Probabilistic Programming Concepts

A multitude of different probabilistic programming languages exists today, all extending a traditional programming language with primitives to support modeling of complex, structured probability distributions. Each of these languages employs its own probabilistic primitives, and comes with a particular syntax, semantics and inference procedure. This makes it hard to understand the underlying programming concepts and appreciate the differences between the different languages. To obtain a better understanding of probabilistic programming, we identify a number of core programming concepts underlying the primitives used by various probabilistic languages, discuss the execution mechanisms that they require and use these to position state-of-the-art probabilistic languages and their implementation. While doing so, we focus on probabilistic extensions of logic programming languages such as Prolog, which have been developed since more than 20 years

Probabilistic abductive logic programming using Dirichlet priors

Probabilistic programming is an area of research that aims to develop general inference algorithms for probabilistic models expressed as probabilistic programs whose execution corresponds to inferring the parameters of those models. In this paper, we introduce a probabilistic programming language (PPL) based on abductive logic programming for performing inference in probabilistic models involving categorical distributions with Dirichlet priors. We encode these models as abductive logic programs enriched with probabilistic definitions and queries, and show how to execute and compile them to boolean formulas. Using the latter, we perform generalized inference using one of two proposed Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithms: an adaptation of uncollapsed Gibbs sampling from related work and a novel collapsed Gibbs sampling (CGS). We show that CGS converges faster than the uncollapsed version on a latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) task using synthetic data. On similar data, we compare our PPL with LDA-specific algorithms and other PPLs. We find that all methods, except one, perform similarly and that the more expressive the PPL, the slower it is. We illustrate applications of our PPL on real data in two variants of LDA models (Seed and Cluster LDA), and in the repeated insertion model (RIM). In the latter, our PPL yields similar conclusions to inference with EM for Mallows models

The PITA System: Tabling and Answer Subsumption for Reasoning under Uncertainty

Many real world domains require the representation of a measure of uncertainty. The most common such representation is probability, and the combination of probability with logic programs has given rise to the field of Probabilistic Logic Programming (PLP), leading to languages such as the Independent Choice Logic, Logic Programs with Annotated Disjunctions (LPADs), Problog, PRISM and others. These languages share a similar distribution semantics, and methods have been devised to translate programs between these languages. The complexity of computing the probability of queries to these general PLP programs is very high due to the need to combine the probabilities of explanations that may not be exclusive. As one alternative, the PRISM system reduces the complexity of query answering by restricting the form of programs it can evaluate. As an entirely different alternative, Possibilistic Logic Programs adopt a simpler metric of uncertainty than probability. Each of these approaches -- general PLP, restricted PLP, and Possibilistic Logic Programming -- can be useful in different domains depending on the form of uncertainty to be represented, on the form of programs needed to model problems, and on the scale of the problems to be solved. In this paper, we show how the PITA system, which originally supported the general PLP language of LPADs, can also efficiently support restricted PLP and Possibilistic Logic Programs. PITA relies on tabling with answer subsumption and consists of a transformation along with an API for library functions that interface with answer subsumption

Preferred Qualifications: Community College Teaching Experience

Given the extremely tight job market for professional philosophers, more Ph.Ds. are beginning to consider jobs at the community college level. There are good reasons for considering this avenue: if you enjoy teaching, the job focus is on teaching, and you evaluation and tenure depend primarily on your performance in the classroom; if the prospect of working with a very diverse student body, both in terms of background and skill set, appeals to you; if the location in which you live is large part of job satisfaction, there is a far greater ability to get a job in an urban area via the community college track. However, to get a job at a community college, one thing is prized above all: teaching experience. Yet this is where the newly minted graduate student may well be at a disadvantage in the community college hiring process. In this article I seek to address the issue of how to become a strong candidate for a community college position right out of graduate school

Parameter Learning of Logic Programs for Symbolic-Statistical Modeling

We propose a logical/mathematical framework for statistical parameter learning of parameterized logic programs, i.e. definite clause programs containing probabilistic facts with a parameterized distribution. It extends the traditional least Herbrand model semantics in logic programming to distribution semantics, possible world semantics with a probability distribution which is unconditionally applicable to arbitrary logic programs including ones for HMMs, PCFGs and Bayesian networks. We also propose a new EM algorithm, the graphical EM algorithm, that runs for a class of parameterized logic programs representing sequential decision processes where each decision is exclusive and independent. It runs on a new data structure called support graphs describing the logical relationship between observations and their explanations, and learns parameters by computing inside and outside probability generalized for logic programs. The complexity analysis shows that when combined with OLDT search for all explanations for observations, the graphical EM algorithm, despite its generality, has the same time complexity as existing EM algorithms, i.e. the Baum-Welch algorithm for HMMs, the Inside-Outside algorithm for PCFGs, and the one for singly connected Bayesian networks that have been developed independently in each research field. Learning experiments with PCFGs using two corpora of moderate size indicate that the graphical EM algorithm can significantly outperform the Inside-Outside algorithm

Lilly Endowment, Inc. - 2008 Annual Report

Contains board chair and president's message; program information; education and religion grantee profiles; grants list; grant guidelines; financial statements; and lists of board members and officers