Load Disaggregation Using One-Directional Convolutional Stacked Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Network

Reliable information about the active loads in the energy system allows for effective and optimized energy management. An important aspect of intelligent energy monitoring system is load disaggregation. The proliferation of direct current (dc) loads has spurred the increasing research interest in extra low voltage (ELV) dc grids. Artificial intelligence, such as deep learning algorithms of stacked recurrent neural network (RNN), improved results on a variety of regression and classification tasks. This paper proposes a 1-D convolutional stacked long short-term memory RNN technique for the bottom-up approach in load disaggregation using single sensor multiple loads ELV dc picogrids. This eliminates the requirement for communication and intelligence on every load in the grid. The proposed technique was applied on two different dc picogrids to test the algorithm's robustness. The proposed technique produced excellent result of over 98% accuracy for smart loads and over 99% accuracy for dumb loads in ELV dc picogrid

A Scoping Review of Energy Load Disaggregation

Energy load disaggregation can contribute to balancing power grids by enhancing the effectiveness of demand-side management and promoting electricity-saving behavior through increased consumer awareness. However, the field currently lacks a comprehensive overview. To address this gap, this paper con-ducts a scoping review of load disaggregation domains, data types, and methods, by assessing 72 full-text journal articles. The findings reveal that domestic electricity consumption is the most researched area, while others, such as industrial load disaggregation, are rarely discussed. The majority of research uses relatively low-frequency data, sampled between 1 and 60 seconds. A wide variety of methods are used, and artificial neural networks are the most common, followed by optimization strategies, Hidden Markov Models, and Graph Signal Processing approaches

Improving Residential Load Disaggregation for Sustainable Development of Energy via Principal Component Analysis

The useful planning and operation of the energy system requires a sustainability assessment of the system, in which the load model adopted is the most important factor in sustainability assessment. Having information about energy consumption patterns of the appliances allows consumers to manage their energy consumption efficiently. Non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM) is an effective tool to recognize power consumption patterns from the measured data in meters. In this paper, an unsupervised approach based on dimensionality reduction is applied to identify power consumption patterns of home electrical appliances. This approach can be utilized to classify household activities of daily life using data measured from home electrical smart meters. In the proposed method, the power consumption curves of the electrical appliances, as high-dimensional data, are mapped to a low-dimensional space by preserving the highest data variance via principal component analysis (PCA). In this paper, the reference energy disaggregation dataset (REDD) has been used to verify the proposed method. REDD is related to real-world measurements recorded at low-frequency. The presented results reveal the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method in comparison to conventional procedures of NILM

Swarm electrification: A comprehensive literature review

In the global North, the need to decarbonize power generation is well documented and the challenges faced are endemic to the design of the electrical grids. With networks relying on centralized generation, it can be difficult to replace fossil-fuel power plants with renewable energy sources as generation may be intermittent causing grid instability when there is no ‘spinning reserve’ [1]. In parts of the global south, however, many under-electrified nations have high levels of solar irradiance. This, combined with falling prices for solar panels, is allowing for alternative paths to electrification from costly grid extensions and has resulted in grids built from the bottom up [2]. These grids can vary considerably in scale and capacity, dubbed micro-grids, nano-grids, and pico-grids. They can utilize AC, DC, or both and generally have either a centralized or distributed topology where each design has specific advantages and disadvantages [3]. Bangladesh has seen an unprecedented proliferation of small solar home systems. After performing a case study Groh et al. [4] discovered much of the generated electricity was not being utilized

Data-driven modelling, forecasting and uncertainty analysis of disaggregated demands and wind farm power outputs

