Peramalan Beban Listrik Kabupaten Pesisir Selatan Dengan Analisis Regresi

The more electric vehicles emerge, the more electricity demand will increase in each region. This will encourage electricity providers to increase the number or capacity of generators. The construction of a new power plant requires load forecasting to determine how much capacity the plant will build. This study aims to predict the electrical load in Pesisir Selatan, West Sumatra until 2031 using linear regression analysis and time series. Forecasting is done on each sector of PLN customers. Forecasting is done based on the PLN customer sector. The forecasting sectors are the household, business, social and government sectors. The four test criteria were carried out are namely the coefficient of determination test (R2), the F test, the T test and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The forecasting results show that in 2031 the electricity load for the household sector is 120.1 MW, the business sector is 5.7 MW, the social sector is 56.9 MW and the government is 9.5 MW

A Review of Forecasting Techniques

This work examines recent publications in forecasting in various fields, these include: wind power forecasting; electricity load forecasting; crude oil price forecasting; gold price forecasting energy price forecasting etc. In this review, categorization of the processes involve in forecasting are divided into four major steps namely: input features selection; data pre-processing; forecast model development and performance evaluation. The various methods involve are discussed in order to provide the overall view about possible options for development of forecasting system. It is intended that the classification of the steps into small categories with definitions of terms and discussion of evolving techniques will provide guidance for future forecasting sytem designers

Greek long-term energy consumption prediction using artificial neural networks

In this paper artificial neural networks (ANN) are addressed in order the Greek long-term energy consumption to be predicted. The multilayer perceptron model (MLP) has been used for this purpose by testing several possible architectures in order to be selected the one with the best generalizing ability. Actual recorded input and output data that influence long-term energy consumption were used in the training, validation and testing process. The developed ANN model is used for the prediction of 2005-2008, 2010, 2012 and 2015 Greek energy consumption. The produced ANN results for years 2005-2008 were compared with the results produced by a linear regression method, a support vector machine method and with real energy consumption records showing a great accuracy. The proposed approach can be useful in the effective implementation of energy policies, since accurate predictions of energy consumption affect the capital investment, the environmental quality, the revenue analysis, the market research management, while conserve at the same time the supply security. Furthermore it constitutes an accurate tool for the Greek long-term energy consumption prediction problem, which up today has not been faced effectively

A real application on non-technical losses detection: the MIDAS Project

The MIDAS project began at 2006 as collaboration between Endesa, Sadiel and the University of Seville. The objective of the MIDAS project is the detection of Non-Technical Losses (NTLs) on power utilities. The NTLs represent the non-billed energy due to faults or illegal manipulations in clients’ facilities. Initially, research lines study the application of techniques of data mining and neural networks. After several researches, the studies are expanded to other research fields: expert systems, text mining, statistical techniques, pattern recognition, etc. These techniques have provided an automated system for detection of NTLs on company databases. This system is in test phase and it is applied in real cases in company databases

Energy Consumption and Modeling of output energy with Multilayer Feed-Forward Neural Network for Corn Silage in Iran

In this study, various Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) were developed to estimate the output energy for corn silage production in Esfahan province, Iran. For this purpose, the data on 65 corn silage production farms in the Esfahan province, were collected and analyzed. The results indicated that total energy input for corn silage production was about 83126 MJ ha–1; machinery (with 38.8 %) and chemical fertilizer (with 24.5 %) were amongst the highest energy inputs for corn silage production. The developed ANN was a multilayer perceptron (MLP) with eight neurons in the input layer (human power, machinery, diesel fuel, chemical fertilizer, water for irrigation, seed, farm manure and pesticides ), one, two, three, four and five hidden layer(s) of various numbers of neurons and one neuron (output energy) in the output layer. The results of ANNs analyze showed that the (8-5-5-1)-MLP, namely, a network having five neurons in the first and second hidden layer was the best-suited model estimating the corn silage output energy. For this topology, MAB, MAE, RMSE and R2 were 0.109, 0.001, 0.0464 and 98%, respectively. The sensitivity analysis of input parameters on output showed that diesel fuel and seeds had the highest and lowest sensitivity on output energy with 0.0984 and 0.0386, respectively. The ANN approach appears to be a suitable method for modeling output energy, fuel consumption, CO2 emission, yield, and energy consumption based on social and technical parameters. This method would open new doors to advances in agriculture and modeling

