3,611 research outputs found
Can electoral popularity be predicted using socially generated big data?
Today, our more-than-ever digital lives leave significant footprints in
cyberspace. Large scale collections of these socially generated footprints,
often known as big data, could help us to re-investigate different aspects of
our social collective behaviour in a quantitative framework. In this
contribution we discuss one such possibility: the monitoring and predicting of
popularity dynamics of candidates and parties through the analysis of socially
generated data on the web during electoral campaigns. Such data offer
considerable possibility for improving our awareness of popularity dynamics.
However they also suffer from significant drawbacks in terms of
representativeness and generalisability. In this paper we discuss potential
ways around such problems, suggesting the nature of different political systems
and contexts might lend differing levels of predictive power to certain types
of data source. We offer an initial exploratory test of these ideas, focussing
on two data streams, Wikipedia page views and Google search queries. On the
basis of this data, we present popularity dynamics from real case examples of
recent elections in three different countries.Comment: To appear in Information Technolog
Early Prediction of Movie Box Office Success based on Wikipedia Activity Big Data
Use of socially generated "big data" to access information about collective
states of the minds in human societies has become a new paradigm in the
emerging field of computational social science. A natural application of this
would be the prediction of the society's reaction to a new product in the sense
of popularity and adoption rate. However, bridging the gap between "real time
monitoring" and "early predicting" remains a big challenge. Here we report on
an endeavor to build a minimalistic predictive model for the financial success
of movies based on collective activity data of online users. We show that the
popularity of a movie can be predicted much before its release by measuring and
analyzing the activity level of editors and viewers of the corresponding entry
to the movie in Wikipedia, the well-known online encyclopedia.Comment: 13 pages, Including Supporting Information, 7 Figures, Download the
dataset from: http://wwm.phy.bme.hu/SupplementaryDataS1.zi
Assessing candidate preference through web browsing history
Predicting election outcomes is of considerable interest to candidates, political scientists, and the public at large. We propose the use of Web browsing history as a new indicator of candidate preference among the electorate, one that has potential to overcome a number of the drawbacks of election polls. However, there are a number of challenges that must be overcome to effectively use Web browsing for assessing candidate preference—including the lack of suitable ground truth data and the heterogeneity of user populations in time and space. We address these challenges, and show that the resulting methods can shed considerable light on the dynamics of voters’ candidate preferences in ways that are difficult to achieve using polls.Accepted manuscrip
Tactics and Tallies: A Study of the 2016 U.S. Presidential Campaign Using Twitter 'Likes'
We propose a framework to measure, evaluate, and rank campaign effectiveness
in the ongoing 2016 U.S. presidential election. Using Twitter data collected
from Sept. 2015 to Jan. 2016, we first uncover the tweeting tactics of the
candidates and second, using negative binomial regression and exploiting the
variations in 'likes,' we evaluate the effectiveness of these tactics. Thirdly,
we rank the candidates' campaign tactics by calculating the conditional
expectation of their generated 'likes.'
We show that while Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio put much weight on President
Obama, this tactic is not being well received by their supporters. We
demonstrate that Hillary Clinton's tactic of linking herself to President Obama
resonates well with her supporters but the same is not true for Bernie Sanders.
In addition, we show that Donald Trump is a major topic for all the other
candidates and that the women issue is equally emphasized in Sanders' campaign
as in Clinton's.
Finally, we suggest two ways that politicians can use the feedback mechanism
in social media to improve their campaign: (1) use feedback from social media
to improve campaign tactics within social media; (2) prototype policies and
test the public response from the social media.Comment: ICWSM 2017 - News and Public Opinion Worksho
Influence of augmented humans in online interactions during voting events
The advent of the digital era provided a fertile ground for the development
of virtual societies, complex systems influencing real-world dynamics.
Understanding online human behavior and its relevance beyond the digital
boundaries is still an open challenge. Here we show that online social
interactions during a massive voting event can be used to build an accurate map
of real-world political parties and electoral ranks. We provide evidence that
information flow and collective attention are often driven by a special class
of highly influential users, that we name "augmented humans", who exploit
thousands of automated agents, also known as bots, for enhancing their online
influence. We show that augmented humans generate deep information cascades, to
the same extent of news media and other broadcasters, while they uniformly
infiltrate across the full range of identified groups. Digital augmentation
represents the cyber-physical counterpart of the human desire to acquire power
within social systems.Comment: 11 page
On predictability of rare events leveraging social media: a machine learning perspective
Information extracted from social media streams has been leveraged to
forecast the outcome of a large number of real-world events, from political
elections to stock market fluctuations. An increasing amount of studies
demonstrates how the analysis of social media conversations provides cheap
access to the wisdom of the crowd. However, extents and contexts in which such
forecasting power can be effectively leveraged are still unverified at least in
a systematic way. It is also unclear how social-media-based predictions compare
to those based on alternative information sources. To address these issues,
here we develop a machine learning framework that leverages social media
streams to automatically identify and predict the outcomes of soccer matches.
We focus in particular on matches in which at least one of the possible
outcomes is deemed as highly unlikely by professional bookmakers. We argue that
sport events offer a systematic approach for testing the predictive power of
social media, and allow to compare such power against the rigorous baselines
set by external sources. Despite such strict baselines, our framework yields
above 8% marginal profit when used to inform simple betting strategies. The
system is based on real-time sentiment analysis and exploits data collected
immediately before the games, allowing for informed bets. We discuss the
rationale behind our approach, describe the learning framework, its prediction
performance and the return it provides as compared to a set of betting
strategies. To test our framework we use both historical Twitter data from the
2014 FIFA World Cup games, and real-time Twitter data collected by monitoring
the conversations about all soccer matches of four major European tournaments
(FA Premier League, Serie A, La Liga, and Bundesliga), and the 2014 UEFA
Champions League, during the period between Oct. 25th 2014 and Nov. 26th 2014.Comment: 10 pages, 10 tables, 8 figure
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