Modelling dynamic decision making with the ACT-R cognitive architecture

This paper describes a model of dynamic decision making in the Dynamic Stocks and Flows (DSF) task, developed using the ACT-R cognitive architecture. This task is a simple simulation of a water tank in which the water level must be kept constant whilst the inflow and outflow changes at varying rates. The basic functions of the model are based around three steps. Firstly, the model predicts the water level in the next cycle by adding the current water level to the predicted net inflow of water. Secondly, based on this projection, the net outflow of the water is adjusted to bring the water level back to the target. Thirdly, the predicted net inflow of water is adjusted to improve its accuracy in the future. If the prediction has overestimated net inflow then it is reduced, if it has underestimated net inflow it is increased. The model was entered into a model comparison competition-the Dynamic Stocks and Flows Challenge-to model human performance on four conditions of the DSF task and then subject the model to testing on five unseen transfer conditions. The model reproduced the main features of the development data reasonably well but did not reproduce human performance well under the transfer conditions. This suggests that the principles underlying human performance across the different conditions differ considerably despite their apparent similarity. Further lessons for the future development of our model and model comparison challenges are considered

The challenge of complexity for cognitive systems

Complex cognition addresses research on (a) high-level cognitive processes – mainly problem solving, reasoning, and decision making – and their interaction with more basic processes such as perception, learning, motivation and emotion and (b) cognitive processes which take place in a complex, typically dynamic, environment. Our focus is on AI systems and cognitive models dealing with complexity and on psychological findings which can inspire or challenge cognitive systems research. In this overview we first motivate why we have to go beyond models for rather simple cognitive processes and reductionist experiments. Afterwards, we give a characterization of complexity from our perspective. We introduce the triad of cognitive science methods – analytical, empirical, and engineering methods – which in our opinion have all to be utilized to tackle complex cognition. Afterwards we highlight three aspects of complex cognition – complex problem solving, dynamic decision making, and learning of concepts, skills and strategies. We conclude with some reflections about and challenges for future research

The challenge of complexity for cognitive systems

Complex cognition addresses research on (a) high-level cognitive processes – mainly problem solving, reasoning, and decision making – and their interaction with more basic processes such as perception, learning, motivation and emotion and (b) cognitive processes which take place in a complex, typically dynamic, environment. Our focus is on AI systems and cognitive models dealing with complexity and on psychological findings which can inspire or challenge cognitive systems research. In this overview we first motivate why we have to go beyond models for rather simple cognitive processes and reductionist experiments. Afterwards, we give a characterization of complexity from our perspective. We introduce the triad of cognitive science methods – analytical, empirical, and engineering methods – which in our opinion have all to be utilized to tackle complex cognition. Afterwards we highlight three aspects of complex cognition – complex problem solving, dynamic decision making, and learning of concepts, skills and strategies. We conclude with some reflections about and challenges for future research

A Cognitive Modeling Approach to Strategy Formation in Dynamic Decision Making

Decision-making is a high-level cognitive process based on cognitive processes like perception, attention, and memory. Real-life situations require series of decisions to be made, with each decision depending on previous feedback from a potentially changing environment. To gain a better understanding of the underlying processes of dynamic decision-making, we applied the method of cognitive modeling on a complex rule-based category learning task. Here, participants first needed to identify the conjunction of two rules that defined a target category and later adapt to a reversal of feedback contingencies. We developed an ACT-R model for the core aspects of this dynamic decision-making task. An important aim of our model was that it provides a general account of how such tasks are solved and, with minor changes, is applicable to other stimulus materials. The model was implemented as a mixture of an exemplar-based and a rule-based approach which incorporates perceptual-motor and metacognitive aspects as well. The model solves the categorization task by first trying out one-feature strategies and then, as a result of repeated negative feedback, switching to two-feature strategies. Overall, this model solves the task in a similar way as participants do, including generally successful initial learning as well as reversal learning after the change of feedback contingencies. Moreover, the fact that not all participants were successful in the two learning phases is also reflected in the modeling data. However, we found a larger variance and a lower overall performance of the modeling data as compared to the human data which may relate to perceptual preferences or additional knowledge and rules applied by the participants. In a next step, these aspects could be implemented in the model for a better overall fit. In view of the large interindividual differences in decision performance between participants, additional information about the underlying cognitive processes from behavioral, psychobiological and neurophysiological data may help to optimize future applications of this model such that it can be transferred to other domains of comparable dynamic decision tasks.DFG, 54371073, SFB/TRR 62: Eine Companion-Technologie für kognitive technische System