Building power control and comfort management using genetic programming and fuzzy logic

In the last couple of years, energy management in the building environment has been a topic of interest to the research community. A number of renowned methods exist in the literature for energy management in buildings, but the trade-off between occupants comfort level and energy consumption is still a major challenge and needs more attention. In this paper, we propose a power control model for comfort and energy saving, using a fuzzy controller and genetic programming (GP). Our focus is to increase the occupants’ comfort index and to minimize the energy consumption simultaneously. First, we implemented a Genetic Algorithm (GA) to optimize the environmental parameters. Second, we control the environment using fuzzy logic and third, we predict the consumed power using GP. The environmental and comfort parameters considered are temperature, illumination and air quality. At the end of the work we compare the power consumption results with and without prediction. The results confirmed the effectiveness of the proposed technique in getting the solution for the above mentioned problem

A forecasting Tool for Predicting Australia\u27s Domestic Airline Passenger Demand Using a Genetic Algorithm

This study has proposed and empirically tested for the first time genetic algorithm optimization models for modelling Australia’s domestic airline passenger demand, as measured by enplaned passengers (GAPAXDE model) and revenue passenger kilometres performed (GARPKSDE model). Data was divided into training and testing datasets; 74 training datasets were used to estimate the weighting factors of the genetic algorithm models and 13 out-of-sample datasets were used for testing the robustness of the genetic algorithm models. The genetic algorithm parameters used in this study comprised population size (n): 200; the generation number: 1,000; and mutation rate: 0.01. The modelling results have shown that both the quadratic GAPAXDE and GARPKSDE models are more accurate, reliable, and have greater predictive capability as compared to the linear models. The mean absolute percentage error in the out of sample testing dataset for the GAPAXDE and GARPKSDE quadratic models are 2.55 and 2.23%, respectively

Modeling of electricity demand forecast for power system

© 2019, Springer-Verlag London Ltd., part of Springer Nature. The emerging complex circumstances caused by economy, technology, and government policy and the requirement of low-carbon development of power grid lead to many challenges in the power system coordination and operation. However, the real-time scheduling of electricity generation needs accurate modeling of electricity demand forecasting for a range of lead times. In order to better capture the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics and the seasonal cycles of future electricity demand data, a new concept of the integrated model is developed and successfully applied to research the forecast of electricity demand in this paper. The proposed model combines adaptive Fourier decomposition method, a new signal preprocessing technology, for extracting useful element from the original electricity demand series through filtering the noise factors. Considering the seasonal term existing in the decomposed series, it should be eliminated through the seasonal adjustment method, in which the seasonal indexes are calculated and should multiply the forecasts back to restore the final forecast. Besides, a newly proposed moth-flame optimization algorithm is used to ensure the suitable parameters of the least square support vector machine which can generate the forecasts. Finally, the case studies of Australia demonstrated the efficacy and feasibility of the proposed integrated model. Simultaneously, it can provide a better concept of modeling for electricity demand prediction over different forecasting horizons

Guidelines for Increasing the Effectiveness of Thailand’s Sustainable Development Policy based on Energy Consumption: Enriching the Path-GARCH Model

The objective of this study is to develop a model for forecasting energy consumption and to increase the effectiveness of Thailand's sustainable development policy based on energy consumption by using the best model, the Path Analysis-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model (Path-GARCH model). To improve the effectiveness of sustainability policies, the researcher has envisioned the final energy consumption over a 20-year period (AD 2023–2022) by defining a new scenario policy. Comparing the performance of the Path-GARCH model to other previous models, the Path-GARCH model was found to have the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE) values. In addition, the study found that energy consumption continued to rise to 125,055 ktoe by 2042, with a growth rate of 115.05% between 2042 and 2023, which exceeded the carrying capacity limit of 90,000 ktoe. When a new scenario policy is implemented, however, the final energy consumption continues to rise to 74,091 ktoe (2042). Consequently, defining a new scenario policy is a crucial development guideline for enhancing the effectiveness of Thailand's sustainable development policy