18,558 research outputs found
Predicting Diffusion Reach Probabilities via Representation Learning on Social Networks
Diffusion reach probability between two nodes on a network is defined as the
probability of a cascade originating from one node reaching to another node. An
infinite number of cascades would enable calculation of true diffusion reach
probabilities between any two nodes. However, there exists only a finite number
of cascades and one usually has access only to a small portion of all available
cascades. In this work, we addressed the problem of estimating diffusion reach
probabilities given only a limited number of cascades and partial information
about underlying network structure. Our proposed strategy employs node
representation learning to generate and feed node embeddings into machine
learning algorithms to create models that predict diffusion reach
probabilities. We provide experimental analysis using synthetically generated
cascades on two real-world social networks. Results show that proposed method
is superior to using values calculated from available cascades when the portion
of cascades is small
Predicting Successful Memes using Network and Community Structure
We investigate the predictability of successful memes using their early
spreading patterns in the underlying social networks. We propose and analyze a
comprehensive set of features and develop an accurate model to predict future
popularity of a meme given its early spreading patterns. Our paper provides the
first comprehensive comparison of existing predictive frameworks. We categorize
our features into three groups: influence of early adopters, community
concentration, and characteristics of adoption time series. We find that
features based on community structure are the most powerful predictors of
future success. We also find that early popularity of a meme is not a good
predictor of its future popularity, contrary to common belief. Our methods
outperform other approaches, particularly in the task of detecting very popular
or unpopular memes.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, 2 tables. Proceedings of 8th AAAI Intl. Conf. on
Weblogs and social media (ICWSM 2014
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