Advanced Methods of Power Load Forecasting

This reprint introduces advanced prediction models focused on power load forecasting. Models based on artificial intelligence and more traditional approaches are shown, demonstrating the real possibilities of use to improve prediction in this field. Models of LSTM neural networks, LSTM networks with a SESDA architecture, in even LSTM-CNN are used. On the other hand, multiple seasonal Holt-Winters models with discrete seasonality and the application of the Prophet method to demand forecasting are presented. These models are applied in different circumstances and show highly positive results. This reprint is intended for both researchers related to energy management and those related to forecasting, especially power load

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases

Aspects of room acoustics, vision and motion in the human auditory perception of space

The human sense of hearing contributes to the awareness of where sound-generating objects are located in space and of the environment in which the hearing individual is located. This auditory perception of space interacts in complex ways with our other senses, can be both disrupted and enhanced by sound reflections, and includes safety mechanisms which have evolved to protect our lives, but can also mislead us. This dissertation explores some selected topics from this wide subject area, mostly by testing the abilities and subjective judgments of human listeners in virtual environments. Reverberation is the gradually decaying persistence of sounds in an enclosed space which results from repeated sound reflections at surfaces. The first experiment (Chapter 2) compared how strongly people perceived reverberation in different visual situations: when they could see the room and the source which generated the sound; when they could see some room and some sound source, but the image did not match what they heard; and when they could not see anything at all. There were no indications that the visual image had any influence on this aspect of room-acoustical perception. The potential benefits of motion for judging the distance of sound sources were the focus of the second study (Chapter 3), which consists of two parts. In the first part, loudspeakers were placed at different depths in front of sitting listeners who, on command, had to either remain still or move their upper bodies sideways. This experiment demonstrated that humans can exploit motion parallax (the effect that closer objects appear faster to a moving observer than farther objects) with their ears and not just with their eyes. The second part combined a virtualisation of such sound sources with a motion platform to show that the listeners’ interpretation of this auditory motion parallax was better when they performed this lateral movement by themselves, rather than when they were moved by the apparatus or were not actually in motion at all. Two more experiments were concerned with the perception of sounds which are perceived as becoming louder over time. These have been called “looming”, as the source of such a sound might be on a collision course. One of the studies (Chapter 4) showed that western diamondback rattlesnakes (Crotalus atrox) increase the vibration speed of their rattle in response to the approach of a threatening object. It also demonstrated that human listeners perceive (virtual) snakes which engage in this behaviour as especially close, causing them to keep a greater margin of safety than they would otherwise. The other study (section 5.6) was concerned with the well-known looming bias of the sound localisation system, a phenomenon which leads to a sometimes exaggerated, sometimes more accurate perception of approaching compared to receding sounds. It attempted to find out whether this bias is affected by whether listeners hear such sounds in a virtual enclosed space or in an environment with no sound reflections. While the results were inconclusive, this experiment is noteworthy as a proof of concept: It was the first study to make use of a new real-time room-acoustical simulation system, liveRAZR, which was developed as part of this dissertation (Chapter 5). Finally, while humans have been more often studied for their unique abilities to communicate with each other and bats for their extraordinary capacity