Correct analysis of modern power supply systems requires to evaluate much wider ranges of uncertainties introduced by the implementation of new technologies on both supply and demand sides. On the supply side, these uncertainties are due to the increased contributions of renewable generation sources (e.g., wind and PV), whose stochastic output variations are difficult to predict and control, as well as due to the significant changes in system operating conditions, coming from the implementation of various control and balancing actions, increased automation and switching functionalities, and frequent network reconfiguration. On the demand side, these uncertainties are due to the installation of new types of loads, featuring strong spatio-temporal variations of demands (e.g., EV charging), as well as due to the deployment of different demand-side management schemes. Modern power supply systems are also characterised by much higher availability of measurements and recordings, coming from a number of recently deployed advanced monitoring, data acquisition and control systems, and providing valuable information on system operating and loading conditions, state and status of network components and details on various system events, transients and disturbances. Although the processing of large amounts of measured data brings its own challenges (e.g., data quality, performance, and incorporation of domain knowledge), these data open new opportunities for a more accurate and comprehensive evaluation of the overall system performance, which, however, require new data-driven analytical approaches and modelling tools. This PhD research is aimed at developing and evaluating novel and improved data-driven methodologies for modelling renewable generation and demand, in general, and for assessing the corresponding uncertainties and forecasting, in particular. The research and methods developed in this thesis use actual field measurements of several onshore and offshore wind farms, as well as measured active and reactive power demands at several low voltage (LV) individual household levels, up to the demands at medium voltage (MV) substation level. The models are specifically built to be implemented for power system analysis and are actually used by a number of researchers and PhD students in Edinburgh and elsewhere (e.g., collaborations with colleagues from Italy and Croatia), which is discussed and illustrated in the thesis through the selected study cases taken from this joint research efforts. After literature review and discussion of basic concepts and definitions, the first part of the thesis presents data-driven analysis, modelling, uncertainty evaluation and forecasting of (predominantly residential) demands and load profiles at LV and MV levels. The analysis includes both aggregation and disaggregation of measured demands, where the latter is considered in the context of identifying demand-manageable loads (e.g., heating). For that purpose, periodical changes in demands, e.g., half-daily, daily, weekly, seasonal and annual, are represented with Fourier/frequency components and correlated with the corresponding exploratory meteorological variables (e.g., temperature, solar irradiance), allowing to select the combination of components maximising the positive or negative correlations as an additional predictor variable. Convolutional neural network (CNN) and bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) are then used to represent dependencies among multiple dimensions and to output the estimated disaggregated time series of specific load types (with Bayesian optimisation applied to select appropriate CNN-BiLSTM hyperparameters). In terms of load forecasting, both tree-based and neural network-based models are analysed and compared for the day-ahead and week-ahead forecasting of demands at MV substation level, which are also correlated with meteorological data. Importantly, the presented load forecasting methodologies allow, for the first time, to forecast both total/aggregate demands and corresponding disaggregated demands of specific load types. In terms of the supply side analysis, the thesis presents data-driven evaluation, modelling, uncertainty evaluation and forecasting of wind-based electricity generation systems. The available measurements from both the individual wind turbines (WTs) and the whole wind farms (WFs) are used to formulate simple yet accurate operational models of WTs and WFs. First, available measurements are preprocessed, to remove outliers, as otherwise obtained WT/WF models may be biased, or even inaccurate. A novel simulation-based approach that builds on a procedure recommended in a standard is presented for processing all outliers due to applied averaging window (typically 10 minutes) and WT hysteresis effects (around the cut-in and cut-out wind speeds). Afterwards, the importance of distinguishing between WT-level and WF-level analysis is discussed and a new six-parameter power curve model is introduced for accurate modelling of both cut-in and cut-out regions and for taking into account operating regimes of a WF (WTs in normal/curtailed operation, or outage/fault). The modelling framework in the thesis starts with deterministic models (e.g., CNN-BiLSTM and power curve models) and is then extended to include probabilistic models, building on the Bayesian inference and Copula theory. In that context, the thesis presents a set of innovative data-driven WT and WF probabilistic models, which can accurately model cross-correlations between the WT/WF power output (Pout), wind speed (WS), air density (AD) and wind direction (WD). Vine Copula and Gaussian mixture Copula model (GMCM) are combined, for the first time, to evaluate the uncertainty of Pout values, conditioning on other explanatory variables (which may be either deterministic, or also uncertain). In terms of probabilistic wind energy forecasting, Bayesian CNN-BiLSTM model is used to analyse and efficiently handle high dimensionality of both input meteorological variables (WS, AD and WD) and additional uncertainties due to WF operating regimes. The presented results demonstrate that the developed Vine-GMCM and operational WF model can accurately integrate and effectively correlate all propagated uncertainties, ultimately resulting in much higher confidence levels of the forecasted WF power outputs than in the existing literature