Large Scale Daily Contacts and Mobility Model - an Individual-Based Countrywide Simulation Study for Poland

In this study we describe a simulation platform used to create a virtual society of Poland, with a particular emphasis on contact patterns arising from daily commuting to schools or workplaces. In order to reproduce the map of contacts, we are using a geo-referenced Agent Based Model. Within this framework, we propose a set of different stochastic algorithms, utilizing available aggregated census data. Based on this model system, we present selected statistical analysis, such as the accessibility of schools or the location of rescue service units. This platform will serve as a base for further large scale epidemiological and transportation simulation studies. However, the first approach to a simple, country-wide transportation model is also presented here. The application scope of the platform extends beyond the simulations of epidemic or transportation, and pertains to any situation where there are no easily available means, other than computer simulations, to conduct large scale investigations of complex population dynamics.Agent Based Model, Educational Availability, Daily Commuting, Social Network, Virtual Society Simulations

Reconstructing the 2003/2004 H3N2 influenza epidemic in Switzerland with a spatially explicit, individual-based model

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Simulation models of influenza spread play an important role for pandemic preparedness. However, as the world has not faced a severe pandemic for decades, except the rather mild H1N1 one in 2009, pandemic influenza models are inherently hypothetical and validation is, thus, difficult. We aim at reconstructing a recent seasonal influenza epidemic that occurred in Switzerland and deem this to be a promising validation strategy for models of influenza spread. METHODS: We present a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model of influenza spread. The simulation model bases upon (i) simulated human travel data, (ii) data on human contact patterns and (iii) empirical knowledge on the epidemiology of influenza. For model validation we compare the simulation outcomes with empirical knowledge regarding (i) the shape of the epidemic curve, overall infection rate and reproduction number, (ii) age-dependent infection rates and time of infection, (iii) spatial patterns. RESULTS: The simulation model is capable of reproducing the shape of the 2003/2004 H3N2 epidemic curve of Switzerland and generates an overall infection rate (14.9 percent) and reproduction numbers (between 1.2 and 1.3), which are realistic for seasonal influenza epidemics. Age and spatial patterns observed in empirical data are also reflected by the model: Highest infection rates are in children between 5 and 14 and the disease spreads along the main transport axes from west to east. CONCLUSIONS: We show that finding evidence for the validity of simulation models of influenza spread by challenging them with seasonal influenza outbreak data is possible and promising. Simulation models for pandemic spread gain more credibility if they are able to reproduce seasonal influenza outbreaks. For more robust modelling of seasonal influenza, serological data complementing sentinel information would be beneficia

Artificial intelligence framework for threat assessment and containment for covid-19 and future epidemics while mitigating the socioeconomic impact to women, children, and underprivileged groups

With the emergency situation that arises with COVID-19, the intense containment strategies adopted by many countries had little or no consideration towards socio-economic ramifications or the impact on women, children, socioeconomically underprivileged groups. The existence of many adverse impacts raises questions on the approaches taken and demands proper analysis, scrutiny and review of the policies. Therefore, a framework was developed using the artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to detect, model, and predict the behaviour of the COVID-19 pandemic containment strategies, understanding the socio-economic impact of these strategies on identified diverse vulnerable groups, and the development of AI-based solutions, to predict and manage a future spread of COVID or similar infectious disease outbreaks while mitigating the social and economic toil. Based on generated behaviour and movements, AI tools were developed to conduct contact tracing and socio-economic impact mitigation actions in a more informed, socially conscious and responsible manner in the case of the next wave of COVID-19 infections or a different future infectious disease.Swedish International Development Cooperation Agenc

