Parcel loss prediction in last-mile delivery: deep and non-deep approaches with insights from Explainable AI

Within the domain of e-commerce retail, an important objective is the reduction of parcel loss during the last-mile delivery phase. The ever-increasing availability of data, including product, customer, and order information, has made it possible for the application of machine learning in parcel loss prediction. However, a significant challenge arises from the inherent imbalance in the data, i.e., only a very low percentage of parcels are lost. In this paper, we propose two machine learning approaches, namely, Data Balance with Supervised Learning (DBSL) and Deep Hybrid Ensemble Learning (DHEL), to accurately predict parcel loss. The practical implication of such predictions is their value in aiding e-commerce retailers in optimizing insurance-related decision-making policies. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the proposed machine learning models using one year data from Belgian shipments. The findings show that the DHEL model, which combines a feed-forward autoencoder with a random forest, achieves the highest classification performance. Furthermore, we use the techniques from Explainable AI (XAI) to illustrate how prediction models can be used in enhancing business processes and augmenting the overall value proposition for e-commerce retailers in the last mile delivery

Recent Advances in Anomaly Detection Methods Applied to Aviation

International audienceAnomaly detection is an active area of research with numerous methods and applications. This survey reviews the state-of-the-art of data-driven anomaly detection techniques and their application to the aviation domain. After a brief introduction to the main traditional data-driven methods for anomaly detection, we review the recent advances in the area of neural networks, deep learning and temporal-logic based learning. In particular, we cover unsupervised techniques applicable to time series data because of their relevance to the aviation domain, where the lack of labeled data is the most usual case, and the nature of flight trajectories and sensor data is sequential, or temporal. The advantages and disadvantages of each method are presented in terms of computational efficiency and detection efficacy. The second part of the survey explores the application of anomaly detection techniques to aviation and their contributions to the improvement of the safety and performance of flight operations and aviation systems. As far as we know, some of the presented methods have not yet found an application in the aviation domain. We review applications ranging from the identification of significant operational events in air traffic operations to the prediction of potential aviation system failures for predictive maintenance

UNSUPERVISED PROBABILISTIC ANOMALY DETECTION OVER NOMINAL SUBSYSTEM EVENTS THROUGH A HIERARCHICAL VARIATIONAL AUTOENCODER

This work develops a versatile approach to discover anomalies in operational data for nominal (i.e., non-parametric) subsystem event signals using unsupervised Deep Learning techniques. Firstly, it builds a neural convolutional framework to extract both intrasubsystem and intersubsystem patterns. This is done by applying banks of voxel filters on the charted data. Secondly, it generalizes the learned embedded regularity of a Variational Autoencoder manifold by merging latent space-overlapping deviations with non-overlapping synthetic irregularities. Contingencies like novel data, model drift, etc., are therefore seamlessly managed by the proposed data-augmented approach. Finally, it creates a smooth diagnosis probabilistic function on the ensuing low-dimensional distributed representation. The resulting enhanced solution warrants analytically strong tools for a critical industrial environment. It also facilitates its hierarchical integrability, and provides visually interpretable insights of the degraded condition hazard to increase the confidence in its predictions. This strategy has been validated with eight pairwise-interrelated subsystems from high-speed trains. Its outcome also leads to further reliable explainability from a causal perspective

Spatiotemporal anomaly detection: streaming architecture and algorithms

Includes bibliographical references.2020 Summer.Anomaly detection is the science of identifying one or more rare or unexplainable samples or events in a dataset or data stream. The field of anomaly detection has been extensively studied by mathematicians, statisticians, economists, engineers, and computer scientists. One open research question remains the design of distributed cloud-based architectures and algorithms that can accurately identify anomalies in previously unseen, unlabeled streaming, multivariate spatiotemporal data. With streaming data, time is of the essence, and insights are perishable. Real-world streaming spatiotemporal data originate from many sources, including mobile phones, supervisory control and data acquisition enabled (SCADA) devices, the internet-of-things (IoT), distributed sensor networks, and social media. Baseline experiments are performed on four (4) non-streaming, static anomaly detection multivariate datasets using unsupervised offline traditional machine learning (TML), and unsupervised neural network techniques. Multiple architectures, including autoencoders, generative adversarial networks, convolutional networks, and recurrent networks, are adapted for experimentation. Extensive experimentation demonstrates that neural networks produce superior detection accuracy over TML techniques. These same neural network architectures can be extended to process unlabeled spatiotemporal streaming using online learning. Space and time relationships are further exploited to provide additional insights and increased anomaly detection accuracy. A novel domain-independent architecture and set of algorithms called the Spatiotemporal Anomaly Detection Environment (STADE) is formulated. STADE is based on federated learning architecture. STADE streaming algorithms are based on a geographically unique, persistently executing neural networks using online stochastic gradient descent (SGD). STADE is designed to be pluggable, meaning that alternative algorithms may be substituted or combined to form an ensemble. STADE incorporates a Stream Anomaly Detector (SAD) and a Federated Anomaly Detector (FAD). The SAD executes at multiple locations on streaming data, while the FAD executes at a single server and identifies global patterns and relationships among the site anomalies. Each STADE site streams anomaly scores to the centralized FAD server for further spatiotemporal dependency analysis and logging. The FAD is based on recent advances in DNN-based federated learning. A STADE testbed is implemented to facilitate globally distributed experimentation using low-cost, commercial cloud infrastructure provided by Microsoft™. STADE testbed sites are situated in the cloud within each continent: Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe, North America, and South America. Communication occurs over the commercial internet. Three STADE case studies are investigated. The first case study processes commercial air traffic flows, the second case study processes global earthquake measurements, and the third case study processes social media (i.e., Twitter™) feeds. These case studies confirm that STADE is a viable architecture for the near real-time identification of anomalies in streaming data originating from (possibly) computationally disadvantaged, geographically dispersed sites. Moreover, the addition of the FAD provides enhanced anomaly detection capability. Since STADE is domain-independent, these findings can be easily extended to additional application domains and use cases

