[[alternative]]Limited Failure-Censored Life Test for the Weibull Distribution

計畫編號：NSC88-2118-M032-008研究期間：199808~199907研究經費：143,000[[sponsorship]]行政院國家科學委員

Prediction of remaining life of power transformers based on left truncated and right censored lifetime data

Prediction of the remaining life of high-voltage power transformers is an important issue for energy companies because of the need for planning maintenance and capital expenditures. Lifetime data for such transformers are complicated because transformer lifetimes can extend over many decades and transformer designs and manufacturing practices have evolved. We were asked to develop statistically-based predictions for the lifetimes of an energy company's fleet of high-voltage transmission and distribution transformers. The company's data records begin in 1980, providing information on installation and failure dates of transformers. Although the dataset contains many units that were installed before 1980, there is no information about units that were installed and failed before 1980. Thus, the data are left truncated and right censored. We use a parametric lifetime model to describe the lifetime distribution of individual transformers. We develop a statistical procedure, based on age-adjusted life distributions, for computing a prediction interval for remaining life for individual transformers now in service. We then extend these ideas to provide predictions and prediction intervals for the cumulative number of failures, over a range of time, for the overall fleet of transformers.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/00-AOAS231 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Calculation of Weibull strength parameters and Batdorf flow-density constants for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics

The calculation of shape and scale parameters of the two-parameter Weibull distribution is described using the least-squares analysis and maximum likelihood methods for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics with complete and censored samples. Detailed procedures are given for evaluating 90 percent confidence intervals for maximum likelihood estimates of shape and scale parameters, the unbiased estimates of the shape parameters, and the Weibull mean values and corresponding standard deviations. Furthermore, the necessary steps are described for detecting outliers and for calculating the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit statistics and 90 percent confidence bands about the Weibull distribution. It also shows how to calculate the Batdorf flaw-density constants by uing the Weibull distribution statistical parameters. The techniques described were verified with several example problems, from the open literature, and were coded. The techniques described were verified with several example problems from the open literature, and were coded in the Structural Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation (SCARE) design program

Mechanical behavior and failure phenomenon of an in situ-toughened silicon nitride

The Weibull modulus, fracture toughness and crack growth resistance of an in-situ toughened, silicon nitride material used to manufacture a turbine combustor were determined from room temperature to 1371 C. The material exhibited an elongated grain structure that resulted in improved fracture toughness, nonlinear crack growth resistance, and good elevated temperature strength. However, low temperature strength was limited by grains of excessive length (30 to 100 microns). These excessively long grains were surrounded by regions rich in sintering additives

Managing Well Integrity using Reliability Based Models

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