The capital budgeting process and the energy trilemma - a strategic conduct analysis

This paper examines capital budgeting and its role in the ‘energy trilemma’. The key focus is on the role of knowledgeable agency in the analysis of strategic conduct. In particular, this study demonstrates how accounting tools can be used by executive managers, who, whilst dominant in their own organisations, are themselves subordinate to the government in the United Kingdom and at the European level. The strategic conduct of actors is examined in a narrative, theorised case study setting spanning an 11-year period from 2006 to 2017. The principal contribution to knowledge from this study is the extent to which strategic investment accounting has played a role in changing regulatory and government policy in a privatised industry. The government and regulators, were forced to take the generators’ concerns seriously, because the generators (based on knowledge derived from capital budgets) restricted their capital expenditure rather than mobilising their resources. The generators highlighted that not only was this a problem of environmental sustainability and price for consumers, but also one of long-term supply; arguing that the government had to address all aspects of the trilemma when creating policy

Equilíbrio da expansão de capacidade sob incerteza : um estudo de caso na indústria petroquímica brasileira

A Teoria dos Jogos é amplamente utilizada no estudo de fenômenos de interação estratégica, em especial na análise de mercados de commodities. Esse trabalho faz uma análise preliminar do mercado brasileiro de eteno e propeno sob a ótica de um modelo baseado na Teoria dos Jogos, representado matematicamente através de um problema de complementaridade mista. Neste modelo, as empresas atuam em uma competição de Cournot e os custos de produção são parâmetros incertos, representados através de cenários, sendo que, no equilíbrio, três decisões devem ser tomadas: i) o portifólio de tecnologias para produção, ii) a capacidade de produção de cada tecnologia e iii) o nível de produção de cada tecnologia em cada cenário. Considerando as diversas limitações do estudo, as simulações realizadas com o modelo proposto mostram que o comportamento dos agentes da indústria petroquímica brasileira está mais próximo de tomadores de preços, sem possibilidade de regulação de preços através das quantidades produzidas.Game Theory is widely used in the study of strategic interaction, especially in the analysis of commodity markets. This work makes a preliminary analysis of the Brazilian ethylene and propylene market from the perspective of a model based on game theory, represented mathematically by a mixed complementarity problem. In this model, firms behave as Cournot players and production costs are uncertain parameters, represented by scenarios, and in equilibrium three decisions must be made: i) the portfolio of technologies for production, ii) technologies capacity and iii) the level of production for each technology in each scenario. Considering the limitations of the study, the simulations carried out with the proposed model show that the behavior of the Brazilian petrochemical industry agents is closer to price takers, without possibility of price regulation by the quantities produced

Évaluation environnementale des conséquences de la décarbonisation des services énergétiques