Proceedings of the KI 2009 Workshop on Complex Cognition

The KI ´09 workshop on Complex Cognition was a joint venture of the Cognition group of the Special Interest Group Artificial Intelligence of the German Computer Science Society (Gesellschaft für Informatik) and the German Cognitive Science Association. Dealing with complexity has become one of the great challenges for modern information societies. To reason and decide, plan and act in complex domains is no longer limited to highly specialized professionals in restricted areas such as medical diagnosis, controlling technical processes, or serious game playing. Complexity has reached everyday life and affects people in such mundane activities as buying a train ticket, investing money, or connecting a home desktop to the internet. Research in cognitive AI can contribute to supporting people navigating through the jungle of everyday reasoning, decision making, planning and acting by providing intelligent support technology. Lessons learned from expert systems research of the nineteen-eighties show that the aim should not be to provide for fully automated systems which can solve specialized tasks autonomously but instead to develop interactive assistant systems where user and system work together by taking advantage of the respective strengths of human and machine. To accomplish a smooth collaboration between humans and intelligent systems, basic research in cognition is a necessary precondition. Insights into cognitive structures and processes underlying successful human reasoning and planning can provide suggestions for algorithm design. Even more important, insights into restrictions and typical errors and misconceptions of the cognitive systems provide information about those parts of a complex task from which the human should be relieved. For successful human-computer interaction in complex domains it has, furthermore, to be decided which information should be presented when, in what way, to the user. We strongly believe that symbolic approaches of AI and psychological research of higher cognition are at the core of success for the endeavor to create intelligent assistant system for complex domains. While insight into the neurological processes of the brain and into the realization of basic processes of perception, attention and senso-motoric coordination are important for the basic understanding of the principles of human intelligence, these processes have a much too fine granularity for the design and realization of interactive systems which must communicate with the user on knowledge level. If human system users are not to be incapacitated by a system, system decisions must be transparent for the user and the system must be able to provide explanations for the reasons of its proposals and recommendations. Therefore, even when some of the underlying algorithms are based on statistical or neuronal approaches, the top-level of such systems must be symbolical and rule-based. The papers presented at this workshop on complex cognition give an inspiring and promising overview of current work in the field which can provide first building stones for our endeavor to create knowledge level intelligent assistant systems for complex domains. The topics cover modelling basic cognitive processes, interfacing subsymbolic and symbolic representations, dealing with continuous time, Bayesian identification of problem solving strategies, linguistically inspired methods for assessing complex cognitive processes and complex domains such as recognition of sketches, predicting changes in stocks, spatial information processing, and coping with critical situations

