On predictability of rare events leveraging social media: a machine learning perspective

Information extracted from social media streams has been leveraged to forecast the outcome of a large number of real-world events, from political elections to stock market fluctuations. An increasing amount of studies demonstrates how the analysis of social media conversations provides cheap access to the wisdom of the crowd. However, extents and contexts in which such forecasting power can be effectively leveraged are still unverified at least in a systematic way. It is also unclear how social-media-based predictions compare to those based on alternative information sources. To address these issues, here we develop a machine learning framework that leverages social media streams to automatically identify and predict the outcomes of soccer matches. We focus in particular on matches in which at least one of the possible outcomes is deemed as highly unlikely by professional bookmakers. We argue that sport events offer a systematic approach for testing the predictive power of social media, and allow to compare such power against the rigorous baselines set by external sources. Despite such strict baselines, our framework yields above 8% marginal profit when used to inform simple betting strategies. The system is based on real-time sentiment analysis and exploits data collected immediately before the games, allowing for informed bets. We discuss the rationale behind our approach, describe the learning framework, its prediction performance and the return it provides as compared to a set of betting strategies. To test our framework we use both historical Twitter data from the 2014 FIFA World Cup games, and real-time Twitter data collected by monitoring the conversations about all soccer matches of four major European tournaments (FA Premier League, Serie A, La Liga, and Bundesliga), and the 2014 UEFA Champions League, during the period between Oct. 25th 2014 and Nov. 26th 2014.Comment: 10 pages, 10 tables, 8 figure

Crowdboard: Augmenting in-person idea generation with real-time crowds

Online crowds can help infuse creativity into the design process, but traditional strategies for leveraging them, such as large-scale ideation platforms, require time and organizational effort in order to obtain results. We propose a new method for crowd-based ideation that simplifies the process by having smaller crowds join in-person ideators during synchronous creative sessions. Our system Crowdboard allows online crowds to provide real-time creative input during early-stage design activities, such as brainstorming or concept mapping. The system enables in-person ideators to develop ideas on a physical or digital whiteboard which is augmented with real-time creative input from online participants who see and hear a live broadcast of the meeting. We validate Crowdboard via two user studies in which dyads of in-person ideators brainstormed with the help of crowd ideators. Our studies suggest that Crowdboard can effectively enhance ongoing brainstorming sessions, but also revealed key challenges for how to better facilitate interactions among in-person and crowd ideator

Can we Help the Bots? Towards an Evaluation of their Performance and the Creation of Human Enhanced Artifact for Emotions De-escalation

We propose a hybrid intelligence socio-technical artifact that identifies a threshold where the chatbot requires human intervention in order to continue to perform at an appropriate level to achieve the pre-defined objective of the system. We leverage the Yield Shift Theory of Satisfaction, the Intervention Theory and the Nudge Theory to develop meta requirements and design principles for this system. We discuss the first iteration of implementation and evaluation of the artifact components

Growing philanthropy through collaboration: The landscape of giving circles in the United Kingdom and Ireland

Recent efforts to grow philanthropy in the United Kingdom (UK) and Ireland have focused on increasing the number of donors and size of donations, rather than on developing new methods of giving, despite this latter approach sharing the same objective. This article explores the rise of one such new vehicle - giving circles - defined as groups of individuals who donate money and/or time and have a say in the distribution of these resources. Scholarship on giving circles has largely focused on the United States (US), yet they are found increasingly in other parts of the world. This article focuses on how giving circles in the UK and Ireland are structured and administered; how and why they are formed; their key activities; typical characteristics of members; and why people join. It concludes by noting distinctive characteristics of giving circles in the UK and Ireland and setting out a future programme to further understanding in this area