Lessons from countries implementing find, test, trace, isolation and support policies in the rapid response of the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To systematically learn lessons from the experiences of countries implementing find, test, trace, isolate, support (FTTIS) in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN, DATA SOURCES AND ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: We searched MEDLINE (PubMed), Cochrane Library, SCOPUS and JSTOR, initially between 31 May 2019 and 21 January 2021. Research articles and reviews on the use of contact tracing, testing, self-isolation and quarantine for COVID-19 management were included in the review. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: We extracted information including study objective, design, methods, main findings and implications. These were tabulated and a narrative synthesis was undertaken given the diverse research designs, methods and implications. RESULTS: We identified and included 118 eligible studies. We identified the core elements of an effective find, test, trace, isolate, support (FTTIS) system needed to interrupt the spread of a novel infectious disease, where treatment or vaccination was not yet available, as pertained in the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. We report methods used to shorten case finding time, improve accuracy and efficiency of tests, coordinate stakeholders and actors involved in an FTTIS system, support individuals isolating and make appropriate use of digital tools. CONCLUSIONS: We identified in our systematic review the key components of an FTTIS system. These include border controls, restricted entry, inbound traveller quarantine and comprehensive case finding; repeated testing to minimise false diagnoses and pooled testing in resource-limited circumstances; extended quarantine period and the use of digital tools for contact tracing and self-isolation. Support for mental or physical health and livelihoods is needed for individuals undergoing self-isolation/quarantine. An integrated system with rolling-wave planning can best use effective FTTIS tools to respond to the fast-changing COVID-19 pandemic. Results of the review may inform countries considering implementing these measures

The Impact of Migration on Poland

How has the international mobility of Polish citizens intertwined with other influences to shape society, culture, politics and economics in contemporary Poland? The Impact of Migration on Poland offers a new approach for understanding how migration affects sending countries, and provides a wide-ranging analysis of how Poland has changed, and continues to change, since EU accession in 2004. The authors explore an array of social trends and their causes before using in-depth interview data to illustrate how migration contributes to those causes. They address fundamental questions about whether and how Polish society is becoming more equal and more cosmopolitan, arguing that for particular segments of society migration does make a difference, and can be seen as both leveller and eye-opener. While the book focuses mainly on stayers in Poland, and their multiple contacts with Poles in other countries, Chapter 9 analyses ‘Polish society abroad’, a more accurate concept than ‘community’ in countries like the UK, and Chapter 10 considers impacts of immigration to Poland. The book is written in a lively and accessible style, and will be important reading for anyone interested in the influence of migration on society, as well as students and scholars researching EU mobility, migration theory and methodology, and issues facing contemporary Europe

Employment in Poland 2007: Security on flexible labour market

This Report is a third in the series Employment in Poland. It consists of four Parts, devoted to empirical analysis of the impact of macroeconomic shocks on EU New Member States labour markets‘ in 1996-2006; utilization of flexible forms of employment on Polish labor market, determinants of wages and wage inequalities in Poland; effectiveness of ALMP in Poland, respectively. In Part I, we present how the cyclical upturn propagated on Polish labour market in 2003-2007 and how the performance of that market evolved relatively to other EU countries. Then we apply a panel SVECM to study propagation of macroeconomic shocks in eight CEE countries which joined the EU in 2004. We show that demand side shocks (foreign demand and labour demand shocks) were of foremost importance to unemployment and employment fluctuations in the region. At the same time, we argue that the wage shocks, thought of as wage rigidities, were important internal disturbances affecting the developments on the labour markets in the region. Part II is devoted to atypical forms of labour employment. We show that in all CEE countries the incidence of nonstandard employment arrangements is much lower than in Western Europe. Although Poland stands out in the whole EU with its dynamic spread of temporary employment and integration of temporary work agencies in the functioning of the labour market, in general the potential of atypical employment in Poland and other CEE is largely unfulfilled when it comes to work- life balance or supporting the economic activity of people who find it difficult to work full-time due to age or health reasons. In case of Poland, we study in more detailed way the legal, infrastructural and tax-related factors affecting the utilisation of nonstandard forms of employment. In Part III, we study wage developments in Poland from macro- and micro-perspective alike. We argue that wage growth in Poland exhibited a significant inertia during the transition period. We find that the concurrent rise of wage inequalities in Poland was due to the fact that rapid technological progress favoured some professional and social groups more than others. The increasing return on formal education and rising premiums on work in managerial positions as well as increasingly diverse individual and market characteristics of Polish workers seem to play the key role. The public sector stands out with higher wage compression than private sector. We show also that, in international comparison, the gender wage gap in Poland is relatively small. Notwithstanding the above, even if differences in individual and employer characteristics as well as working time are taken into consideration, women still earn about ten percent less than men. Part IV focuses active labour market policies (ALMP). We assess the ALMP spending and structure in Poland and we use the survey, conducted for the purposes of this Report, to study to effectiveness of ALMP. To our knowledge, it is the first attempt at producing a rigorous and comprehensive evaluation of ALMP effectiveness in Poland in the recent years. Applying Propensity Score Matching, we find that intervention and public works turn out to be completely inefficient when it comes to enhancing employment chances of the unemployed. At the same time, even for those programs that are characterised by positive net efficiency, such as internships and traineeships, the deadweight loss is also high, i.e. support is extended to groups whose situation is relatively good, whereas more difficult cases are neglected. Thus, the placement of ALMP participants in Poland is sub-optimal, which partly reflects very poor job broking and counseling done by PES. We complete the report with policy implications

