34,085 research outputs found
DeepCare: A Deep Dynamic Memory Model for Predictive Medicine
Personalized predictive medicine necessitates the modeling of patient illness
and care processes, which inherently have long-term temporal dependencies.
Healthcare observations, recorded in electronic medical records, are episodic
and irregular in time. We introduce DeepCare, an end-to-end deep dynamic neural
network that reads medical records, stores previous illness history, infers
current illness states and predicts future medical outcomes. At the data level,
DeepCare represents care episodes as vectors in space, models patient health
state trajectories through explicit memory of historical records. Built on Long
Short-Term Memory (LSTM), DeepCare introduces time parameterizations to handle
irregular timed events by moderating the forgetting and consolidation of memory
cells. DeepCare also incorporates medical interventions that change the course
of illness and shape future medical risk. Moving up to the health state level,
historical and present health states are then aggregated through multiscale
temporal pooling, before passing through a neural network that estimates future
outcomes. We demonstrate the efficacy of DeepCare for disease progression
modeling, intervention recommendation, and future risk prediction. On two
important cohorts with heavy social and economic burden -- diabetes and mental
health -- the results show improved modeling and risk prediction accuracy.Comment: Accepted at JBI under the new name: "Predicting healthcare
trajectories from medical records: A deep learning approach
Reduced order modeling of fluid flows: Machine learning, Kolmogorov barrier, closure modeling, and partitioning
In this paper, we put forth a long short-term memory (LSTM) nudging framework
for the enhancement of reduced order models (ROMs) of fluid flows utilizing
noisy measurements. We build on the fact that in a realistic application, there
are uncertainties in initial conditions, boundary conditions, model parameters,
and/or field measurements. Moreover, conventional nonlinear ROMs based on
Galerkin projection (GROMs) suffer from imperfection and solution instabilities
due to the modal truncation, especially for advection-dominated flows with slow
decay in the Kolmogorov width. In the presented LSTM-Nudge approach, we fuse
forecasts from a combination of imperfect GROM and uncertain state estimates,
with sparse Eulerian sensor measurements to provide more reliable predictions
in a dynamical data assimilation framework. We illustrate the idea with the
viscous Burgers problem, as a benchmark test bed with quadratic nonlinearity
and Laplacian dissipation. We investigate the effects of measurements noise and
state estimate uncertainty on the performance of the LSTM-Nudge behavior. We
also demonstrate that it can sufficiently handle different levels of temporal
and spatial measurement sparsity. This first step in our assessment of the
proposed model shows that the LSTM nudging could represent a viable realtime
predictive tool in emerging digital twin systems
A rigorous statistical framework for spatio-temporal pollution prediction and estimation of its long-term impact on health
In the United Kingdom, air pollution is linked to around 40000 premature deaths each year, but estimating its health effects is challenging in a spatio-temporal study. The challenges include spatial misalignment between the pollution and disease data; uncertainty in the estimated pollution surface; and complex residual spatio-temporal autocorrelation in the disease data. This article develops a two-stage model that addresses these issues. The first stage is a spatio-temporal fusion model linking modeled and measured pollution data, while the second stage links these predictions to the disease data. The methodology is motivated by a new five-year study investigating the effects of multiple pollutants on respiratory hospitalizations in England between 2007 and 2011, using pollution and disease data relating to local and unitary authorities on a monthly time scale
TiDeH: Time-Dependent Hawkes Process for Predicting Retweet Dynamics
Online social networking services allow their users to post content in the
form of text, images or videos. The main mechanism driving content diffusion is
the possibility for users to re-share the content posted by their social
connections, which may then cascade across the system. A fundamental problem
when studying information cascades is the possibility to develop sound
mathematical models, whose parameters can be calibrated on empirical data, in
order to predict the future course of a cascade after a window of observation.
In this paper, we focus on Twitter and, in particular, on the temporal patterns
of retweet activity for an original tweet. We model the system by
Time-Dependent Hawkes process (TiDeH), which properly takes into account the
circadian nature of the users and the aging of information. The input of the
prediction model are observed retweet times and structural information about
the underlying social network. We develop a procedure for parameter
optimization and for predicting the future profiles of retweet activity at
different time resolutions. We validate our methodology on a large corpus of
Twitter data and demonstrate its systematic improvement over existing
approaches in all the time regimes.Comment: The manuscript has been accepted in the 10th International AAAI
Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM 2016
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