although many methods exist, the No Free Lunch theorem for community detection implies that each makes some kind of tradeoff, and no algorithm can be optimal on all inputs. Thus, different algorithms will over or underfit on different inputs, finding more, fewer, or just different communities than is optimal, and evaluation methods that use a metadata partition as a ground truth will produce misleading conclusions about general accuracy. Here, we present a broad evaluation of over and underfitting in community detection, comparing the behavior of 16 state-of-the-art community detection algorithms on a novel and structurally diverse corpus of 406 real-world networks. We find that (i) algorithms vary widely both in the number of communities they find and in their corresponding composition, given the same input, (ii) algorithms can be clustered into distinct high-level groups based on similarities of their outputs on real-world networks, and (iii) these differences induce wide variation in accuracy on link prediction and link description tasks. We introduce a new diagnostic for evaluating overfitting and underfitting in practice, and use it to roughly divide community detection methods into general and specialized learning algorithms. Across methods and inputs, Bayesian techniques based on the stochastic block model and a minimum description length approach to regularization represent the best general learning approach, but can be outperformed under specific circumstances. These results introduce both a theoretically principled approach to evaluate over and underfitting in models of network community structure and a realistic benchmark by which new methods may be evaluated and compared.Comment: 22 pages, 13 figures, 3 table

Prediction and Tracking of Moving Objects in Image Sequences

We employ a prediction model for moving object velocity and location estimation derived from Bayesian theory. The optical flow of a certain moving object depends on the history of its previous values. A joint optical flow estimation and moving object segmentation algorithm is used for the initialization of the tracking algorithm. The segmentation of the moving objects is determined by appropriately classifying the unlabeled and the occluding regions. Segmentation and optical flow tracking is used for predicting future frames

Synergistic combination of systems for structural health monitoring and earthquake early warning for structural health prognosis and diagnosis

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are currently operating nationwide in Japan and are in beta-testing in California. Such a system detects an earthquake initiation using online signals from a seismic sensor network and broadcasts a warning of the predicted location and magnitude a few seconds to a minute or so before an earthquake hits a site. Such a system can be used synergistically with installed structural health monitoring (SHM) systems to enhance pre-event prognosis and post-event diagnosis of structural health. For pre-event prognosis, the EEW system information can be used to make probabilistic predictions of the anticipated damage to a structure using seismic loss estimation methodologies from performance-based earthquake engineering. These predictions can support decision-making regarding the activation of appropriate mitigation systems, such as stopping traffic from entering a bridge that has a predicted high probability of damage. Since the time between warning and arrival of the strong shaking is very short, probabilistic predictions must be rapidly calculated and the decision making automated for the mitigation actions. For post-event diagnosis, the SHM sensor data can be used in Bayesian updating of the probabilistic damage predictions with the EEW predictions as a prior. Appropriate Bayesian methods for SHM have been published. In this paper, we use pre-trained surrogate models (or emulators) based on machine learning methods to make fast damage and loss predictions that are then used in a cost-benefit decision framework for activation of a mitigation measure. A simple illustrative example of an infrastructure application is presented

Markov and Neural Network Models for Prediction of Structural Deterioration of Stormwater Pipe Assets

Storm-water pipe networks in Australia are designed to convey water from rainfall and surface runoff. They do not transport sewerage. Their structural deterioration is progressive with aging and will eventually cause pipe collapse with consequences of service interruption. Predicting structural condition of pipes provides vital information for asset management to prevent unexpected failures and to extend service life. This study focused on predicting the structural condition of storm-water pipes with two objectives. The first objective is the prediction of structural condition changes of the whole network of storm-water pipes by a Markov model at different times during their service life. This information can be used for planning annual budget and estimating the useful life of pipe assets. The second objective is the prediction of structural condition of any particular pipe by a neural network model. This knowledge is valuable in identifying pipes that are in poor condition for repair actions. A case study with closed circuit television inspection snapshot data was used to demonstrate the applicability of these two models