Connecting adaptive behaviour and expectations in models of innovation: The Potential Role of Artificial Neural Networks

In this methodological work I explore the possibility of explicitly modelling expectations conditioning the R&D decisions of firms. In order to isolate this problem from the controversies of cognitive science, I propose a black box strategy through the concept of “internal model”. The last part of the article uses artificial neural networks to model the expectations of firms in a model of industry dynamics based on Nelson & Winter (1982)

Network-constrained models of liberalized electricity markets: the devil is in the details

Numerical models for electricity markets are frequently used to inform and support decisions. How robust are the results? Three research groups used the same, realistic data set for generators, demand and transmission network as input for their numerical models. The results coincide when predicting competitive market results. In the strategic case in which large generators can exercise market power, the predicted prices differed significantly. The results are highly sensitive to assumptions about market design, timing of the market and assumptions about constraints on the rationality of generators. Given the same assumptions the results coincide. We provide a checklist for users to understand the implications of different modelling assumptions

Agent-based modelling - A methodology for the analysis of qualitative development processes

The tremendous development of an easy access to computational power within the last 30 years has led to the widespread use of numerical approaches in almost all scientific disciplines. The first generation of simulation models was rather focused on stylized empirical phenomena. With agent-based modelling, however, the trade-off between simplicity in modelling and taking into account the complexity of the socio-economic reality has been enhanced to a large extent. This paper serves as a basic instruction on how to model qualitative change using an agent-based modelling procedure. The necessity to focus on qualitative change is discussed, agent-based modelling is explained and finally an example is given to show the basic simplicity in modelling.agent-based modelling, methodology, evolutionary economics, qualitative change

A Conceptual Framework to Model Long-Run Qualitative Change in the Energy System

This paper deals with a conceptual framework allowing the analysis of long-run qualitative change in the energy system. The energy sector seems to be particularly appropriate for the analysis of qualitative change due to the following reasons: The energy sector is relevant for the development of the whole economy. When looking on the development of primary energy resources it becomes obvious that different energy sources are of different importance over time and that new energy sources enter the scene from time to time. E.g. the importance of wood is decreasing over last 200 years, whereas coal has reached its peak around the turn of the last century, natural gas entered the scene not before that time. Nuclear energy technologies emerge in the energy supply only after 1960s. Furthermore, compared to other sectors qualitative change in the energy sector proceeds in relative long time periods. Accordingly, different mechanisms and effects are comparatively easier to separate as not too many overlapping developments are considered to appear simultaneously, which makes the discrimination of causes and effects more difficult. Related to this, it is not invention that plays a particular important role but it is both innovation as the first commercial application and diffusion as the spreading out of the new technologies. This means that in the analysis strong technological uncertainty does play a minor role, most often the relevant technologies do already exist as blue-prints and the transformation process basically deals with the application and improvement of these technologies.energy; qualitative change; agend based models

A review of Multi-Agent Simulation Models in Agriculture

Multi-Agent Simulation (MAS) models are intended to capture emergent properties of complex systems that are not amenable to equilibrium analysis. They are beginning to see some use for analysing agricultural systems. The paper reports on work in progress to create a MAS for specific sectors in New Zealand agriculture. One part of the paper focuses on options for modelling land and other resources such as water, labour and capital in this model, as well as markets for exchanging resources and commodities. A second part considers options for modelling agent heterogeneity, especially risk preferences of farmers, and the impacts on decision-making. The final section outlines the MAS that the authors will be constructing over the next few years and the types of research questions that the model will help investigate.multi-agent simulation models, modelling, agent-based model, cellular automata, decision-making, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, Livestock Production/Industries,

MODELLING EXPECTATIONS WITH GENEFER- AN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE APPROACH

Economic modelling of financial markets means to model highly complex systems in which expectations can be the dominant driving forces. Therefore it is necessary to focus on how agents form their expectations. We believe that they look for patterns, hypothesize, try, make mistakes, learn and adapt. AgentsÆ bounded rationality leads us to a rule-based approach which we model using Fuzzy Rule-Bases. E. g. if a single agent believes the exchange rate is determined by a set of possible inputs and is asked to put their relationship in words his answer will probably reveal a fuzzy nature like: "IF the inflation rate in the EURO-Zone is low and the GDP growth rate is larger than in the US THEN the EURO will rise against the USD". æLowÆ and ælargerÆ are fuzzy terms which give a gradual linguistic meaning to crisp intervalls in the respective universes of discourse. In order to learn a Fuzzy Fuzzy Rule base from examples we introduce Genetic Algorithms and Artificial Neural Networks as learning operators. These examples can either be empirical data or originate from an economic simulation model. The software GENEFER (GEnetic NEural Fuzzy ExplorER) has been developed for designing such a Fuzzy Rule Base. The design process is modular and comprises Input Identification, Fuzzification, Rule-Base Generating and Rule-Base Tuning. The two latter steps make use of genetic and neural learning algorithms for optimizing the Fuzzy Rule-Base.

The influence of topology and information diffusion on networked game dynamics

This thesis studies the influence of topology and information diffusion on the strategic interactions of agents in a population. It shows that there exists a reciprocal relationship between the topology, information diffusion and the strategic interactions of a population of players. In order to evaluate the influence of topology and information flow on networked game dynamics, strategic games are simulated on populations of players where the players are distributed in a non-homogeneous spatial arrangement. The initial component of this research consists of a study of evolution of the coordination of strategic players, where the topology or the structure of the population is shown to be critical in defining the coordination among the players. Next, the effect of network topology on the evolutionary stability of strategies is studied in detail. Based on the results obtained, it is shown that network topology plays a key role in determining the evolutionary stability of a particular strategy in a population of players. Then, the effect of network topology on the optimum placement of strategies is studied. Using genetic optimisation, it is shown that the placement of strategies in a spatially distributed population of players is crucial in maximising the collective payoff of the population. Exploring further the effect of network topology and information diffusion on networked games, the non-optimal or bounded rationality of players is modelled using topological and directed information flow of the network. Based on the topologically distributed bounded rationality model, it is shown that the scale-free and small-world networks emerge in randomly connected populations of sub-optimal players. Thus, the topological and information theoretic interpretations of bounded rationality suggest the topology, information diffusion and the strategic interactions of socio-economical structures are cyclically interdependent