End-to-end anomaly detection in stream data

Nowadays, huge volumes of data are generated with increasing velocity through various systems, applications, and activities. This increases the demand for stream and time series analysis to react to changing conditions in real-time for enhanced efficiency and quality of service delivery as well as upgraded safety and security in private and public sectors. Despite its very rich history, time series anomaly detection is still one of the vital topics in machine learning research and is receiving increasing attention. Identifying hidden patterns and selecting an appropriate model that fits the observed data well and also carries over to unobserved data is not a trivial task. Due to the increasing diversity of data sources and associated stochastic processes, this pivotal data analysis topic is loaded with various challenges like complex latent patterns, concept drift, and overfitting that may mislead the model and cause a high false alarm rate. Handling these challenges leads the advanced anomaly detection methods to develop sophisticated decision logic, which turns them into mysterious and inexplicable black-boxes. Contrary to this trend, end-users expect transparency and verifiability to trust a model and the outcomes it produces. Also, pointing the users to the most anomalous/malicious areas of time series and causal features could save them time, energy, and money. For the mentioned reasons, this thesis is addressing the crucial challenges in an end-to-end pipeline of stream-based anomaly detection through the three essential phases of behavior prediction, inference, and interpretation. The first step is focused on devising a time series model that leads to high average accuracy as well as small error deviation. On this basis, we propose higher-quality anomaly detection and scoring techniques that utilize the related contexts to reclassify the observations and post-pruning the unjustified events. Last but not least, we make the predictive process transparent and verifiable by providing meaningful reasoning behind its generated results based on the understandable concepts by a human. The provided insight can pinpoint the anomalous regions of time series and explain why the current status of a system has been flagged as anomalous. Stream-based anomaly detection research is a principal area of innovation to support our economy, security, and even the safety and health of societies worldwide. We believe our proposed analysis techniques can contribute to building a situational awareness platform and open new perspectives in a variety of domains like cybersecurity, and health

Advancements in Safe Deep Reinforcement Learning for Real-Time Strategy Games and Industry Applications

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Explainable Predictive Maintenance

Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) fills the role of a critical interface fostering interactions between sophisticated intelligent systems and diverse individuals, including data scientists, domain experts, end-users, and more. It aids in deciphering the intricate internal mechanisms of ``black box'' Machine Learning (ML), rendering the reasons behind their decisions more understandable. However, current research in XAI primarily focuses on two aspects; ways to facilitate user trust, or to debug and refine the ML model. The majority of it falls short of recognising the diverse types of explanations needed in broader contexts, as different users and varied application areas necessitate solutions tailored to their specific needs. One such domain is Predictive Maintenance (PdM), an exploding area of research under the Industry 4.0 \& 5.0 umbrella. This position paper highlights the gap between existing XAI methodologies and the specific requirements for explanations within industrial applications, particularly the Predictive Maintenance field. Despite explainability's crucial role, this subject remains a relatively under-explored area, making this paper a pioneering attempt to bring relevant challenges to the research community's attention. We provide an overview of predictive maintenance tasks and accentuate the need and varying purposes for corresponding explanations. We then list and describe XAI techniques commonly employed in the literature, discussing their suitability for PdM tasks. Finally, to make the ideas and claims more concrete, we demonstrate XAI applied in four specific industrial use cases: commercial vehicles, metro trains, steel plants, and wind farms, spotlighting areas requiring further research.Comment: 51 pages, 9 figure