On the Higgs cross section at N3^3LO+N3^3LL and its uncertainty

We consider the inclusive production of a Higgs boson in gluon-fusion and we study the impact of threshold resummation at next-to-next-to-next-to-leading logarithmic accuracy (N$^3$LL) on the recently computed fixed-order prediction at next-to-next-to-next-to-leading order (N$^3$LO). We propose a conservative, yet robust way of estimating the perturbative uncertainty from missing higher (fixed- or logarithmic-) orders. We compare our results with two other different methods of estimating the uncertainty from missing higher orders: the Cacciari-Houdeau Bayesian approach to theory errors, and the use of algorithms to accelerate the convergence of the perturbative series. We confirm that the best convergence happens at $\mu_R=\mu_F=m_H\,/\,2$, and we conclude that a reliable estimate of the uncertainty from missing higher orders on the Higgs cross section at 13 TeV is approximately $\pm4$%.Comment: 27 pages, 6 figures. Version to be published in JHE

Strange Quark PDFs and Implications for Drell-Yan Boson Production at the LHC

Global analyses of Parton Distribution Functions (PDFs) have provided incisive constraints on the up and down quark components of the proton, but constraining the other flavor degrees of freedom is more challenging. Higher-order theory predictions and new data sets have contributed to recent improvements. Despite these efforts, the strange quark PDF has a sizable uncertainty, particularly in the small x region. We examine the constraints from experiment and theory, and investigate the impact of this uncertainty on LHC observables. In particular, we study W/Z production to see how the s-quark uncertainty propagates to these observables, and examine the extent to which precise measurements at the LHC can provide additional information on the proton flavor structure.Comment: 14 pages, 11 figures, added reference

Precise Prediction for M_W in the MSSM

We present the currently most accurate evaluation of the W boson mass, M_W, in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM). The full complex phase dependence at the one-loop level, all available MSSM two-loop corrections as well as the full Standard Model result have been included. We analyse the impact of the different sectors of the MSSM at the one-loop level with a particular emphasis on the effect of the complex phases. We discuss the prediction for M_W based on all known higher-order contributions in representative MSSM scenarios. Furthermore we obtain an estimate of the remaining theoretical uncertainty from unknown higher-order corrections.Comment: 38 pages, 25 figures. Minor corrections, additional reference

Supersymmetric top and bottom squark production at hadron colliders

The scalar partners of top and bottom quarks are expected to be the lightest squarks in supersymmetric theories, with potentially large cross sections at hadron colliders. We present predictions for the production of top and bottom squarks at the Tevatron and the LHC, including next-to-leading order corrections in supersymmetric QCD and the resummation of soft gluon emission at next-to-leading-logarithmic accuracy. We discuss the impact of the higher-order corrections on total cross sections and transverse-momentum distributions, and provide an estimate of the theoretical uncertainty due to scale variation and the parton distribution functions.Comment: 29 pages, 6 figure

How useful are historical data for forecasting the long-run equity return distribution?

We provide an approach to forecasting the long-run (unconditional) distribution of equity returns making optimal use of historical data in the presence of structural breaks. Our focus is on learning about breaks in real time and assessing their impact on out-of-sample density forecasts. Forecasts use a probability-weighted average of submodels, each of which is estimated over a different history of data. The paper illustrates the importance of uncertainty about structural breaks and the value of modeling higher-order moments of excess returns when forecasting the return distribution and its moments. The shape of the long-run distribution and the dynamics of the higher-order moments are quite different from those generated by forecasts which cannot capture structural breaks. The empirical results strongly reject ignoring structural change in favor of our forecasts which weight historical data to accommodate uncertainty about structural breaks. We also strongly reject the common practice of using a fixed-length moving window. These differences in long-run forecasts have implications for many financial decisions, particularly for risk management and long-run investment decisions.density forecasts, structural change, model risk, parameter uncertainty, Bayesian learning, market returns

How useful are historical data for forecasting the long-run equity return distribution?

We provide an approach to forecasting the long-run (unconditional) distribution of equity returns making optimal use of historical data in the presence of structural breaks. Our focus is on learning about breaks in real time and assessing their impact on out-of-sample density forecasts. Forecasts use a probability-weighted average of submodels, each of which is estimated over a different historyof data. The paper illustrates the importance of uncertainty about structural breaks and the value of modeling higher-order moments of excess returns when forecasting the return distribution and its moments. The shape of the long-run distribution and the dynamics of the higher-order moments are quite different from those generated by forecasts which cannot capture structural breaks. The empirical results strongly reject ignoring structural change in favor of our forecasts which weight historical data to accommodate uncertainty about structural breaks. We also strongly reject the common practice of using a fixed-length moving window. These differences in long-run forecasts have implications for many financial decisions, particularly for risk management and long-run investment decisions.density forecasts, structural change, model risk, parameter uncertainty, Bayesian learning, market returns

Higher-order QED corrections to W-boson mass determination at hadron colliders

The impact of higher-order final-state photonic corrections on the precise determination of the W-boson mass at the Tevatron and LHC colliders is evaluated. In the presence of realistic selection criteria, the shift in the W mass from a fit to the transverse mass distribution is found to be about 10 MeV in the $W \to \mu \nu$ channel and almost negligible in the $W \to e \nu$ channel. The calculation, which is implemented in a Monte Carlo event generator for data analysis, can contribute to reduce the uncertainty associated to the W mass measurement at future hadron collider experiments.Comment: 9 pages, 2 figures, 1 table, RevTe

Permanent trading impacts and bond yields

We analyze four years of transaction data for euro-area sovereign bonds traded on the MTS electronic platforms. In order to measure the informational content of trading activity, we estimate the permanent price response to trades. We find not only strong evidence of information asymmetry in sovereign bond markets, but we also show the relevance of information asymmetry in explaining the cross-sectional variations of bond yields across a wide range of bond maturities and countries. Our results confirm that trades of more recently issued bonds and longer maturity bonds have a greater permanent effect on prices. We compare the price impact of trades for bonds across different maturity categories and find that trades of French and German bonds have the highest long-term price impact in the short maturity class whereas trades of German bonds have the highest permanent price impacts in the long maturity class. More importantly, we study the cross-section of bond yields and find that after controlling for conventional factors, investors demand higher yields for bonds with larger permanent trading impact. Interestingly, when investors face increased market uncertainty, they require even higher compensation for information asymmetry

On the Higgs cross section at N3LO+N3LL and its uncertainty

open4noWe consider the inclusive production of a Higgs boson in gluon-fusion and we study the impact of threshold resummation at next-to-next-to-next-to-leading logarithmic accuracy (N3LL) on the recently computed fixed-order prediction at next-to-next-to-next-to-leading order (N3LO). We propose a conservative, yet robust way of estimating the perturbative uncertainty from missing higher (fixed- or logarithmic-) orders. We compare our results with two other different methods of estimating the uncertainty from missing higher orders: the Cacciari-Houdeau Bayesian approach to theory errors, and the use of algorithms to accelerate the convergence of the perturbative series, as suggested by David and Passarino. We confirm that the best convergence happens at μR = μF = mH/2, and we conclude that a reliable estimate of the uncertainty from missing higher orders on the Higgs cross section at 13 TeV is approximately ±4%.openMarco Bonvini; Marzani S; Claudio Muselli; Luca RottoliMarco, Bonvini; Marzani, Simone; Claudio, Muselli; Luca, Rottol