Intention-aware Long Horizon Trajectory Prediction of Surrounding Vehicles using Dual LSTM Networks

As autonomous vehicles (AVs) need to interact with other road users, it is of importance to comprehensively understand the dynamic traffic environment, especially the future possible trajectories of surrounding vehicles. This paper presents an algorithm for long-horizon trajectory prediction of surrounding vehicles using a dual long short term memory (LSTM) network, which is capable of effectively improving prediction accuracy in strongly interactive driving environments. In contrast to traditional approaches which require trajectory matching and manual feature selection, this method can automatically learn high-level spatial-temporal features of driver behaviors from naturalistic driving data through sequence learning. By employing two blocks of LSTMs, the proposed method feeds the sequential trajectory to the first LSTM for driver intention recognition as an intermediate indicator, which is immediately followed by a second LSTM for future trajectory prediction. Test results from real-world highway driving data show that the proposed method can, in comparison to state-of-art methods, output more accurate and reasonable estimate of different future trajectories over 5s time horizon with root mean square error (RMSE) for longitudinal and lateral prediction less than 5.77m and 0.49m, respectively.Comment: Published at the 21st International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC), 201

Deep Learning-based Vehicle Behaviour Prediction For Autonomous Driving Applications: A Review

Behaviour prediction function of an autonomous vehicle predicts the future states of the nearby vehicles based on the current and past observations of the surrounding environment. This helps enhance their awareness of the imminent hazards. However, conventional behaviour prediction solutions are applicable in simple driving scenarios that require short prediction horizons. Most recently, deep learning-based approaches have become popular due to their superior performance in more complex environments compared to the conventional approaches. Motivated by this increased popularity, we provide a comprehensive review of the state-of-the-art of deep learning-based approaches for vehicle behaviour prediction in this paper. We firstly give an overview of the generic problem of vehicle behaviour prediction and discuss its challenges, followed by classification and review of the most recent deep learning-based solutions based on three criteria: input representation, output type, and prediction method. The paper also discusses the performance of several well-known solutions, identifies the research gaps in the literature and outlines potential new research directions

BAT: Behavior-Aware Human-Like Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving

The ability to accurately predict the trajectory of surrounding vehicles is a critical hurdle to overcome on the journey to fully autonomous vehicles. To address this challenge, we pioneer a novel behavior-aware trajectory prediction model (BAT) that incorporates insights and findings from traffic psychology, human behavior, and decision-making. Our model consists of behavior-aware, interaction-aware, priority-aware, and position-aware modules that perceive and understand the underlying interactions and account for uncertainty and variability in prediction, enabling higher-level learning and flexibility without rigid categorization of driving behavior. Importantly, this approach eliminates the need for manual labeling in the training process and addresses the challenges of non-continuous behavior labeling and the selection of appropriate time windows. We evaluate BAT's performance across the Next Generation Simulation (NGSIM), Highway Drone (HighD), Roundabout Drone (RounD), and Macao Connected Autonomous Driving (MoCAD) datasets, showcasing its superiority over prevailing state-of-the-art (SOTA) benchmarks in terms of prediction accuracy and efficiency. Remarkably, even when trained on reduced portions of the training data (25%), our model outperforms most of the baselines, demonstrating its robustness and efficiency in predicting vehicle trajectories, and the potential to reduce the amount of data required to train autonomous vehicles, especially in corner cases. In conclusion, the behavior-aware model represents a significant advancement in the development of autonomous vehicles capable of predicting trajectories with the same level of proficiency as human drivers. The project page is available at https://github.com/Petrichor625/BATraj-Behavior-aware-Model

Early Lane Change Prediction for Automated Driving Systems Using Multi-Task Attention-based Convolutional Neural Networks

