Theory and Applications of Robust Optimization

In this paper we survey the primary research, both theoretical and applied, in the area of Robust Optimization (RO). Our focus is on the computational attractiveness of RO approaches, as well as the modeling power and broad applicability of the methodology. In addition to surveying prominent theoretical results of RO, we also present some recent results linking RO to adaptable models for multi-stage decision-making problems. Finally, we highlight applications of RO across a wide spectrum of domains, including finance, statistics, learning, and various areas of engineering.Comment: 50 page

Optimization of Gaussian Random Fields

Many engineering systems are subject to spatially distributed uncertainty, i.e. uncertainty that can be modeled as a random field. Altering the mean or covariance of this uncertainty will in general change the statistical distribution of the system outputs. We present an approach for computing the sensitivity of the statistics of system outputs with respect to the parameters describing the mean and covariance of the distributed uncertainty. This sensitivity information is then incorporated into a gradient-based optimizer to optimize the structure of the distributed uncertainty to achieve desired output statistics. This framework is applied to perform variance optimization for a model problem and to optimize the manufacturing tolerances of a gas turbine compressor blade

New results about multi-band uncertainty in Robust Optimization

"The Price of Robustness" by Bertsimas and Sim represented a breakthrough in the development of a tractable robust counterpart of Linear Programming Problems. However, the central modeling assumption that the deviation band of each uncertain parameter is single may be too limitative in practice: experience indeed suggests that the deviations distribute also internally to the single band, so that getting a higher resolution by partitioning the band into multiple sub-bands seems advisable. The critical aim of our work is to close the knowledge gap about the adoption of a multi-band uncertainty set in Robust Optimization: a general definition and intensive theoretical study of a multi-band model are actually still missing. Our new developments have been also strongly inspired and encouraged by our industrial partners, which have been interested in getting a better modeling of arbitrary distributions, built on historical data of the uncertainty affecting the considered real-world problems. In this paper, we study the robust counterpart of a Linear Programming Problem with uncertain coefficient matrix, when a multi-band uncertainty set is considered. We first show that the robust counterpart corresponds to a compact LP formulation. Then we investigate the problem of separating cuts imposing robustness and we show that the separation can be efficiently operated by solving a min-cost flow problem. Finally, we test the performance of our new approach to Robust Optimization on realistic instances of a Wireless Network Design Problem subject to uncertainty.Comment: 15 pages. The present paper is a revised version of the one appeared in the Proceedings of SEA 201

Modeling of Phenomena and Dynamic Logic of Phenomena

Modeling of complex phenomena such as the mind presents tremendous computational complexity challenges. Modeling field theory (MFT) addresses these challenges in a non-traditional way. The main idea behind MFT is to match levels of uncertainty of the model (also, problem or theory) with levels of uncertainty of the evaluation criterion used to identify that model. When a model becomes more certain, then the evaluation criterion is adjusted dynamically to match that change to the model. This process is called the Dynamic Logic of Phenomena (DLP) for model construction and it mimics processes of the mind and natural evolution. This paper provides a formal description of DLP by specifying its syntax, semantics, and reasoning system. We also outline links between DLP and other logical approaches. Computational complexity issues that motivate this work are presented using an example of polynomial models

A surrogate accelerated multicanonical Monte Carlo method for uncertainty quantification

In this work we consider a class of uncertainty quantification problems where the system performance or reliability is characterized by a scalar parameter $y$. The performance parameter $y$ is random due to the presence of various sources of uncertainty in the system, and our goal is to estimate the probability density function (PDF) of $y$. We propose to use the multicanonical Monte Carlo (MMC) method, a special type of adaptive importance sampling algorithm, to compute the PDF of interest. Moreover, we develop an adaptive algorithm to construct local Gaussian process surrogates to further accelerate the MMC iterations. With numerical examples we demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve several orders of magnitudes of speedup over the standard Monte Carlo method