Impacts of new energy technology using generalized input-output analysis

Also issued as a Ph.D. thesis in the Dept. of Electrical Engineering, 1973Traditional input-output analysis was modified to include air pollution emissions, employment, and other accessory variables. Engineering studies of high and low DTU coal gasification and the gas turbine topping cycle were then utilized to incorporate these new technologies into the 1980 input-output table that was projected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. These two techniques are shown to be able to correct many previous objections to input-output analysis and to have applicability to a wide variety of practical problems. A series of 1985 projections featuring high, medium and low growth of energy consumption (both with and without the new technologies) were also made. Economic and environmental impacts were then calculated for these alternative futures. The major conclusions are: 1. Total investment in general and capital good industries in particular (primarily turbogenerator manufacturers, boiler makers, and construction equipment manufacturers) are quite sensitive to energy use growth rates (especially electricity). 2. Introduction of high tu coal gasification will aggravate the demand for investment funds and introduction of the second generation gas turbine topping cycle (with or without low Btu coal qasification) will decrease the demand. These technologies will have their major impacts on the industries listed above. 3. Sliaht changes in the overall growth rates of total personal consumption expenditures and government spending result in large fluctuations in total investment. 4. If high energy qrowth continues and if investment is to remain within its historical limits as a per centage of GNP, energy investment will become a laraer and larqer part of total investment. 5. While interest rates are assumed to be the balancino mechanism between supply of and demand for investment funds, the very act of saving more money (which is induced by hiqher interest rates) means that less can be spend on consumption goods. This in turn lessens the demand for investment funds because the qrowth rates of consumption sectors are lovwer. This indirect effect of interest rates on investment has been little studied but may be quite important. The policy implications of these results are also discussed

Energy: A continuing bibliography with indexes, February 1975

Reports, articles, and other documents introduced into the NASA scientific and technical information system from July 1, 1974 through September 30, 1974 are cited. Regional, national, and international energy systems; research and development on fuels and other sources of energy; energy conversion, transport, transmission, distribution, and storage, with emphasis on the use of hydrogen and solar energy are included along with methods of locating or using new energy resources. Emphasis is placed on energy for heating, lighting, and powering aircraft, surface vehicles, or other machinery

Energy: A continuing bibliography with indexes

This bibliography lists 335 reports, articles, and other documents introduced into the NASA scientific and technical information system from October 1, 1974 through December 31, 1974

Data Frameworks in Monetary, Physical and Time Units for Quantitative Sustainable Consumption Research

The overriding aim of this thesis is to establish how integrated input-output data frameworks in monetary, physical and time units can contribute to a be~ter understanding of the environmental pressures generated by a given final demand including the underlying economic, social and demographic driving forces. The thesis mainly focuses on environmental' input-output analysis and related methods and evaluates the· opportunities provided by recent data developments at the Federal Statistical Office. In particular, physical input-output tables and social accounting extensions published as part . of the 'socio-economic reporting system' are used for improving the specification and conceptualisation of production technology and lifestyles. The first part of the thesis contributes to the recent discussion on monetary and . physical input-output analysis. In particular, it looks at how· the representation of production technology can be improved through the availability of information from physical input~output tables (PlOT) to allow for a more robust allocation of environmental pressures to final consumption/demand. The conceptual discussion ,- highlights a whole range of misperceptions in the debate associated with the' construction of the German PlOT and highlights the shared conceptual basis between monetary inputoutput tables (MIOT) and PlOTs to the extent to which product flows are concerned. However, a detailed empirical comparison of production structures iIi monetary and physical units using the graph theoretical toolkit provided by qualitative input-output . analysis ~ighlights fundamental differences in their representation of technologies due to the particular scope of monetary and physical measurement: 45% of all intermediate product flows in MIOT and PlOT are fundamentally different in that they have a positive record in one table and a zero record in the other. As expected, most of these are 'weightless' immaterial service flows. However, the thesis highlights that such fundamental differences in the production structures associated with intermediate service flows are not only relevant in tertiary sectors, but are prominent throughout the economy: in fact, for some manufacturing sectors of capital goods with a high service component immaterial service flows can make up to 90% of all intermediate' outputs, highlighting the importance of an endogenisation of capital investment for an adequate attribution of environmental pressures to final demands. Remaining differences are explained by unpriced, material flows in environmental service sectors (recycling, waste treatment), where PlOTs provide a more comprehensive coverage. The first part of this thesis concludes by highlighting that production technology in environmental input-output models will usmilly be most appropriately specified in hybrid units. An outline of some of the main avenues for future research is provided. The second part of the thesis uses detailed SAM-type extensions to better understand the environmental pressures associated with lifestyles in their socio-. demographic context. Initially, an expenditure based lifestyle definition is deployed. to. analyse the social and demographic driving forces behind changes in GHG emissions associated with consumption patterns of 45 lifestyle groups in Germany between 1990 and 2002. A structural decomposition analysis confirms previous studies in that most technologically induced reductions in GHG emissions have been 'eaten-up' by additional emissiotls from growth in final consumption. However, results highlight that important· demographic trends are at work at the same time counteracting GHG emission savings. These pressures need to be considered in climate change policy formation, if climate change targets are to be delivered, Results from the environmental input-output model are further analysed using a panel regression approach in order to highlight the influence of individual social, economic and demographic detetminants of GHG emissions. The time-specific effects capture the slowing progress in GHG emission reductions after the re-unification in Germany. Group specific effects highlight the dominance of household size and the be10ngingness to a particular social group for differences in GHG emissions from consUmption patterns of different lifestyle groups. The analysis is concluded by highlighting the importance of adding social and . demographic information into standard environmental input-output frameworks to better understand global environmen~al pressures generated by the consumption patterns of different lifestyle groups. However, the top-down classification of lifestyles as commonly applied in national accounting based on only a few socio-demographic descriptors such as income, occupancy and household size is seen to limit the analysis. Of at least equal importance with people's social and demographic characteristics are the local conditions within which they are acting: general neighbourhood characteristics, the accessibility of private and public services and building properties (size, type, age, insulation etc.). Geodemographic lifestyle classifications, as commonly applied by marketing practitioners, are proposed as a spatially-specific alternative raising hopes to overcome the 'one size fits all'-type policy recommendations which are commonly derived from environmental input-output models. Finally, the commonly applied expenditure based lifestyle definition is fundamentally challenged. It is argued that a lifestyle definition should be based on what' people do rather than on what they spend. Following the economic household production function literature, this activity focus in the empirical description of lifestyles can be achieved through the introduction of time-use ~ata. The usefulness of the approach is. 'demonstrated in an empirical example using data from the input-output tables in time units provided by the Federal Statistical Office of Gennany. In the Appendix of this thesis, an initial analysis of the social' and economic determinants of CO2 emissions based on geo-demographic lifestyle data is provided. Furthennore, different ways of dealing with environmental pressures from imported products based on single region and multi-regional input-output models are discussed and a methodology for estimating Ecological Footprints based on input-output analysis is proposed

