7 research outputs found
Exploring the impact of social stress on the adaptive dynamics of COVID-19: Typing the behavior of na\"ive populations faced with epidemics
In the context of natural disasters, human responses inevitably intertwine
with natural factors. The COVID-19 pandemic, as a significant stress factor,
has brought to light profound variations among different countries in terms of
their adaptive dynamics in addressing the spread of infection outbreaks across
different regions. This emphasizes the crucial role of cultural characteristics
in natural disaster analysis. The theoretical understanding of large-scale
epidemics primarily relies on mean-field kinetic models. However, conventional
SIR-like models failed to fully explain the observed phenomena at the onset of
the COVID-19 outbreak. These phenomena included the unexpected cessation of
exponential growth, the reaching of plateaus, and the occurrence of multi-wave
dynamics. In situations where an outbreak of a highly virulent and unfamiliar
infection arises, it becomes crucial to respond swiftly at a non-medical level
to mitigate the negative socio-economic impact. Here we present a theoretical
examination of the first wave of the epidemic based on a simple SIRSS model
(SIR with Social Stress). We conduct an analysis of the socio-cultural features
of na\"ive population behaviors across various countries worldwide. The unique
characteristics of each country/territory are encapsulated in only a few
constants within our model, derived from the fitted COVID-19 statistics. These
constants also reflect the societal response dynamics to the external stress
factor, underscoring the importance of studying the mutual behavior of humanity
and natural factors during global social disasters. Based on these distinctive
characteristics of specific regions, local authorities can optimize their
strategies to effectively combat epidemics until vaccines are developed.Comment: 29 pages, 16 figures, 1 table, 2 appendice
ΠΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΡΠ°ΡΠΏΡΠΎΡΡΡΠ°Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠΏΠΈΠ΄Π΅ΠΌΠΈΠΉ Ρ ΠΈΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ΠΌ ΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅ΠΉ
Π ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄ΡΡΠ°Π²Π»Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΡΠ°Π±ΠΎΡΠ΅ ΡΠ°Π·ΡΠ°Π±ΠΎΡΠ°Π½Π° ΠΈ ΡΠ΅Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π° ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Ρ, ΠΏΠΎΠ·Π²ΠΎΠ»ΡΡΡΠ°Ρ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°ΡΡ Π΄ΠΈΠ½Π°ΠΌΠΈΠΊΡ ΡΠ°ΡΠΏΡΠΎΡΡΡΠ°Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ Π½ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠΉ ΠΊΠΎΡΠΎΠ½Π°Π²ΠΈΡΡΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΈΠΈ Ρ ΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π²ΡΡ
Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ
. ΠΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Ρ ΡΠ΅Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π° Π² Π²ΠΈΠ΄Π΅ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³ΡΠ°ΠΌΠΌΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ΄ΡΠΊΡΠ°, ΠΊΠΎΡΠΎΡΡΠΉ ΡΠΏΠΎΡΠΎΠ±Π΅Π½ ΡΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°ΡΡ ΡΠΏΠΈΠ΄Π΅ΠΌΠΈΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΡΡ ΠΎΠ±ΡΡΠ°Π½ΠΎΠ²ΠΊΡ Π² ΠΎΡΠ΄Π΅Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΌ Π³ΠΎΡΠΎΠ΄Π΅, ΠΈΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ·ΡΡ ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠ΅ Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΡΠ΅ ΠΏΠΎ Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΠΎΠΌΡ Π½Π°ΡΠ΅Π»Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠΌΡ ΠΏΡΠ½ΠΊΡΡ.In the presented work, a model has been developed and implemented that allows predicting the dynamics of the spread of a new coronavirus infection using network data. The model is implemented as a software product that is able to predict the epidemiological situation in a particular city using static data for a given locality