Lane change (LC) is one of the safety-critical manoeuvres in highway driving according to various road accident records. Thus, reliably predicting such manoeuvre in advance is critical for the safe and comfortable operation of automated driving systems. The majority of previous studies rely on detecting a manoeuvre that has been already started, rather than predicting the manoeuvre in advance. Furthermore, most of the previous works do not estimate the key timings of the manoeuvre (e.g., crossing time), which can actually yield more useful information for the decision making in the ego vehicle. To address these shortcomings, this paper proposes a novel multi-task model to simultaneously estimate the likelihood of LC manoeuvres and the time-to-lane-change (TTLC). In both tasks, an attention-based convolutional neural network (CNN) is used as a shared feature extractor from a bird's eye view representation of the driving environment. The spatial attention used in the CNN model improves the feature extraction process by focusing on the most relevant areas of the surrounding environment. In addition, two novel curriculum learning schemes are employed to train the proposed approach. The extensive evaluation and comparative analysis of the proposed method in existing benchmark datasets show that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art LC prediction models, particularly considering long-term prediction performance.Comment: 13 pages, 11 figure

Interaction-Aware Personalized Vehicle Trajectory Prediction Using Temporal Graph Neural Networks

Accurate prediction of vehicle trajectories is vital for advanced driver assistance systems and autonomous vehicles. Existing methods mainly rely on generic trajectory predictions derived from large datasets, overlooking the personalized driving patterns of individual drivers. To address this gap, we propose an approach for interaction-aware personalized vehicle trajectory prediction that incorporates temporal graph neural networks. Our method utilizes Graph Convolution Networks (GCN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to model the spatio-temporal interactions between target vehicles and their surrounding traffic. To personalize the predictions, we establish a pipeline that leverages transfer learning: the model is initially pre-trained on a large-scale trajectory dataset and then fine-tuned for each driver using their specific driving data. We employ human-in-the-loop simulation to collect personalized naturalistic driving trajectories and corresponding surrounding vehicle trajectories. Experimental results demonstrate the superior performance of our personalized GCN-LSTM model, particularly for longer prediction horizons, compared to its generic counterpart. Moreover, the personalized model outperforms individual models created without pre-training, emphasizing the significance of pre-training on a large dataset to avoid overfitting. By incorporating personalization, our approach enhances trajectory prediction accuracy

A Novel Deep Neural Network for Trajectory Prediction in Automated Vehicles Using Velocity Vector Field

Anticipating the motion of other road users is crucial for automated driving systems (ADS), as it enables safe and informed downstream decision-making and motion planning. Unfortunately, contemporary learning-based approaches for motion prediction exhibit significant performance degradation as the prediction horizon increases or the observation window decreases. This paper proposes a novel technique for trajectory prediction that combines a data-driven learning-based method with a velocity vector field (VVF) generated from a nature-inspired concept, i.e., fluid flow dynamics. In this work, the vector field is incorporated as an additional input to a convolutional-recurrent deep neural network to help predict the most likely future trajectories given a sequence of bird's eye view scene representations. The performance of the proposed model is compared with state-of-the-art methods on the HighD dataset demonstrating that the VVF inclusion improves the prediction accuracy for both short and long-term (5~sec) time horizons. It is also shown that the accuracy remains consistent with decreasing observation windows which alleviates the requirement of a long history of past observations for accurate trajectory prediction. Source codes are available at: https://github.com/Amir-Samadi/VVF-TP.Comment: This paper has been accepted and nominated as the best student paper at the 26th IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC 2023

Edge Learning of Vehicular Trajectories at Regulated Intersections

Trajectory prediction is crucial in assisting both human-driven and autonomous vehicles. Most of the existing approaches, however, focus on straight stretches of road and do not address trajectory prediction at intersections. This work aims to fill this gap by proposing a solution that copes with the higher complexity exhibited for the intersection scenario, leveraging the 5G-MEC capabilities. In particular, the reduced latency and edge computational power are exploited to centrally collect and process measurements from both vehicles (e.g., odometry) and road infrastructure (e.g., traffic light phases). Based on such a holistic system view, we develop a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network which, as shown through simulations using a real-world dataset, provides high-accuracy trajectory predictions. The encountered challenges and advantages of the presented approach are analyzed in detail, paving the way for a new vehicle trajectory prediction methodology