A Stochastic Complexity Perspective of Induction in Economics and Inference in Dynamics

Rissanen's fertile and pioneering minimum description length principle (MDL) has been viewed from the point of view of statistical estimation theory, information theory, as stochastic complexity theory -.i.e., a computable approximation to Kolomogorov Complexity - or Solomonoff's recursion theoretic induction principle or as analogous to Kolmogorov's sufficient statistics. All these - and many more - interpretations are valid, interesting and fertile. In this paper I view it from two points of view: those of an algorithmic economist and a dynamical system theorist. >From these points of view I suggest, first, a recasting of Jevons's sceptical vision of induction in the light of MDL; and a complexity interpretation of an undecidable question in dynamics.

Certifying planning systems : witnesses for unsolvability

Classical planning tackles the problem of finding a sequence of actions that leads from an initial state to a goal. Over the last decades, planning systems have become significantly better at answering the question whether such a sequence exists by applying a variety of techniques which have become more and more complex. As a result, it has become nearly impossible to formally analyze whether a planning system is actually correct in its answers, and we need to rely on experimental evidence. One way to increase trust is the concept of certifying algorithms, which provide a witness which justifies their answer and can be verified independently. When a planning system finds a solution to a problem, the solution itself is a witness, and we can verify it by simply applying it. But what if the planning system claims the task is unsolvable? So far there was no principled way of verifying this claim. This thesis contributes two approaches to create witnesses for unsolvable planning tasks. Inductive certificates are based on the idea of invariants. They argue that the initial state is part of a set of states that we cannot leave and that contains no goal state. In our second approach, we define a proof system that proves in an incremental fashion that certain states cannot be part of a solution until it has proven that either the initial state or all goal states are such states. Both approaches are complete in the sense that a witness exists for every unsolvable planning task, and can be verified efficiently (in respect to the size of the witness) by an independent verifier if certain criteria are met. To show their applicability to state-of-the-art planning techniques, we provide an extensive overview how these approaches can cover several search algorithms, heuristics and other techniques. Finally, we show with an experimental study that generating and verifying these explanations is not only theoretically possible but also practically feasible, thus making a first step towards fully certifying planning systems

Zeno machines and hypercomputation

This paper reviews the Church-Turing Thesis (or rather, theses) with reference to their origin and application and considers some models of "hypercomputation", concentrating on perhaps the most straight-forward option: Zeno machines (Turing machines with accelerating clock). The halting problem is briefly discussed in a general context and the suggestion that it is an inevitable companion of any reasonable computational model is emphasised. It is hinted that claims to have "broken the Turing barrier" could be toned down and that the important and well-founded role of Turing computability in the mathematical sciences stands unchallenged.Comment: 11 pages. First submitted in December 2004, substantially revised in July and in November 2005. To appear in Theoretical Computer Scienc

Certified Unsolvability for SAT Planning with Property Directed Reachability

While classical planning systems can usually detect if a task is unsolvable, only recent research introduced a way to verify such a claim. These methods have already been applied to a variety of explicit and symbolic search algorithms, but so far no planning technique based on SAT has been covered with them. We fill this gap by showing how property directed reachability can produce proofs while only minimally altering the framework by allowing to utilize certificates for unsolvable SAT queries within the proof. We additionally show that a variant of the algorithm that does not use SAT calls can produce proofs that fit into the existing framework without requiring any changes

Algorithmic Randomness as Foundation of Inductive Reasoning and Artificial Intelligence

This article is a brief personal account of the past, present, and future of algorithmic randomness, emphasizing its role in inductive inference and artificial intelligence. It is written for a general audience interested in science and philosophy. Intuitively, randomness is a lack of order or predictability. If randomness is the opposite of determinism, then algorithmic randomness is the opposite of computability. Besides many other things, these concepts have been used to quantify Ockham's razor, solve the induction problem, and define intelligence.Comment: 9 LaTeX page