Markets and operations: 2010 Q1

This article reviews developments in global financial markets since the 2009 Q4 Quarterly Bulletin up to 19 February 2010. The article also reviews the Bank’s official operations.

Markets and operations: 2010 Q2

This article reviews developments in sterling financial markets since the 2010 Q1 Quarterly Bulletin up to 21 May 2010. The article also reviews the Bank’s official operations.

Trading the bond-CDS basis: The role of credit risk and liquidity

We analyze trading opportunities that arise from differences between the bond and the CDS market. By simultaneously entering a position in a CDS contract and the underlying bond, traders can build a default-risk free position that allows them to repeatedly earn the difference between the bond asset swap spread and the CDS, known as the basis. We show that the basis size is closely related to measures of company-specific credit risk and liquidity, and to market conditions. In analyzing the aggregate profits of these basis trading strategies, we document that dissolving a position leads to significant profit variations, but that attractive risk-return characteristics still apply. The aggregate profits depend on the credit risk, liquidity, and market measures even more strongly than the basis itself, and we show which conditions make long and short basis trades more profitable. Finally, we document the impact of the financial crisis on the profits of long and short basis trades, and show that the formerly more profitable long basis trades experienced stronger profit decreases than short basis trades. --bond asset swap spreads,CDS premia,basis trading profits,credit risk,liquidity,fixed-effects,vector error correction model

Markets and operations - 2009 Q3

This article reviews developments in global financial markets since the 2009 Q2 Quarterly Bulletin up to end-August 2009. The article also reviews the Bank’s official operations.

Markets and operations 2009 Q4

This article reviews developments in sterling financial markets since the 2009 Q3 Quarterly Bulletin up to end-November 2009. The article also reviews the Bank’s official operations.

Credit default swaps and systemic risk

We present a network model for investigating the impact on systemic risk of central clearing of over the counter (OTC) credit default swaps (CDS). We model contingent cash flows resulting from CDS and other OTC derivatives by a multi-layered network with a core-periphery structure, which is flexible enough to reproduce the gross and net exposures as well as the heterogeneity of market shares of participating institutions. We analyze illiquidity cascades resulting from liquidity shocks and show that the contagion of illiquidity takes place along a sub-network constituted by links identified as ’critical receivables’. A key role is played by the long intermediation chains inherent to the structure of the OTC network, which may turn into chains of critical receivables. We calibrate our model to data representing net and gross OTC exposures of large dealer banks and use this model to investigate the impact of central clearing on network stability. We find that, when interest rate swaps are cleared, central clearing of credit default swaps through a well-capitalized CCP can reduce the probability and the magnitude of a systemic illiquidity spiral by reducing the length of the chains of critical receivables within the financial network. These benefits are reduced, however, if some large intermediaries are not included as clearing members

A value at risk analysis of credit default swaps

We study the risk of holding credit default swaps (CDS) in the trading book. In particular, we compare the Value at Risk (VaR) of a CDS position to the VaR for investing in the respective firm's equity. Our sample consists of CDS – stock price pairs for 86 actively traded firms over the period from March 2003 to October 2006. We find that the VaR for a stock is usually far larger than the VaR for a position in the same firm's CDS. However, the distance between CDS VaR and equity VaR is markedly smaller for firms with high credit risk. The distance also declines for longer holding periods. We also observe a positive correlation between CDS and equity VaR. -- Kreditderivate wie Credit Default Swaps (CDS) haben in den letzten Jahren den Handel mit Kreditrisiko signifikant vereinfacht. Ein standardisiertes Kontrakt-Design, niedrige Transaktionskosten und eine große and heterogene Gruppe von Marktteilnehmern haben dazu beigetragen, dass CDS die Benchmark - Funktion für die Preisbestimmung im Markt für Unternehmens-Verschuldung erreichen. Heute ist der CDS das am meisten gehandelte Kreditderivat. Wir analysieren das Risiko von CDS, die im Handelsbuch gehalten werden. Wir vergleichen den Value at Risk (VaR) der CDS Position mit dem VaR für eine Position in der Aktie der gleichen Firma. Unsere Stichprobe umfasst CDS ? Aktien Paare für 86 aktiv gehandelte Firmen im Zeitraum von März 2003 bis Oktober 2006. Wir finden, dass der VaR der Aktie meistens den VaR der CDS - Position deutlich übersteigt. Die Distanz zwischen dem CDS - VaR und dem Aktien - VaR ist jedoch bei Firmen mit hohem Kreditrisiko deutlich geringer. Die Distanz sinkt auch bei längeren Haltedauern. Wir beobachten weiter eine positive Korrelation zwischen dem CDS - VaR und dem Aktien - VaR.Credit default swap,Value at Risk,Capital structure arbitrage

An analysis of euro area sovereign CDS and their relation with government bonds

This paper studies the relative pricing of euro area sovereign CDS and the underlying government bonds. Our sample comprises weekly CDS and bond spreads of ten euro area countries for the period from January 2006 to June 2010. We first compare the determinants of CDS spreads and bond spreads and test how the crisis has affected market pricing. Then we analyse the ‘basis’ between CDS spreads and bond spreads and which factors drive pricing differences between the two markets. Our first main finding is that the recent repricing of sovereign credit risk in the CDS market seems mostly due to common factors. Second, since September 2008, CDS spreads have on average exceeded bond spreads, which may have been due to ‘flight to liquidity’ effects and limits to arbitrage. Third, since September 2008, market integration for bonds and CDS varies across countries: In half of the sample countries, price discovery takes place in the CDS market and in the other half, price discovery is observed in the bond market. JEL Classification: G00, G01CDS, Credit Spread, financial crisis, Government bond, limits to arbitrage

On the predictability of common risk factors in the US and UK interest rate swap markets: Evidence from non-linear and linear models.

This paper explores the ability of common risk factors to predict the dynamics of US and UK interest rate swap spreads within a linear and a non-linear framework. We reject linearity for the US and UK swap spreads in favour of a regime-switching smooth transition vector autoregressive (STVAR) model, where the switching between regimes is controlled by the slope of the US term structure of interest rates. The first regime is characterised by a "flat" term structure of US interest rates, while the alternative is characterised by an "upward" sloping US term structure. We compare the ability of the STVAR model to predict swap spreads with that of a non-linear nearest-neighbours model as well as that of linear AR and VAR models. We find some evidence that the nearest-neighbours and STVAR models predict better than the linear AR and VAR models. However, the evidence is not overwhelming as it is sensitive to swap spread maturity. We also find that within the non-linear class of models, the nearest-neighbours model predicts better than the STVAR model US swap spreads in periods of increasing risk conditions and UK swap spreads in periods of decreasing risk conditions.Interest rate swap spreads, term structure of interest rates, regime switching, smooth transition models, nearest-neighbours, forecasting.