Motion as manipulation: Implementation of motion and force analogies by event-file binding and action planning\ud

Tool improvisation analogies are a special case of motion and force analogies that appear to be implemented pre-conceptually, in many species, by event-file binding and action planning. A detailed reconstruction of the analogical reasoning steps involved in Rutherford's and Bohr's development of the first quantized-orbit model of atomic structure is used to show that human motion and force analogies generally can be implemented by the event-file binding and action planning mechanism. Predictions that distinguish this model from competing concept-level models of analogy are discussed, available data pertaining to them are reviewed, and further experimental tests are proposed

Toward an expert project management system

The purpose of the research effort is to prescribe a generic reusable shell that any project office can install and customize for the purposes of advising, guiding, and supporting project managers in that office. The prescribed shell is intended to provide both: a component that generates prescriptive guidance for project planning and monitoring activities, and an analogy (intuition) component that generates descriptive insights of previous experience of successful project managers. The latter component is especially significant in that it has the potential to: retrieve insights, not just data, and provide a vehicle for expert PMs to easily transcribe their current experiences in the course of each new project managed

Application of expert systems in project management decision aiding

The feasibility of developing an expert systems-based project management decision aid to enhance the performance of NASA project managers was assessed. The research effort included extensive literature reviews in the areas of project management, project management decision aiding, expert systems technology, and human-computer interface engineering. Literature reviews were augmented by focused interviews with NASA managers. Time estimation for project scheduling was identified as the target activity for decision augmentation, and a design was developed for an Integrated NASA System for Intelligent Time Estimation (INSITE). The proposed INSITE design was judged feasible with a low level of risk. A partial proof-of-concept experiment was performed and was successful. Specific conclusions drawn from the research and analyses are included. The INSITE concept is potentially applicable in any management sphere, commercial or government, where time estimation is required for project scheduling. As project scheduling is a nearly universal management activity, the range of possibilities is considerable. The INSITE concept also holds potential for enhancing other management tasks, especially in areas such as cost estimation, where estimation-by-analogy is already a proven method

The challenge of complexity for cognitive systems

Complex cognition addresses research on (a) high-level cognitive processes – mainly problem solving, reasoning, and decision making – and their interaction with more basic processes such as perception, learning, motivation and emotion and (b) cognitive processes which take place in a complex, typically dynamic, environment. Our focus is on AI systems and cognitive models dealing with complexity and on psychological findings which can inspire or challenge cognitive systems research. In this overview we first motivate why we have to go beyond models for rather simple cognitive processes and reductionist experiments. Afterwards, we give a characterization of complexity from our perspective. We introduce the triad of cognitive science methods – analytical, empirical, and engineering methods – which in our opinion have all to be utilized to tackle complex cognition. Afterwards we highlight three aspects of complex cognition – complex problem solving, dynamic decision making, and learning of concepts, skills and strategies. We conclude with some reflections about and challenges for future research

Applying the proto-theory of design to explain and modify the parameter analysis method of conceptual design

This article reports on the outcomes of applying the notions provided by the reconstructed proto-theory of design, based on Aristotle’s remarks, to the parameter analysis (PA) method of conceptual design. Two research questions are addressed: (1) What further clarification and explanation to the approach of PA is provided by the proto-theory? (2) Which conclusions can be drawn from the study of an empirically derived design approach through the proto-theory regarding usefulness, validity and range of that theory? An overview of PA and an application example illustrate its present model and unique characteristics. Then, seven features of the proto-theory are explained and demonstrated through geometrical problem solving and analogies are drawn between these features and the corresponding ideas in modern design thinking. Historical and current uses of the terms analysis and synthesis in design are also outlined and contrasted, showing that caution should be exercised when applying them. Consequences regarding the design moves, process and strategy of PA allow proposing modifications to its model, while demonstrating how the ancient method of analysis can contribute to better understanding of contemporary design-theoretic issues

CASE-BASED REASONING IN SOFrWARE EFFORT ESTIMATION

A case-based analogical reasoning model, called Estor, was proposed and elaborated from verbal protocols gathered in a prior study. Estor incorporates five analogical problem solving processes: problem representation analog retrieval, solution transfer, attribute mapping, and no-correspondence adjustment. These five generic processes were supplemented with the domain-specific knowledge of the referent expert. The resulting system was then presented with fifteen software effort estimation tasks, ten of which were among those solved by the referent expert, plus five new tasks. For comparison, the expert was asked to estimate the five new tasks as well. The estimates of Estor were then compared to those of the expert as well as those of the Function Point and COCOMO estimations of the projects. Significant between-estimator differences were found, with the human expert and Estor dominating the effects. Correlations between the actual effort values and the estimates of the expert and Estor for all fifteen projects were .98 and .97 respectively. Furthermore, these coefficients differed significantly from those of COCOMO and Function Points. Differences between the model and the referent expert are discussed

The 1990 progress report and future plans

This document describes the progress and plans of the Artificial Intelligence Research Branch (RIA) at ARC in 1990. Activities span a range from basic scientific research to engineering development and to fielded NASA applications, particularly those applications that are enabled by basic research carried out at RIA. Work is conducted in-house and through collaborative partners in academia and industry. Our major focus is on a limited number of research themes with a dual commitment to technical excellence and proven applicability to NASA short, medium, and long-term problems. RIA acts as the Agency's lead organization for research aspects of artificial intelligence, working closely with a second research laboratory at JPL and AI applications groups at all NASA centers

Marketing Management Support Systems and Their Implications for Marketing Research

Marketing decision makers are responsible for the design and execution of marketing programs for products or brands. They operate under different names, such as product manager, brand manager, marketing manager, marketing director, or commercial director. They choose the target markets and segments for their products and services and develop and implement marketing mixes. Because of the proliferation of products and brands, the fragmentation of markets in an ever growing number of different segments, the fierceness of competition, and the overall acceleration of change, marketing decisions are becoming increasingly complex. Furthermore, decisions have to be made under increasing time pressure. Product life cycles are getting shorter, and competition occurs not only within countries but also increasingly at an international and even global level. New markets are rapidly opening up, existing markets are being deregulated, and new distribution channels such as the Internet have developed. The question now is, how can these decision makers be supported to become more effective