Employment in Poland 2007: Security on flexible labour market

This Report is a third in the series Employment in Poland. It consists of four Parts, devoted to empirical analysis of the impact of macroeconomic shocks on EU New Member States labour markets‘ in 1996-2006; utilization of flexible forms of employment on Polish labor market, determinants of wages and wage inequalities in Poland; effectiveness of ALMP in Poland, respectively. In Part I, we present how the cyclical upturn propagated on Polish labour market in 2003-2007 and how the performance of that market evolved relatively to other EU countries. Then we apply a panel SVECM to study propagation of macroeconomic shocks in eight CEE countries which joined the EU in 2004. We show that demand side shocks (foreign demand and labour demand shocks) were of foremost importance to unemployment and employment fluctuations in the region. At the same time, we argue that the wage shocks, thought of as wage rigidities, were important internal disturbances affecting the developments on the labour markets in the region. Part II is devoted to atypical forms of labour employment. We show that in all CEE countries the incidence of nonstandard employment arrangements is much lower than in Western Europe. Although Poland stands out in the whole EU with its dynamic spread of temporary employment and integration of temporary work agencies in the functioning of the labour market, in general the potential of atypical employment in Poland and other CEE is largely unfulfilled when it comes to work- life balance or supporting the economic activity of people who find it difficult to work full-time due to age or health reasons. In case of Poland, we study in more detailed way the legal, infrastructural and tax-related factors affecting the utilisation of nonstandard forms of employment. In Part III, we study wage developments in Poland from macro- and micro-perspective alike. We argue that wage growth in Poland exhibited a significant inertia during the transition period. We find that the concurrent rise of wage inequalities in Poland was due to the fact that rapid technological progress favoured some professional and social groups more than others. The increasing return on formal education and rising premiums on work in managerial positions as well as increasingly diverse individual and market characteristics of Polish workers seem to play the key role. The public sector stands out with higher wage compression than private sector. We show also that, in international comparison, the gender wage gap in Poland is relatively small. Notwithstanding the above, even if differences in individual and employer characteristics as well as working time are taken into consideration, women still earn about ten percent less than men. Part IV focuses active labour market policies (ALMP). We assess the ALMP spending and structure in Poland and we use the survey, conducted for the purposes of this Report, to study to effectiveness of ALMP. To our knowledge, it is the first attempt at producing a rigorous and comprehensive evaluation of ALMP effectiveness in Poland in the recent years. Applying Propensity Score Matching, we find that intervention and public works turn out to be completely inefficient when it comes to enhancing employment chances of the unemployed. At the same time, even for those programs that are characterised by positive net efficiency, such as internships and traineeships, the deadweight loss is also high, i.e. support is extended to groups whose situation is relatively good, whereas more difficult cases are neglected. Thus, the placement of ALMP participants in Poland is sub-optimal, which partly reflects very poor job broking and counseling done by PES. We complete the report with policy implications.Poland; unemployment; employment; transition countries; labour market shocks; SVECM; wage rigidities; flexible forms of employment, wage inequalities, wage determinants, active labour market policy, ALMP effectiveness