Predicting epidemic evolution on contact networks from partial observations

The massive employment of computational models in network epidemiology calls for the development of improved inference methods for epidemic forecast. For simple compartment models, such as the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model, Belief Propagation was proved to be a reliable and efficient method to identify the origin of an observed epidemics. Here we show that the same method can be applied to predict the future evolution of an epidemic outbreak from partial observations at the early stage of the dynamics. The results obtained using Belief Propagation are compared with Monte Carlo direct sampling in the case of SIR model on random (regular and power-law) graphs for different observation methods and on an example of real-world contact network. Belief Propagation gives in general a better prediction that direct sampling, although the quality of the prediction depends on the quantity under study (e.g. marginals of individual states, epidemic size, extinction-time distribution) and on the actual number of observed nodes that are infected before the observation time

The effects of heterogeneity on stochastic cycles in epidemics

Models of biological processes are often subject to different sources of noise. Developing an understanding of the combined effects of different types of uncertainty is an open challenge. In this paper, we study a variant of the susceptible-infective-recovered model of epidemic spread, which combines both agent-to-agent heterogeneity and intrinsic noise. We focus on epidemic cycles, driven by the stochasticity of infection and recovery events, and study in detail how heterogeneity in susceptibilities and propensities to pass on the disease affects these quasi-cycles. While the system can only be described by a large hierarchical set of equations in the transient regime, we derive a reduced closed set of equations for population-level quantities in the stationary regime. We analytically obtain the spectra of quasi-cycles in the linear-noise approximation. We find that the characteristic frequency of these cycles is typically determined by population averages of susceptibilities and infectivities, but that their amplitude depends on higher-order moments of the heterogeneity. We also investigate the synchronisation properties and phase lag between different groups of susceptible and infected individuals.Comment: Main text 16 pages, 9 figures. Supplement 5 page

Temporal Fidelity in Dynamic Social Networks

It has recently become possible to record detailed social interactions in large social systems with high resolution. As we study these datasets, human social interactions display patterns that emerge at multiple time scales, from minutes to months. On a fundamental level, understanding of the network dynamics can be used to inform the process of measuring social networks. The details of measurement are of particular importance when considering dynamic processes where minute-to-minute details are important, because collection of physical proximity interactions with high temporal resolution is difficult and expensive. Here, we consider the dynamic network of proximity-interactions between approximately 500 individuals participating in the Copenhagen Networks Study. We show that in order to accurately model spreading processes in the network, the dynamic processes that occur on the order of minutes are essential and must be included in the analysis

Data-Centric Epidemic Forecasting: A Survey

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought forth the importance of epidemic forecasting for decision makers in multiple domains, ranging from public health to the economy as a whole. While forecasting epidemic progression is frequently conceptualized as being analogous to weather forecasting, however it has some key differences and remains a non-trivial task. The spread of diseases is subject to multiple confounding factors spanning human behavior, pathogen dynamics, weather and environmental conditions. Research interest has been fueled by the increased availability of rich data sources capturing previously unobservable facets and also due to initiatives from government public health and funding agencies. This has resulted, in particular, in a spate of work on 'data-centered' solutions which have shown potential in enhancing our forecasting capabilities by leveraging non-traditional data sources as well as recent innovations in AI and machine learning. This survey delves into various data-driven methodological and practical advancements and introduces a conceptual framework to navigate through them. First, we enumerate the large number of epidemiological datasets and novel data streams that are relevant to epidemic forecasting, capturing various factors like symptomatic online surveys, retail and commerce, mobility, genomics data and more. Next, we discuss methods and modeling paradigms focusing on the recent data-driven statistical and deep-learning based methods as well as on the novel class of hybrid models that combine domain knowledge of mechanistic models with the effectiveness and flexibility of statistical approaches. We also discuss experiences and challenges that arise in real-world deployment of these forecasting systems including decision-making informed by forecasts. Finally, we highlight some challenges and open problems found across the forecasting pipeline.Comment: 67 pages, 12 figure

Belief Propagation approach to epidemics prediction on networks

In my thesis I study the problem of predicting the evolution of the epidemic spreading on networks when incomplete information, in form of a partial observation, is available. I focus on the irreversible process described by the discrete time version of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model on networks. Because of its intrinsic stochasticity, forecasting the SIR process is very difficult, even if the structure of individuals contact pattern is known. In today's interconnected and interdependent society, infectious diseases pose the threat of a worldwide epidemic spreading, hence governments and public health systems maintain surveillance programs to report and control the emergence of new disease event ranging from the seasonal influenza to the more severe HIV or Ebola. When new infection cases are discovered in the population it is necessary to provide real-time forecasting of the epidemic evolution. However the incompleteness of accessible data and the intrinsic stochasticity of the contagion pose a major challenge. The idea behind the work of my thesis is that the correct inference of the contagion process before the detection of the disease permits to use all the available information and, consequently, to obtain reliable predictions. I use the Belief Propagation approach for the prediction of SIR epidemics when a partial observation is available. In this case the reconstruction of the past dynamics can be efficiently performed by this method and exploited to analyze the evolution of the disease. Although the Belief Propagation provides exact results on trees, it turns out that is still a good approximation on general graphs. In this cases Belief Propagation may present convergence related issues, especially on dense networks. Moreover, since this approach is based on a very general principle, it can be adapted to study a wide range of issues, some of which I analyze in the thesis

Modern temporal network theory: A colloquium

The power of any kind of network approach lies in the ability to simplify a complex system so that one can better understand its function as a whole. Sometimes it is beneficial, however, to include more information than in a simple graph of only nodes and links. Adding information about times of interactions can make predictions and mechanistic understanding more accurate. The drawback, however, is that there are not so many methods available, partly because temporal networks is a relatively young field, partly because it more difficult to develop such methods compared to for static networks. In this colloquium, we review the methods to analyze and model temporal networks and processes taking place on them, focusing mainly on the last three years. This includes the spreading of infectious disease, opinions, rumors, in social networks; information packets in computer networks; various types of signaling in biology, and more. We also discuss future directions.Comment: Final accepted versio