to locate objects by sound, this dissertation turns this setting of priorities on its head with the last paper (Chapter 6): Based on recordings of six pale spear-nosed bats (Phyllostomus discolor), it is a survey of the identifiably distinct vocalisations observed in their social interactions, along with a description of the different situations in which they typically occur.Das menschliche Gehör trägt zum Bewusstsein dafür bei, wo sich schallerzeugende Objekte im Raum befinden und wie die Umgebung beschaffen ist, in der sich eine Person aufhält. Diese auditorische Raumwahrnehmung interagiert auf komplexe Art und Weise mit unseren anderen Sinnen, kann von Schallreflektionen sowohl profitieren als auch durch sie behindert werden, und besitzt Mechanismen welche evolutionär entstanden sind, um unser Leben zu schützen, uns aber auch irreführen können. Diese Dissertation befasst sich mit einigen ausgewählten Themen aus diesem weiten Feld und stützt sich dabei meist auf die Testung von Wahrnehmungsfähigkeiten und subjektiver Einschätzungen menschlicher Hörer/-innen in virtueller Realität. Beim ersten Experiment (Kapitel 2) handelte es sich um einen Vergleich zwischen der Wahrnehmung von Nachhall, dem durch wiederholte Reflexionen an Oberflächen hervorgerufenen, sukzessiv abschwellenden Verbleib von Schall in einem umschlossenen Raum, unter verschiedenen visuellen Umständen: wenn die Versuchsperson den Raum und die Schallquelle sehen konnte; wenn sie irgendeinen Raum und irgendeine Schallquelle sehen konnte, dieses Bild aber vom Schalleindruck abwich; und wenn sie gar kein Bild sehen konnte. Dieser Versuch konnte keinen Einfluss eines Seheindrucks auf diesen Aspekt der raumakustischen Wahrnehmung zu Tage fördern. Mögliche Vorteile von Bewegung für die Einschätzung der Entfernung von Schallquellen waren der Schwerpunkt der zweiten Studie (Kapitel 3). Diese bestand aus zwei Teilen, wovon der erste zeigte, dass Hörer/-innen, die ihren Oberkörper relativ zu zwei in unterschiedlichen Abständen vor ihnen aufgestellten Lautsprechern auf Kommando entweder stillhalten oder seitlich bewegen mussten, im letzteren Falle von der Bewegungsparallaxe (dem Effekt, dass sich der nähere Lautsprecher relativ zum sich bewegenden Körper schneller bewegte als der weiter entfernte) profitieren konnten. Der zweite Teil kombinierte eine Simulation solcher Schallquellen mit einer Bewegungsplattform, wodurch gezeigt werden konnte, dass die bewusste Eigenbewegung für die Versuchspersonen hilfreicher war, als durch die Plattform bewegt zu werden oder gar nicht wirklich in Bewegung zu sein. Zwei weitere Versuche gingen auf die Wahrnehmung von Schallen ein, deren Ursprungsort sich nach und nach näher an den/die Hörer/-in heranbewegte. Derartige Schalle werden auch als „looming“ („anbahnend“) bezeichnet, da eine solche Annäherung bei bedrohlichen Signalen nichts Gutes ahnen lässt. Einer dieser Versuche (Kapitel 4) zeigte zunächst, dass Texas-Klapperschlangen (Crotalus atrox) die Vibrationsgeschwindigkeit der Schwanzrassel steigern, wenn sich ein bedrohliches Objekt ihnen nähert. Menschliche Hörer/-innen nahmen (virtuelle) Schlangen, die dieses Verhalten aufweisen, als besonders nahe wahr und hielten einen größeren Sicherheitsabstand ein, als sie es sonst tun würden. Der andere Versuch (Abschnitt 5.6) versuchte festzustellen, ob die wohlbekannte Neigung unserer Schallwahrnehmung, näherkommende Schalle manchmal übertrieben und manchmal genauer einzuschätzen als sich entfernende, durch Schallreflektionen beeinflusst werden kann. Diese Ergebnisse waren unschlüssig, jedoch bestand die Besonderheit dieses Versuchs darin, dass er erstmals ein neues Echtzeitsystem zur Raumakustiksimulation (liveRAZR) nutzte, welches als Teil dieser Dissertation entwickelt wurde (Kapitel 5). Abschließend (Kapitel 6) wird die Schwerpunktsetzung auf den Kopf gestellt, nach der Menschen öfter auf ihre einmaligen Fähigkeiten zur Kommunikation miteinander untersucht werden und Fledermäuse öfter auf ihre außergewöhnliches Geschick, Objekte durch Schall zu orten: Anhand von Aufnahmen von sechs Kleinen Lanzennasen (Phyllostomus discolor) fasst das Kapitel die klar voneinander unterscheidbaren Laute zusammen, die diese Tiere im sozialen Umgang miteinander produzieren, und beschreibt, in welchen Situationen diese Lauttypen typischerweise auftreten

