ターボ機械の最適化と設計知識マイニング

Tohoku University大林 茂課

Optimization for Decision Making II

In the current context of the electronic governance of society, both administrations and citizens are demanding the greater participation of all the actors involved in the decision-making process relative to the governance of society. This book presents collective works published in the recent Special Issue (SI) entitled “Optimization for Decision Making II”. These works give an appropriate response to the new challenges raised, the decision-making process can be done by applying different methods and tools, as well as using different objectives. In real-life problems, the formulation of decision-making problems and the application of optimization techniques to support decisions are particularly complex and a wide range of optimization techniques and methodologies are used to minimize risks, improve quality in making decisions or, in general, to solve problems. In addition, a sensitivity or robustness analysis should be done to validate/analyze the influence of uncertainty regarding decision-making. This book brings together a collection of inter-/multi-disciplinary works applied to the optimization of decision making in a coherent manner

Managing computational complexity through using partitioning, approximation and coordination

Problem: Complex systems are composed of many interdependent subsystems with a level of complexity that exceeds the ability of a single designer. One way to address this problem is to partition the complex design problem into smaller, more manageable design tasks that can be handled by multiple design teams. Partitioning-based design methods are decision support tools that provide mathematical foundations, and computational methods to create such design processes. Managing the interdependency among these subsystems is crucial and a successful design process should meet the requirements of the whole system which needs coordinating the solutions for all the partitions after all. Approach: Partitioning and coordination should be performed to break down the system into subproblems, solve them and put these solutions together to come up with the ultimate system design. These two tasks of partitioning-coordinating are computationally demanding. Most of the proposed approaches are either computationally very expensive or applicable to only a narrow class of problems. These approaches also use exact methods and eliminate the uncertainty. To manage the computational complexity and uncertainty, we approximate each subproblem after partitioning the whole system. In engineering design, one way to approximate the reality is using surrogate models (SM) to replace the functions which are computationally expensive to solve. This task also is added to the proposed computational framework. Also, to automate the whole process, creating a knowledge-based reusable template for each of these three steps is required. Therefore, in this dissertation, we first partition/decompose the complex system, then, we approximate the subproblem of each partition. Afterwards, we apply coordination methods to guide the solutions of the partitions toward the ultimate integrated system design. Validation: The partitioning-approximation-coordination design approach is validated using the validation square approach that consists of theoretical and empirical validation. Empirical validation of the design architecture is carried out using two industry-driven problems namely the a hot rod rolling problem’, ‘a dam network design problem’, ‘a crime prediction problem’ and ‘a green supply chain design problem’. Specific sub-problems are formulated within these problem domains to address various research questions identified in this dissertation. Contributions: The contributions from the dissertation are categorized into new knowledge in five research domains: • Creating an approach to building an ensemble of surrogate models when the data is limited – when the data is limited, replacing computationally expensive simulations with accurate, low-dimensional, and rapid surrogates is very important but non-trivial. Therefore, a cross-validation-based ensemble modeling approach is proposed. • Using temporal and spatial analysis to manage the uncertainties - when the data is time-based (for example, in meteorological data analysis) and when we are dealing with geographical data (for example, in geographical information systems data analysis), instead of feature-based data analysis time series analysis and spatial statistics are required, respectively. Therefore, when the simulations are for time and space-based data, surrogate models need to be time and space-based. In surrogate modeling, there is a gap in time and space-based models which we address in this dissertation. We created, applied and evaluated the effectiveness of these models for a dam network planning and a crime prediction problem. • Removing assumptions regarding the demand distributions in green supply chain networks – in the existent literature for supply chain network design, there are always assumptions about the distribution of the demand. We remove this assumption in the partition-approximate-compose of the green supply chain design problem. • Creating new knowledge by proposing a coordination approach for a partitioned and approximated network design. A green supply chain under online (pull economy) and in-person (push economy) shopping channels is designed to demonstrate the utility of the proposed approach

Advances in Evolutionary Algorithms

With the recent trends towards massive data sets and significant computational power, combined with evolutionary algorithmic advances evolutionary computation is becoming much more relevant to practice. Aim of the book is to present recent improvements, innovative ideas and concepts in a part of a huge EA field

Interactive Decision Analysis; Proceedings of an International Workshop on Interactive Decision Analysis and Interpretative Computer Intelligence, Laxenburg, Austria, September 20-23, 1983

An International Workshop on Interactive Decision Analysis and Interpretative Computer Intelligence was held at IIASA in September 1983. The Workshop was motivated, firstly, by the realization that the rapid development of computers, especially microcomputers, will greatly increase the scope and capabilities of computerized decision-support systems. It is important to explore the potential of these systems for use in handling the complex technological, environmental, economic and social problems that face the world today. Research in decision-support systems also has another, less tangible but possibly more important, motivation. The development of efficient systems for decision support requires a thorough understanding of the differences between the decision-making processes in different nations and cultures. An understanding of the different rationales underlying decision making is not only necessary for the development of efficient decision-support systems, but it is also an important factor in encouraging international understanding and cooperation. The Proceedings of the Workshop which are contained in this volume are divided in four main sections. The first section consists of an introductory lecture in which a unifying approach to the use of computers and computerized mathematical models for decision analysis and support is described. The second section is concerned with approaches and concepts in interactive decision analysis and section three is devoted to methods and techniques for decision analysis. The final section contains descriptions of a wide range of applications of interactive techniques, covering the fields of economics, public policy planning, energy policy evaluation, hydrology and industrial development

An Agent-Based Variogram Modeller: Investigating Intelligent, Distributed-Component Geographical Information Systems

