Popularity prediction for social media over arbitrary time horizons

Predicting the popularity of social media content in real time requires approaches that efficiently operate at global scale. Popularity prediction is important for many applications, including detection of harmful viral content to enable timely content moderation. The prediction task is difficult because views result from interactions between user interests, content features, resharing, feed ranking, and network structure. We consider the problem of accurately predicting popularity both at any given prediction time since a content item’s creation and for arbitrary time horizons into the future. In order to achieve high accuracy for different prediction time horizons, it is essential for models to use static features (of content and user) as well as observed popularity growth up to prediction time. We propose a feature-based approach based on a self-excited Hawkes point process model, which involves prediction of the con-tent’s popularity at one or more reference horizons in tandem with a point predictor of an effective growth parameter that reflects the timescale of popularity growth. This results in a highly scalable method for popularity prediction over arbitrary prediction time horizons that also achieves a high degree of accuracy, compared to several leading baselines, on a dataset of public page content on Facebook over a two-month period, covering billions of content views and hundreds of thousands of distinct content items. The model has shown competitive prediction accuracy against a strong baseline that consists of separately trained models for specific prediction time horizons

Characterizing the Use of Images in State-Sponsored Information Warfare Operations by Russian Trolls on Twitter

State-sponsored organizations are increasingly linked to efforts aimed to exploit social media for information warfare and manipulating public opinion. Typically, their activities rely on a number of social network accounts they control, aka trolls, that post and interact with other users disguised as "regular" users. These accounts often use images and memes, along with textual content, in order to increase the engagement and the credibility of their posts. In this paper, we present the first study of images shared by state-sponsored accounts by analyzing a ground truth dataset of 1.8M images posted to Twitter by accounts controlled by the Russian Internet Research Agency. First, we analyze the content of the images as well as their posting activity. Then, using Hawkes Processes, we quantify their influence on popular Web communities like Twitter, Reddit, 4chan's Politically Incorrect board (/pol/), and Gab, with respect to the dissemination of images. We find that the extensive image posting activity of Russian trolls coincides with real-world events (e.g., the Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville), and shed light on their targets as well as the content disseminated via images. Finally, we show that the trolls were more effective in disseminating politics-related imagery than other images.Comment: To appear at the 14th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM 2020). Please cite accordingl