Entropy in Dynamic Systems

In order to measure and quantify the complex behavior of real-world systems, either novel mathematical approaches or modifications of classical ones are required to precisely predict, monitor, and control complicated chaotic and stochastic processes. Though the term of entropy comes from Greek and emphasizes its analogy to energy, today, it has wandered to different branches of pure and applied sciences and is understood in a rather rough way, with emphasis placed on the transition from regular to chaotic states, stochastic and deterministic disorder, and uniform and non-uniform distribution or decay of diversity. This collection of papers addresses the notion of entropy in a very broad sense. The presented manuscripts follow from different branches of mathematical/physical sciences, natural/social sciences, and engineering-oriented sciences with emphasis placed on the complexity of dynamical systems. Topics like timing chaos and spatiotemporal chaos, bifurcation, synchronization and anti-synchronization, stability, lumped mass and continuous mechanical systems modeling, novel nonlinear phenomena, and resonances are discussed

Modelling Power Spikes with Inhomogeneous Markov-Switching Models

Interest in modelling electricity prices has, despite its relatively short history, resulted in widespread types of models that tend to be too intricate to incorporate most price characteristics. This thesis pursues a flexible approach that comprehends stylized facts of electricity prices while it still handles complexity in order to facilitate calibration and forecasting. Although time-varying transitions of non-linear Markov-switching models add a new dimension to the problem, the extension is pivotal to encompass the timing of power spikes. Simulation studies provide a comparison between the maximum likelihood estimator and the EM algorithm and validate the precision of the estimators. A comprehensive study of the model framework in the independent regime setting that is applied to real data from the German and Nordic markets confirms the hypothesis that extensive models with exogenous variables outperform time-invariant counterparts. Improvements of electricity price dynamics and other issues involved in the process of modelling electricity prices as well as potential future research topics are also suggested and discussed

Computational Intelligence in Electromyography Analysis

Electromyography (EMG) is a technique for evaluating and recording the electrical activity produced by skeletal muscles. EMG may be used clinically for the diagnosis of neuromuscular problems and for assessing biomechanical and motor control deficits and other functional disorders. Furthermore, it can be used as a control signal for interfacing with orthotic and/or prosthetic devices or other rehabilitation assists. This book presents an updated overview of signal processing applications and recent developments in EMG from a number of diverse aspects and various applications in clinical and experimental research. It will provide readers with a detailed introduction to EMG signal processing techniques and applications, while presenting several new results and explanation of existing algorithms. This book is organized into 18 chapters, covering the current theoretical and practical approaches of EMG research

The Multi-Agent Transport Simulation MATSim

"The MATSim (Multi-Agent Transport Simulation) software project was started around 2006 with the goal of generating traffic and congestion patterns by following individual synthetic travelers through their daily or weekly activity programme. It has since then evolved from a collection of stand-alone C++ programs to an integrated Java-based framework which is publicly hosted, open-source available, automatically regression tested. It is currently used by about 40 groups throughout the world. This book takes stock of the current status. The first part of the book gives an introduction to the most important concepts, with the intention of enabling a potential user to set up and run basic simulations.The second part of the book describes how the basic functionality can be extended, for example by adding schedule-based public transit, electric or autonomous cars, paratransit, or within-day replanning. For each extension, the text provides pointers to the additional documentation and to the code base. It is also discussed how people with appropriate Java programming skills can write their own extensions, and plug them into the MATSim core. The project has started from the basic idea that traffic is a consequence of human behavior, and thus humans and their behavior should be the starting point of all modelling, and with the intuition that when simulations with 100 million particles are possible in computational physics, then behavior-oriented simulations with 10 million travelers should be possible in travel behavior research. The initial implementations thus combined concepts from computational physics and complex adaptive systems with concepts from travel behavior research. The third part of the book looks at theoretical concepts that are able to describe important aspects of the simulation system; for example, under certain conditions the code becomes a Monte Carlo engine sampling from a discrete choice model. Another important aspect is the interpretation of the MATSim score as utility in the microeconomic sense, opening up a connection to benefit cost analysis. Finally, the book collects use cases as they have been undertaken with MATSim. All current users of MATSim were invited to submit their work, and many followed with sometimes crisp and short and sometimes longer contributions, always with pointers to additional references. We hope that the book will become an invitation to explore, to build and to extend agent-based modeling of travel behavior from the stable and well tested core of MATSim documented here.