An Integrated Multi-Time-Scale Modeling for Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using Deep Learning

For short-term solar irradiance forecasting, the traditional point forecasting methods are rendered less useful due to the non-stationary characteristic of solar power. The amount of operating reserves required to maintain reliable operation of the electric grid rises due to the variability of solar energy. The higher the uncertainty in the generation, the greater the operating-reserve requirements, which translates to an increased cost of operation. In this research work, we propose a unified architecture for multi-time-scale predictions for intra-day solar irradiance forecasting using recurrent neural networks (RNN) and long-short-term memory networks (LSTMs). This paper also lays out a framework for extending this modeling approach to intra-hour forecasting horizons thus, making it a multi-time-horizon forecasting approach, capable of predicting intra-hour as well as intra-day solar irradiance. We develop an end-to-end pipeline to effectuate the proposed architecture. The performance of the prediction model is tested and validated by the methodical implementation. The robustness of the approach is demonstrated with case studies conducted for geographically scattered sites across the United States. The predictions demonstrate that our proposed unified architecture-based approach is effective for multi-time-scale solar forecasts and achieves a lower root-mean-square prediction error when benchmarked against the best-performing methods documented in the literature that use separate models for each time-scale during the day. Our proposed method results in a 71.5% reduction in the mean RMSE averaged across all the test sites compared to the ML-based best-performing method reported in the literature. Additionally, the proposed method enables multi-time-horizon forecasts with real-time inputs, which have a significant potential for practical industry applications in the evolving grid.Comment: 19 pages, 12 figures, 3 tables, under review for journal submissio

Thirty Years of Machine Learning: The Road to Pareto-Optimal Wireless Networks

Future wireless networks have a substantial potential in terms of supporting a broad range of complex compelling applications both in military and civilian fields, where the users are able to enjoy high-rate, low-latency, low-cost and reliable information services. Achieving this ambitious goal requires new radio techniques for adaptive learning and intelligent decision making because of the complex heterogeneous nature of the network structures and wireless services. Machine learning (ML) algorithms have great success in supporting big data analytics, efficient parameter estimation and interactive decision making. Hence, in this article, we review the thirty-year history of ML by elaborating on supervised learning, unsupervised learning, reinforcement learning and deep learning. Furthermore, we investigate their employment in the compelling applications of wireless networks, including heterogeneous networks (HetNets), cognitive radios (CR), Internet of things (IoT), machine to machine networks (M2M), and so on. This article aims for assisting the readers in clarifying the motivation and methodology of the various ML algorithms, so as to invoke them for hitherto unexplored services as well as scenarios of future wireless networks.Comment: 46 pages, 22 fig

Improved success rate and stability for phase retrieval by including randomized overrelaxation in the hybrid input output algorithm

In this paper, we study the success rate of the reconstruction of objects of finite extent given the magnitude of its Fourier transform and its geometrical shape. We demonstrate that the commonly used combination of the hybrid input output and error reduction algorithm is significantly outperformed by an extension of this algorithm based on randomized overrelaxation. In most cases, this extension tremendously enhances the success rate of reconstructions for a fixed number of iterations as compared to reconstructions solely based on the traditional algorithm. The good scaling properties in terms of computational time and memory requirements of the original algorithm are not influenced by this extension.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figure

A multi-scale multi-frequency deconvolution algorithm for synthesis imaging in radio interferometry

Aims : We describe MS-MFS, a multi-scale multi-frequency deconvolution algorithm for wide-band synthesis-imaging, and present imaging results that illustrate the capabilities of the algorithm and the conditions under which it is feasible and gives accurate results. Methods : The MS-MFS algorithm models the wide-band sky-brightness distribution as a linear combination of spatial and spectral basis functions, and performs image-reconstruction by combining a linear-least-squares approach with iterative $\chi^2$ minimization. This method extends and combines the ideas used in the MS-CLEAN and MF-CLEAN algorithms for multi-scale and multi-frequency deconvolution respectively, and can be used in conjunction with existing wide-field imaging algorithms. We also discuss a simpler hybrid of spectral-line and continuum imaging methods and point out situations where it may suffice. Results : We show via simulations and application to multi-frequency VLA data and wideband EVLA data, that it is possible to reconstruct both spatial and spectral structure of compact and extended emission at the continuum sensitivity level and at the angular resolution allowed by the highest sampled frequency.Comment: 17 pages, 11 figure