Learning user-specific latent influence and susceptibility from information cascades

Predicting cascade dynamics has important implications for understanding information propagation and launching viral marketing. Previous works mainly adopt a pair-wise manner, modeling the propagation probability between pairs of users using n^2 independent parameters for n users. Consequently, these models suffer from severe overfitting problem, specially for pairs of users without direct interactions, limiting their prediction accuracy. Here we propose to model the cascade dynamics by learning two low-dimensional user-specific vectors from observed cascades, capturing their influence and susceptibility respectively. This model requires much less parameters and thus could combat overfitting problem. Moreover, this model could naturally model context-dependent factors like cumulative effect in information propagation. Extensive experiments on synthetic dataset and a large-scale microblogging dataset demonstrate that this model outperforms the existing pair-wise models at predicting cascade dynamics, cascade size, and "who will be retweeted".Comment: from The 29th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-2015

Use of a controlled experiment and computational models to measure the impact of sequential peer exposures on decision making

It is widely believed that one's peers influence product adoption behaviors. This relationship has been linked to the number of signals a decision-maker receives in a social network. But it is unclear if these same principles hold when the pattern by which it receives these signals vary and when peer influence is directed towards choices which are not optimal. To investigate that, we manipulate social signal exposure in an online controlled experiment using a game with human participants. Each participant in the game makes a decision among choices with differing utilities. We observe the following: (1) even in the presence of monetary risks and previously acquired knowledge of the choices, decision-makers tend to deviate from the obvious optimal decision when their peers make similar decision which we call the influence decision, (2) when the quantity of social signals vary over time, the forwarding probability of the influence decision and therefore being responsive to social influence does not necessarily correlate proportionally to the absolute quantity of signals. To better understand how these rules of peer influence could be used in modeling applications of real world diffusion and in networked environments, we use our behavioral findings to simulate spreading dynamics in real world case studies. We specifically try to see how cumulative influence plays out in the presence of user uncertainty and measure its outcome on rumor diffusion, which we model as an example of sub-optimal choice diffusion. Together, our simulation results indicate that sequential peer effects from the influence decision overcomes individual uncertainty to guide faster rumor diffusion over time. However, when the rate of diffusion is slow in the beginning, user uncertainty can have a substantial role compared to peer influence in deciding the adoption trajectory of a piece of questionable information

Independent Asymmetric Embedding for Cascade Prediction on Social Networks

The prediction for information diffusion on social networks has great practical significance in marketing and public opinion control. Cascade prediction aims to predict the individuals who will potentially repost the message on the social network. One kind of methods either exploit demographical, structural, and temporal features for prediction, or explicitly rely on particular information diffusion models. The other kind of models are fully data-driven and do not require a global network structure. Thus massive diffusion prediction models based on network embedding are proposed. These models embed the users into the latent space using their cascade information, but are lack of consideration for the intervene among users when embedding. In this paper, we propose an independent asymmetric embedding method to learn social embedding for cascade prediction. Different from existing methods, our method embeds each individual into one latent influence space and multiple latent susceptibility spaces. Furthermore, our method captures the co-occurrence regulation of user combination in cascades to improve the calculating effectiveness. The results of extensive experiments conducted on real-world datasets verify both the predictive accuracy and cost-effectiveness of our approach

Longitudinal Modeling of Social Media with Hawkes Process based on Users and Networks

Online social networks provide a platform for sharing information at an unprecedented scale. Users generate information which propagates across the network resulting in information cascades. In this paper, we study the evolution of information cascades in Twitter using a point process model of user activity. We develop several Hawkes process models considering various properties including conversational structure, users’ connections and general features of users including the textual information, and show how they are helpful in modeling the social network activity. We consider low-rank embeddings of users and user features, and learn the features helpful in identifying the influence and susceptibility of users. Evaluation on Twitter data sets associated with civil unrest shows that incorporating richer properties improves the performance in predicting future activity of users and memes

Influence Maximization with Fairness at Scale (Extended Version)

In this paper, we revisit the problem of influence maximization with fairness, which aims to select k influential nodes to maximise the spread of information in a network, while ensuring that selected sensitive user attributes are fairly affected, i.e., are proportionally similar between the original network and the affected users. Recent studies on this problem focused only on extremely small networks, hence the challenge remains on how to achieve a scalable solution, applicable to networks with millions or billions of nodes. We propose an approach that is based on learning node representations for fair spread from diffusion cascades, instead of the social connectivity s.t. we can deal with very large graphs. We propose two data-driven approaches: (a) fairness-based participant sampling (FPS), and (b) fairness as context (FAC). Spread related user features, such as the probability of diffusing information to others, are derived from the historical information cascades, using a deep neural network. The extracted features are then used in selecting influencers that maximize the influence spread, while being also fair with respect to the chosen sensitive attributes. In FPS, fairness and cascade length information are considered independently in the decision-making process, while FAC considers these information facets jointly and considers correlations between them. The proposed algorithms are generic and represent the first policy-driven solutions that can be applied to arbitrary sets of sensitive attributes at scale. We evaluate the performance of our solutions on a real-world public dataset (Sina Weibo) and on a hybrid real-synthethic dataset (Digg), which exhibit all the facets that we exploit, namely diffusion network, diffusion traces, and user profiles. These experiments show that our methods outperform the state-the-art solutions in terms of spread, fairness, and scalability