Factors influencing learner driver experiences [Road Safety Grant Report 2009-003]

When compared with more experienced drivers, new drivers have a higher crash risk. This study examined the experiences of learner drivers in Queensland and New South Wales in order to develop an understanding of the factors that influenced them while learning to drive. This will enable the development of more effective licensing systems. The research was informed by a number of heoretical perspectives, particularly social learning theory. Participants were recruited from driver licensing centres as soon as they passed their practical driving test to attain a provisional licence. Of those approached, 392 new drivers from capital cities and regional locations in Queensland and New South Wales completed a 35 minute telephone interview that collected information on a range of personal, social, environmental and socio-demographic factors. Participants were obtaining their licence before several changes to the licensing systems in both Queensland and New South Wales were made in 2007. Several implications for countermeasure development resulted from this research. These included ensuring licensing authorities carefully consider mandating a minimum number of hour of practice as it may inadvertently suppress the amount of practice that some learners obtain. Licensing authorities should consider the use of logbooks for learner drivers, even if there is no minimum amount of supervised practice required as it may assist learners and their supervisors structure their practice more effectively. This research also found that the confidence of learner drivers increases between when they first obtain their learner licence and when they obtain their provisional licence. This is an important issue requiring further attention by licensing authorities

Common Territory? : Comparing the IMP Approach with Economic Geography

The IMP research tradition has always been open to the cross-fertilisation of ideas with other social science disciplines that study similar phenomena. Recent years have seen a growing interest among IMP researchers in phenomena such as regional strategic networks, spatial clusters and innovation and new business development in networks. IMP papers published on these topics are increasingly citing conceptual frameworks and empirical findings from the field of economic geography. This paper discusses the development of IMP thought and the development of thought in economic geography (particularly evolutionary economic geography), and compares their approaches to the analysis of regional phenomena. The goal is to identify key ideas from economic geography that have been under-exploited in IMP research, in order to suggest original new approaches available to IMP researchers interested in these fields. A number of such ideas are explored: proximity as a multi-dimensional and multi-faceted concept; the distinction between, and relative importance of, learning activities arising automatically from being embedded in a community (local or regional buzz) and learning activities arising from positive investment in channels of communication (pipelines); the concept of relational capital developed by economic geographers; and, conceptualisations of externalities commonly used in the study of spatial clustersPeer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

On Cognitive Preferences and the Plausibility of Rule-based Models

It is conventional wisdom in machine learning and data mining that logical models such as rule sets are more interpretable than other models, and that among such rule-based models, simpler models are more interpretable than more complex ones. In this position paper, we question this latter assumption by focusing on one particular aspect of interpretability, namely the plausibility of models. Roughly speaking, we equate the plausibility of a model with the likeliness that a user accepts it as an explanation for a prediction. In particular, we argue that, all other things being equal, longer explanations may be more convincing than shorter ones, and that the predominant bias for shorter models, which is typically necessary for learning powerful discriminative models, may not be suitable when it comes to user acceptance of the learned models. To that end, we first recapitulate evidence for and against this postulate, and then report the results of an evaluation in a crowd-sourcing study based on about 3.000 judgments. The results do not reveal a strong preference for simple rules, whereas we can observe a weak preference for longer rules in some domains. We then relate these results to well-known cognitive biases such as the conjunction fallacy, the representative heuristic, or the recogition heuristic, and investigate their relation to rule length and plausibility.Comment: V4: Another rewrite of section on interpretability to clarify focus on plausibility and relation to interpretability, comprehensibility, and justifiabilit

Principles and Concepts of Agent-Based Modelling for Developing Geospatial Simulations

The aim of this paper is to outline fundamental concepts and principles of the Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) paradigm, with particular reference to the development of geospatial simulations. The paper begins with a brief definition of modelling, followed by a classification of model types, and a comment regarding a shift (in certain circumstances) towards modelling systems at the individual-level. In particular, automata approaches (e.g. Cellular Automata, CA, and ABM) have been particularly popular, with ABM moving to the fore. A definition of agents and agent-based models is given; identifying their advantages and disadvantages, especially in relation to geospatial modelling. The potential use of agent-based models is discussed, and how-to instructions for developing an agent-based model are provided. Types of simulation / modelling systems available for ABM are defined, supplemented with criteria to consider before choosing a particular system for a modelling endeavour. Information pertaining to a selection of simulation / modelling systems (Swarm, MASON, Repast, StarLogo, NetLogo, OBEUS, AgentSheets and AnyLogic) is provided, categorised by their licensing policy (open source, shareware / freeware and proprietary systems). The evaluation (i.e. verification, calibration, validation and analysis) of agent-based models and their output is examined, and noteworthy applications are discussed.Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are a particularly useful medium for representing model input and output of a geospatial nature. However, GIS are not well suited to dynamic modelling (e.g. ABM). In particular, problems of representing time and change within GIS are highlighted. Consequently, this paper explores the opportunity of linking (through coupling or integration / embedding) a GIS with a simulation / modelling system purposely built, and therefore better suited to supporting the requirements of ABM. This paper concludes with a synthesis of the discussion that has proceeded. The aim of this paper is to outline fundamental concepts and principles of the Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) paradigm, with particular reference to the development of geospatial simulations. The paper begins with a brief definition of modelling, followed by a classification of model types, and a comment regarding a shift (in certain circumstances) towards modelling systems at the individual-level. In particular, automata approaches (e.g. Cellular Automata, CA, and ABM) have been particularly popular, with ABM moving to the fore. A definition of agents and agent-based models is given; identifying their advantages and disadvantages, especially in relation to geospatial modelling. The potential use of agent-based models is discussed, and how-to instructions for developing an agent-based model are provided. Types of simulation / modelling systems available for ABM are defined, supplemented with criteria to consider before choosing a particular system for a modelling endeavour. Information pertaining to a selection of simulation / modelling systems (Swarm, MASON, Repast, StarLogo, NetLogo, OBEUS, AgentSheets and AnyLogic) is provided, categorised by their licensing policy (open source, shareware / freeware and proprietary systems). The evaluation (i.e. verification, calibration, validation and analysis) of agent-based models and their output is examined, and noteworthy applications are discussed.Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are a particularly useful medium for representing model input and output of a geospatial nature. However, GIS are not well suited to dynamic modelling (e.g. ABM). In particular, problems of representing time and change within GIS are highlighted. Consequently, this paper explores the opportunity of linking (through coupling or integration / embedding) a GIS with a simulation / modelling system purposely built, and therefore better suited to supporting the requirements of ABM. This paper concludes with a synthesis of the discussion that has proceeded