AI alignment and generalization in deep learning

This thesis covers a number of works in deep learning aimed at understanding and improving generalization abilities of deep neural networks (DNNs). DNNs achieve unrivaled performance in a growing range of tasks and domains, yet their behavior during learning and deployment remains poorly understood. They can also be surprisingly brittle: in-distribution generalization can be a poor predictor of behavior or performance under distributional shifts, which typically cannot be avoided in practice. While these limitations are not unique to DNNs -- and indeed are likely to be challenges facing any AI systems of sufficient complexity -- the prevalence and power of DNNs makes them particularly worthy of study. I frame these challenges within the broader context of "AI Alignment": a nascent field focused on ensuring that AI systems behave in accordance with their user's intentions. While making AI systems more intelligent or capable can help make them more aligned, it is neither necessary nor sufficient for alignment. However, being able to align state-of-the-art AI systems (e.g. DNNs) is of great social importance in order to avoid undesirable and unsafe behavior from advanced AI systems. Without progress in AI Alignment, advanced AI systems might pursue objectives at odds with human survival, posing an existential risk (``x-risk'') to humanity. A core tenet of this thesis is that the achieving high performance on machine learning benchmarks if often a good indicator of AI systems' capabilities, but not their alignment. This is because AI systems often achieve high performance in unexpected ways that reveal the limitations of our performance metrics, and more generally, our techniques for specifying our intentions. Learning about human intentions using DNNs shows some promise, but DNNs are still prone to learning to solve tasks using concepts of "features" very different from those which are salient to humans. Indeed, this is a major source of their poor generalization on out-of-distribution data. By better understanding the successes and failures of DNN generalization and current methods of specifying our intentions, we aim to make progress towards deep-learning based AI systems that are able to understand users' intentions and act accordingly.Cette thèse discute quelques travaux en apprentissage profond visant à comprendre et à améliorer les capacités de généralisation des réseaux de neurones profonds (DNN). Les DNNs atteignent des performances inégalées dans un éventail croissant de tâches et de domaines, mais leur comportement pendant l'apprentissage et le déploiement reste mal compris. Ils peuvent également être étonnamment fragiles: la généralisation dans la distribution peut être un mauvais prédicteur du comportement ou de la performance lors de changements de distribution, ce qui ne peut généralement pas être évité dans la pratique. Bien que ces limitations ne soient pas propres aux DNN - et sont en effet susceptibles de constituer des défis pour tout système d'IA suffisamment complexe - la prévalence et la puissance des DNN les rendent particulièrement dignes d'étude. J'encadre ces défis dans le contexte plus large de «l'alignement de l'IA»: un domaine naissant axé sur la garantie que les systèmes d'IA se comportent conformément aux intentions de leurs utilisateurs. Bien que rendre les systèmes d'IA plus intelligents ou capables puisse aider à les rendre plus alignés, cela n'est ni nécessaire ni suffisant pour l'alignement. Cependant, être capable d'aligner les systèmes d'IA de pointe (par exemple les DNN) est d'une grande importance sociale afin d'éviter les comportements indésirables et dangereux des systèmes d'IA avancés. Sans progrès dans l'alignement de l'IA, les systèmes d'IA avancés pourraient poursuivre des objectifs contraires à la survie humaine, posant un risque existentiel («x-risque») pour l'humanité. L'un des principes fondamentaux de cette thèse est que l'obtention de hautes performances sur les repères d'apprentissage automatique est souvent un bon indicateur des capacités des systèmes d'IA, mais pas de leur alignement. En effet, les systèmes d'IA atteignent souvent des performances élevées de manière inattendue, ce qui révèle les limites de nos mesures de performance et, plus généralement, de nos techniques pour spécifier nos intentions. L'apprentissage des intentions humaines à l'aide des DNN est quelque peu prometteur, mais les DNN sont toujours enclins à apprendre à résoudre des tâches en utilisant des concepts de «caractéristiques» très différents de ceux qui sont saillants pour les humains. En effet, c'est une source majeure de leur mauvaise généralisation sur les données hors distribution. En comprenant mieux les succès et les échecs de la généralisation DNN et les méthodes actuelles de spécification de nos intentions, nous visons à progresser vers des systèmes d'IA basés sur l'apprentissage en profondeur qui sont capables de comprendre les intentions des utilisateurs et d'agir en conséquence

Forests, carbon cycle and climate change

The results presented in this book summarize the main findings of the CARBOFOR project, which brought together 52 scientists from 14 research units to investigate the effects of future climate on the carbon cycle, the productivity and vulnerability of French forests. This book explains the current forest carbon cycle in temperate and Mediterranean climates, including the dynamics of soil carbon and the total carbon stock of French forests, based on forest inventories. It reviews and illustrates the main ground-based methods for estimating carbon stocks in tree biomass. Spatial variations in projected climate change over metropolitan France throughout the 21st century are described. The book then goes on to consider the impacts of climate change on tree phenology and forest carbon balance, evapotranspiration and production as well as their first order interaction with forest management alternatives. The impact of climate change on forest vulnerability is analysed. A similar simulation study was carried out for a range of pathogenic fungi, emphasizing the importance of both warming and precipitation changes. The consequences of climate change on the occurrence of forest fires and the forest carbon cycle in the Mediterranean zone are also considered.A valuable reference for researchers and academics, forest engineers and managers, and graduate level students in forest ecology, ecological modelling and forestry

Understanding Dynamic Systems and Non-linearity

This empirical dissertation deals with how, and how well, people understand dynamic systems and non-linear processes