Anticipatory Mobile Computing: A Survey of the State of the Art and Research Challenges

Today's mobile phones are far from mere communication devices they were ten years ago. Equipped with sophisticated sensors and advanced computing hardware, phones can be used to infer users' location, activity, social setting and more. As devices become increasingly intelligent, their capabilities evolve beyond inferring context to predicting it, and then reasoning and acting upon the predicted context. This article provides an overview of the current state of the art in mobile sensing and context prediction paving the way for full-fledged anticipatory mobile computing. We present a survey of phenomena that mobile phones can infer and predict, and offer a description of machine learning techniques used for such predictions. We then discuss proactive decision making and decision delivery via the user-device feedback loop. Finally, we discuss the challenges and opportunities of anticipatory mobile computing.Comment: 29 pages, 5 figure

Temporal and Relational Models for Causality: Representation and Learning

Discovering causal dependence is central to understanding the behavior of complex systems and to selecting actions that will achieve particular outcomes. The majority of work in this area has focused on propositional domains, where data instances are assumed to be independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.). However, many real-world domains are inherently relational, i.e., they consist of multiple types of entities that interact with each other, and temporal, i.e., they change over time. This thesis focuses on causal modeling for these more complex relational and temporal domains. This thesis provides an in-depth investigation of the properties of relational models and is extending their expressivity to include a temporal dimension. Specifically, we first investigate alternative ways to ground relational models, and we provide an in-depth analysis of the impact of alternative grounding semantics for feature construction, causal effect estimation, and model selection. Then, we extend relational models to represent discrete time. We generalize the theory of d-separation for this class of temporal and relational models. Finally, we provide a constraint-based algorithm, TRCD, to learn the structure of temporal relational models from data

Active querying approach to epidemic source detection on contact networks.

The problem of identifying the source of an epidemic (also called patient zero) given a network of contacts and a set of infected individuals has attracted interest from a broad range of research communities. The successful and timely identification of the source can prevent a lot of harm as the number of possible infection routes can be narrowed down and potentially infected individuals can be isolated. Previous research on this topic often assumes that it is possible to observe the state of a substantial fraction of individuals in the network before attempting to identify the source. We, on the contrary, assume that observing the state of individuals in the network is costly or difficult and, hence, only the state of one or few individuals is initially observed. Moreover, we presume that not only the source is unknown, but also the duration for which the epidemic has evolved. From this more general problem setting a need to query the state of other (so far unobserved) individuals arises. In analogy with active learning, this leads us to formulate the active querying problem. In the active querying problem, we alternate between a source inference step and a querying step. For the source inference step, we rely on existing work but take a Bayesian perspective by putting a prior on the duration of the epidemic. In the querying step, we aim to query the states of individuals that provide the most information about the source of the epidemic, and to this end, we propose strategies inspired by the active learning literature. Our results are strongly in favor of a querying strategy that selects individuals for whom the disagreement between individual predictions, made by all possible sources separately, and a consensus prediction is maximal. Our approach is flexible and, in particular, can be applied to static as well as temporal networks. To demonstrate our approach's practical importance, we experiment with three empirical (temporal) contact networks: a network of pig movements, a network of sexual contacts, and a network of face-to-face contacts between residents of a village in Malawi. The results show that active querying strategies can lead to substantially improved source inference results as compared to baseline heuristics. In fact, querying only a small fraction of nodes in a network is often enough to achieve a source inference performance comparable to a situation where the infection states of all nodes are known

Real-Time Prediction of Gamers Behavior Using Variable Order Markov and Big Data Technology: A Case of Study

This paper presents the results and conclusions found when predicting the behavior of gamers in commercial videogames datasets. In particular, it uses Variable-Order Markov (VOM) to build a probabilistic model that is able to use the historic behavior of gamers and to infer what will be their next actions. Being able to predict with accuracy the next user’s actions can be of special interest to learn from the behavior of gamers, to make them more engaged and to reduce churn rate. In order to support a big volume and velocity of data, the system is built on top of the Hadoop ecosystem, using HBase for real-time processing; and the prediction tool is provided as a service (SaaS) and accessible through a RESTful API. The prediction system is evaluated using a case of study with two commercial videogames, attaining promising results with high prediction accuracies

Transforming Graph Representations for Statistical Relational Learning

Relational data representations have become an increasingly important topic due to the recent proliferation of network datasets (e.g., social, biological, information networks) and a corresponding increase in the application of statistical relational learning (SRL) algorithms to these domains. In this article, we examine a range of representation issues for graph-based relational data. Since the choice of relational data representation for the nodes, links, and features can dramatically affect the capabilities of SRL algorithms, we survey approaches and opportunities for relational representation transformation designed to improve the performance of these algorithms. This leads us to introduce an intuitive taxonomy for data representation transformations in relational domains that incorporates link transformation and node transformation as symmetric representation tasks. In particular, the transformation tasks for both nodes and links include (i) predicting their existence, (ii) predicting their label or type, (iii) estimating their weight or importance, and (iv) systematically constructing their relevant features. We motivate our taxonomy through detailed examples and use it to survey and compare competing approaches for each of these tasks. We also discuss general conditions for transforming links, nodes, and features. Finally, we highlight challenges that remain to be addressed