Cogeneration in the U.S. : an economic and technical analysis

Originally presented as the author's thesis, (M.S.) in the M.I.T. Dept. of Civil Engineering, 1978.Traditionally, only space heating and transportation have consumed more fuel than industrial process steam generation. Several recent studies have examined electricity and industrial steam supply and have recommended vigorous federal efforts to increase the cogeneration, or joint production, of electricity and process steam. The conceptual approach and analytic methods employed in these studies contain flaws that make them incomplete. The studies' recommendations are premised upon the existence of distortions in the markets surrounding cogeneration, but they offer only anecdotal evidence of such market failures. They propose increased cogeneration, citing aggregate energy savings for a single year and cumulative capital savings, but the analytic techniques they use in simulating market behavior and evaluating the desirability of various levels of cogeneration lack needed sophistication. This research addresses several of the methodological objections to the earlier studies. To unite this effort, the report poses two focal questions on cogeneration policy and economics: * Can the historical decline in cogeneration's importance be explained by changes in fuel prices and technologies alone? * What is the best future role for cogeneration if the choice is based on economic efficiency? First, the markets associated with cogeneration are examined from a qualitative perspective, employing the classic basic conditions/market structure/conduct/performance approach of industrial economics to explore the potential for inefficient market performance. Engineering production and cost functions are developed for a simple cogeneration plant design, offering insights into the economies of scale and joint production problems involved in the choice between cogeneration and separated production alternatives. Second, a multi-period linear programming model, called the Joint Generation Supply Model or JGSM, is form- ulated to simulate competitive market behavior in the aggregate U,S. electricity and process steam supply markets throughout a given time interval. JGSM is used to study the historical performance of these markets for 1960 to 1972 and the future role o cogeneration for 1975 to 2000, Appendices survey cogeneration technologies and the issues in integrating cogeneration plants into the utility system. The modeling of the historical question shows the decline can be explained by changes in cost conditions, but these results are very sensitive to the engineering cost assumptions. Analysis of cogeneration's future role indicates cogeneration should increase from its 4.5% share of electricity supply in 1975 to 9% in 1985; it should also serve more than half the process steam supply. If cogeneration remains at its 1975 share through 2000, the additional costs imposed are worth about $10 billion in discounted capital and operating expenses. Too much cogeneration can hurt as much as too little: forcing it up to a 20to another issue, JGSM calculated that failure to develop low-Btu coalgasifying combined cycle power technologies results in losses worth$4 billion.Research supported in part by the National Science Foundation and the U.S. Dept. of Energy