Geo-Information Science (GIScience) is the field of study that addresses substantive questions concerning the handling, analysis and visualisation of spatial data. Geo- Information Systems (GIS), including software, data acquisition and organisational arrangements, are the key technologies underpinning GIScience. A GIS is normally tailored to the service it is supposed to perform. However, there is often the need to do a function that might not be supported by the GIS tool being used. The normal solution in these circumstances is to go out and look for another tool that can do the service, and often an expert to use that tool. This is expensive, time consuming and certainly stressful to the geographical data analyses. On the other hand, GIS is often used in conjunction with other technologies to form a geocomputational environment. One of the complex tools in geocomputation is geostatistics. One of its functions is to provide the means to determine the extent of spatial dependencies within geographical data and processes. Spatial datasets are often large and complex. Currently Agent system are being integrated into GIS to offer flexibility and allow better data analysis. The theis will look into the current application of Agents in within the GIS community, determine if they are used to representing data, process or act a service. The thesis looks into proving the applicability of an agent-oriented paradigm as a service based GIS, having the possibility of providing greater interoperability and reducing resource requirements (human and tools). In particular, analysis was undertaken to determine the need to introduce enhanced features to agents, in order to maximise their effectiveness in GIS. This was achieved by addressing the software agent complexity in design and implementation for the GIS environment and by suggesting possible solutions to encountered problems. The software agent characteristics and features (which include the dynamic binding of plans to software agents in order to tackle the levels of complexity and range of contexts) were examined, as well as discussing current GIScience and the applications of agent technology to GIS, agents as entities, objects and processes. These concepts and their functionalities to GIS are then analysed and discussed. The extent of agent functionality, analysis of the gaps and the use these technologies to express a distributed service providing an agent-based GIS framework is then presented. Thus, a general agent-based framework for GIS and a novel agent-based architecture for a specific part of GIS, the variogram, to examine the applicability of the agent- oriented paradigm to GIS, was devised. An examination of the current mechanisms for constructing variograms, underlying processes and functions was undertaken, then these processes were embedded into a novel agent architecture for GIS. Once the successful software agent implementation had been achieved, the corresponding tool was tested and validated - internally for code errors and externally to determine its functional requirements and whether it enhances the GIS process of dealing with data. Thereafter, its compared with other known service based GIS agents and its advantages and disadvantages analysed

On agent-based modeling: Multidimensional travel behavioral theory, procedural models and simulation-based applications

This dissertation proposes a theoretical framework to modeling multidimensional travel behavior based on artificially intelligent agents, search theory, procedural (dynamic) models, and bounded rationality. For decades, despite the number of heuristic explanations for different results, the fact that "almost no mathematical theory exists which explains the results of the simulations" remains as one of the large drawbacks of agent-based computational process approach. This is partly the side effect of its special feature that "no analytical functions are required". Among the rapidly growing literature devoted to the departure from rational behavior assumptions, this dissertation makes effort to embed a sound theoretical foundation for computational process approach and agent-based microsimulations for transportation system modeling and analyses. The theoretical contribution is three-fold: (1) It theorizes multidimensional knowledge updating, search start/stopping criteria, and search/decision heuristics. These components are formulated or empirically modeled and integrated in a unified and coherent approach. (2) Procedural and dynamic agent-based decision-making is modeled. Within the model, agents make decisions. They also make decisions on how and when to make those decisions. (3) Replace conventional user equilibrium with a dynamic behavioral user equilibrium (BUE). Search start/stop criteria is defined in the way that the modeling process should eventually lead to a steady state that is structurally different to user equilibrium (UE) or dynamic user equilibrium (DUE). The theory is supported by empirical observations and the derived quantitative models are tested by agent-based simulation on a demonstration network. The model in its current form incorporates short-term behavioral dimensions: travel mode, departure time, pre-trip routing, and en-route diversion. Based on research needs and data availability, other dimensions can be added to the framework. The proposed model is successfully integrated with a dynamic traffic simulator (i.e. DTALite, a light-weight dynamic traffic assignment and simulation engine) and then applied to a mid-size study area in White Flint, Maryland. Results obtained from the integration corroborate the behavioral richness, computational efficiency, and convergence property of the proposed theoretical framework. The model is then applied to a number of applications in transportation planning, operations, and optimization, which highlights the capabilities of the proposed theory in estimating rich behavioral dynamics and the potential of large-scale implementation. Future research should experiment the integration with activity-based models, land-use development, energy consumption estimators, etc. to fully develop the potential of the agent-based model

Evolutionary Algorithms in Engineering Design Optimization

Evolutionary algorithms (EAs) are population-based global optimizers, which, due to their characteristics, have allowed us to solve, in a straightforward way, many real world optimization problems in the last three decades, particularly in engineering fields. Their main advantages are the following: they do not require any requisite to the objective/fitness evaluation function (continuity, derivability, convexity, etc.); they are not limited by the appearance of discrete and/or mixed variables or by the requirement of uncertainty quantification in the search. Moreover, they can deal with more than one objective function simultaneously through the use of evolutionary multi-objective optimization algorithms. This set of advantages, and the continuously increased computing capability of modern computers, has enhanced their application in research and industry. From the application point of view, in this Special Issue, all engineering fields are welcomed, such as aerospace and aeronautical, biomedical, civil, chemical and materials science, electronic and telecommunications, energy and electrical, manufacturing, logistics and transportation, mechanical, naval architecture, reliability, robotics, structural, etc. Within the EA field, the integration of innovative and improvement aspects in the algorithms for solving real world engineering design problems, in the abovementioned application fields, are welcomed and encouraged, such as the following: parallel EAs, surrogate modelling, hybridization with other optimization techniques, multi-objective and many-objective optimization, etc