Abstract: The services provided by energy commodities are essential for human wellbeing but the reliance on fossil-fuels is jeopardising the livelihood of future generations and ecosystems, through global warming and other cause-effect pathways. There is an urgent need to transform the energy system, but this transformation may create unforeseen problems if not planned comprehensively. Many energy transitions plans rely on energy system optimisation models (ESOM), but these models are ill-prepared to evaluate the range of environmental stressors and their effects, and have oversimplified representations of production systems. An integrative approach combining ESOMs with life cycle assessment (LCA) can overcome the limitations of ESOMs, helping to avoid the ‘backfire’ of mitigation policies. This thesis gives an overview of the limitations of existing approaches linking ESOMs and LCA and implements a novel approach to overcome them. Several questions related to the energy transition in the province of Quebec (Canada) are assessed with the North American TIMES Energy Model (NATEM). The main scenario investigated, modelling the consequences of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation targets, is assessed from a life cycle perspective. To link both the optimization and the LCA models, a set of functions and procedures are encoded in an open-source software, that can be reused in other assessments. Results show that just a relatively narrow number of processes drive the changes in GHG, and this feature can be used to simplify the linking between TIMES and LCA models. The integrated ESOM-LCA assessment applied to Quebec indicates that global warming (GW) mitigation policies would reduce impacts on human health and biodiversity. This reduced impact is driven by reduced climate change but also other cause-effect mechanisms such as reduced water scarcity and metal contamination. Additionally, full-year building simulations of Quebec detached houses introduced as new technological options in NATEM suggest that better insulated buildings would reduce the total costs of GW mitigation. The introduction of low-carbon technologies could raise the costs of energy services by 20% but these costs could be substantially lowered with demand-side measures. ESOMs provide an interesting but limited perspective to plan energy transitions. The softlink of ESOMs with LCA is a viable approach to give a more comprehensive view of relative importance of cause-effect pathways affecting human health and biodiversity. The integrated assessment is a powerful tool to analyse a wide range of issues related to the needed energy transitions. Understanding the underlying assumptions and principles of models is also important to interpret and design assessments. To facilitate this kind of analysis, researchers should facilitate the reusability of their works, agreeing on output formats, documenting the code underlying the analyses, and providing tools to integrate models. To this end, scriptable open-source software tools are extremely useful. This thesis attempts to put a step forward in this direction.Les services énergétiques sont essentiels au bien-être humain, mais l’utilisation de combustibles fossiles pour répondre à la demande énergétique compromet les moyens de subsistance des générations futures et des écosystèmes, par le réchauffement climatique et d’autres menaces. Il est donc urgent de transformer le système énergétique existant. Cependant, cette transformation peut créer des problèmes imprévus si elle n’est pas planifiée de manière cohérente et complète. Plusieurs plans de transition énergétique reposent sur des modèles d'optimisation des systèmes énergétiques (MOSE), mais ces modèles sont peu adaptés pour évaluer les facteurs de stress environnementaux et leurs effets, et ils adoptent des représentations trop simplistes des systèmes de production. L’hypothèse de base de cette thèse est qu’une approche combinant les MOSE et l’analyse du cycle de vie (ACV) peut permettre de surmonter les limites des MOSE, en aidant à éviter des imprévus dans les politiques de réduction de gaz à effet de serre. Cette thèse donne un aperçu des limites des approches existantes reliant MOSE et ACV et met en oeuvre une méthodologie possible pour les surmonter. Plusieurs questions liées à la transition énergétique au Québec sont évaluées à l'aide d’un modèle TIMES (NATEM) pour la province de Québec. Le scénario de modélisation des conséquences des objectifs de réduction des gaz à effet de serre (GES) est ensuite évalué selon une perspective de cycle de vie. Pour relier les deux modèles, un ensemble de fonctions et de procédures est codé dans un langage open source (Python), qui peut être réutilisé dans d'autres évaluations. Les résultats montrent que seul un nombre relativement restreint de processus est à l'origine des changements dans la quantité de GES. Cette observation est utilisée pour simplifier la liaison entre les modèles TIMES et ACV. L'évaluation intégrée MOSE-ACV appliquée au Québec indique que les politiques de réduction de GES peuvent réduire les impacts sur la santé humaine et la biodiversité. Cette réduction d’impacts est due à la mitigation du changement climatique, mais également à d'autres mécanismes de cause à effet tels que la réduction de la pénurie d'eau et de la contamination par les métaux. De plus, la liaison des MOSE avec des modèles de simulation énergétique de bâtiments suggère que des bâtiments mieux isolés réduiraient les coûts totaux de réduction de GES. L'introduction de technologies à faibles émissions de carbone pourrait augmenter les coûts des services énergétiques de 20%, mais ces coûts pourraient être considérablement réduits grâce à des mesures axées sur la demande énergétique. Les MOSE offrent une perspective intéressante, mais limitée, pour planifier les transitions énergétiques. La liaison des MOSE avec ACV est une approche viable pour donner une vue plus complète de l’importance relative des mécanismes qui affectent la santé humaine et la biodiversité. L'évaluation intégrée est un outil puissant pour analyser une large gamme de problèmes liés aux transitions énergétiques. Comprendre les hypothèses et principes sous-jacents des modèles est également important pour interpréter les résultats. Pour faciliter ce type d'analyse, les chercheurs doivent faciliter la réutilisation de leurs travaux, en convenant des formats de sortie, en documentant le code sous-jacent aux analyses et en fournissant des outils pour intégrer les modèles. À cette fin, les outils open-source scriptables sont extrêmement utiles. Cette thèse tente de faire un pas en avant dans cette direction