State-Space Inference and Learning with Gaussian Processes

State-space inference and learning with Gaussian processes (GPs) is an unsolved problem. We propose a new, general methodology for inference and learning in nonlinear state-space models that are described probabilistically by non-parametric GP models. We apply the expectation maximization algorithm to iterate between inference in the latent state-space and learning the parameters of the underlying GP dynamics model. Copyright 2010 by the authors

Stochastic MPC Design for a Two-Component Granulation Process

We address the issue of control of a stochastic two-component granulation process in pharmaceutical applications through using Stochastic Model Predictive Control (SMPC) and model reduction to obtain the desired particle distribution. We first use the method of moments to reduce the governing integro-differential equation down to a nonlinear ordinary differential equation (ODE). This reduced-order model is employed in the SMPC formulation. The probabilistic constraints in this formulation keep the variance of particles' drug concentration in an admissible range. To solve the resulting stochastic optimization problem, we first employ polynomial chaos expansion to obtain the Probability Distribution Function (PDF) of the future state variables using the uncertain variables' distributions. As a result, the original stochastic optimization problem for a particulate system is converted to a deterministic dynamic optimization. This approximation lessens the computation burden of the controller and makes its real time application possible.Comment: American control Conference, May, 201

Inverse Problems and Data Assimilation

These notes are designed with the aim of providing a clear and concise introduction to the subjects of Inverse Problems and Data Assimilation, and their inter-relations, together with citations to some relevant literature in this area. The first half of the notes is dedicated to studying the Bayesian framework for inverse problems. Techniques such as importance sampling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are introduced; these methods have the desirable property that in the limit of an infinite number of samples they reproduce the full posterior distribution. Since it is often computationally intensive to implement these methods, especially in high dimensional problems, approximate techniques such as approximating the posterior by a Dirac or a Gaussian distribution are discussed. The second half of the notes cover data assimilation. This refers to a particular class of inverse problems in which the unknown parameter is the initial condition of a dynamical system, and in the stochastic dynamics case the subsequent states of the system, and the data comprises partial and noisy observations of that (possibly stochastic) dynamical system. We will also demonstrate that methods developed in data assimilation may be employed to study generic inverse problems, by introducing an artificial time to generate a sequence of probability measures interpolating from the prior to the posterior