Intelligent software system for optimizing adaptive control of investment projecting processes

The article describes the functionality developed by the authors of an intelligent computer software system for optimizing adaptive control of investment projecting processes in the face of uncertainty. The results of the work are based on a new method of network formalization and optimization of adaptive project control using network economic and mathematical modeling and principles of adaptive control. The developed intelligent computer program system is projecting to automate the modeling of investment projecting processes and optimize adaptive decision-making control during their implementation on the basis of network economic and mathematical modeling, as well as methods andtools for developing intelligent software systems. This system takes into account the existing specific technical and economic conditions and information support. The basis of the developed intelligent computer software system is the use of a new method of network formalization and of adaptive project control optimization, modernized to solve the problems of investment projecting. The results obtained in this work can serve as the basis for creating intelligent instrumental systems for supporting managerial decision-making in the implementation of investment projecting processes in the context of information uncertainty and risks. © 2020 Author(s).This work was supported by the Russian Basic Research Foundation, project no. 18-01-00544 “Problems attainability, control, estimation in dynamical systems with impulse control and uncertainty.

An intelligent system for risk classification of stock investment projects

The proposed paper demonstrates that a hybrid fuzzy neural network can serve as a risk classifier of stock investment projects. The training algorithm for the regular part of the network is based on bidirectional incremental evolution proving more efficient than direct evolution. The approach is compared with other crisp and soft investment appraisal and trading techniques, while building a multimodel domain representation for an intelligent decision support system. Thus the advantages of each model are utilised while looking at the investment problem from different perspectives. The empirical results are based on UK companies traded on the London Stock Exchange

Precise vehicle location as a fundamental parameter for intelligent selfaware rail-track maintenance systems

The rail industry in the UK is undergoing substantial changes in response to a modernisation vision for 2040. Development and implementation of these will lead to a highly automated and safe railway. Real-time regulation of traffic will optimise the performance of the network, with trains running in succession within an adjacent movable safety zone. Critically, maintenance will use intelligent trainborne and track-based systems. These will provide accurate and timely information for condition based intervention at precise track locations, reducing possession downtime and minimising the presence of workers in operating railways. Clearly, precise knowledge of trains’ real-time location is of paramount importance. The positional accuracy demand of the future railway is less than 2m. A critical consideration of this requirement is the capability to resolve train occupancy in adjacent tracks, with the highest degree of confidence. A finer resolution is required for locating faults such as damage or missing parts, precisely. Location of trains currently relies on track signalling technology. However, these systems mostly provide an indication of the presence of trains within discrete track sections. The standard Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), cannot precisely and reliably resolve location as required either. Within the context of the needs of the future railway, state of the art location technologies and systems were reviewed and critiqued. It was found that no current technology is able to resolve location as required. Uncertainty is a significant factor. A new integrated approach employing complimentary technologies and more efficient data fusion process, can potentially offer a more accurate and robust solution. Data fusion architectures enabling intelligent self-aware rail-track maintenance systems are proposed

An agent-based fuzzy cognitive map approach to the strategic marketing planning for industrial firms

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in Industrial Marketing Management. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2013 Elsevier B.V.Industrial marketing planning is a typical example of an unstructured decision making problem due to the large number of variables to consider and the uncertainty imposed on those variables. Although abundant studies identified barriers and facilitators of effective industrial marketing planning in practice, the literature still lacks practical tools and methods that marketing managers can use for the task. This paper applies fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) to industrial marketing planning. In particular, agent based inference method is proposed to overcome dynamic relationships, time lags, and reusability issues of FCM evaluation. MACOM simulator also is developed to help marketing managers conduct what-if scenarios to see the impacts of possible changes on the variables defined in an FCM that represents industrial marketing planning problem. The simulator is applied to an industrial marketing planning problem for a global software service company in South Korea. This study has practical implication as it supports marketing managers for industrial marketing planning that has large number of variables and their cause–effect relationships. It also contributes to FCM theory by providing an agent based method for the inference of FCM. Finally, MACOM also provides academics in the industrial marketing management discipline with a tool for developing and pre-verifying a conceptual model based on qualitative knowledge of marketing practitioners.Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (Korea

Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Agents: Towards the Next Step of Capital Budgeting Decision Support

The economic life of large investments is long and thus necessitates constant dynamic managerial actions. To be able to act in an optimal way in the dynamic management of large investments managers need the support of advanced analytical tools. They need to have constant access to information about the real time situation of the investment, as well as, access to up-to-date information about changes in the business environment. What is more challenging, they need to integrate qualitative information into quantitative analysis process, and to integrate foresight information into the capital budgeting process. In this paper we will look at how emerging soft computing technologies, specifically fuzzy logic and intelligent agents, will help to provide a better support in such a context and then to frame a support system that will make an integrated application of the aforementioned technologies. We will first develop a holistic framework for an agent-facilitated capital budgeting system using a fuzzy real option approach. We will then discuss how intelligent agents can be applied to collect decision information, both qualitative and quantitative, and to facilitate the integration of foresight information into capital budgeting process. Integration of qualitative information into quantitative analysis process will be discussed. Methods for integrating qualitative and quantitative information into fuzzy numbers, as well as, methods for using the fuzzy numbers in capital budgeting will be presented. A specification of how the agents can be constructed is elaborated.Intelligent Agents, Fuzzy Sets, Capital Budgeting, Real Options, DSS

Connecting adaptive behaviour and expectations in models of innovation: The Potential Role of Artificial Neural Networks

In this methodological work I explore the possibility of explicitly modelling expectations conditioning the R&D decisions of firms. In order to isolate this problem from the controversies of cognitive science, I propose a black box strategy through the concept of “internal model”. The last part of the article uses artificial neural networks to model the expectations of firms in a model of industry dynamics based on Nelson & Winter (1982)

Research Agenda in Intelligent Infrastructure to Enhance Disaster Management, Community Resilience and Public Safety

Modern societies can be understood as the intersection of four interdependent systems: (1) the natural environment of geography, climate and weather; (2) the built environment of cities, engineered systems, and physical infrastructure; (3) the social environment of human populations, communities and socio-economic activities; and (4) an information ecosystem that overlays the other three domains and provides the means for understanding, interacting with, and managing the relationships between the natural, built, and human environments. As the nation and its communities become more connected, networked and technologically sophisticated, new challenges and opportunities arise that demand a rethinking of current approaches to public safety and emergency management. Addressing the current and future challenges requires an equally sophisticated program of research, technology development, and strategic planning. The design and integration of intelligent infrastructure-including embedded sensors, the Internet of Things (IoT), advanced wireless information technologies, real-time data capture and analysis, and machine-learning-based decision support-holds the potential to greatly enhance public safety, emergency management, disaster recovery, and overall community resilience, while addressing new and emerging threats to public safety and security. Ultimately, the objective of this program of research and development is to save lives, reduce risk and disaster impacts, permit efficient use of material and social resources, and protect quality of life and economic stability across entire regions.Comment: A Computing Community Consortium (CCC) white paper, 4 page