Identification of Linear State-Space Models Subject to Truncated Gaussian Disturbances

Within Bayesian state estimation, an important effort has been put to incorporate constraints into state estimation for process optimization, state monitoring, fault detection and control. Nonetheless, in the domain of state-space system identification, the prevalent practice entails constructing models under Gaussian noise assumptions, which suffer from inaccuracies when the noise follows bounded distributions. This poster introduces a novel data-driven method rooted in maximum likelihood principles, aimed at identifying linear state-space models subject to truncated Gaussian noise. This approach enables the concurrent estimation of model parameters, noise statistics, and noise truncation bounds, by solving a series of quadratic programs and nonlinear sets of equations

Gaussian processes for state space models and change point detection

This thesis details several applications of Gaussian processes (GPs) for enhanced time series modeling. We first cover different approaches for using Gaussian processes in time series problems. These are extended to the state space approach to time series in two different problems. We also combine Gaussian processes and Bayesian online change point detection (BOCPD) to increase the generality of the Gaussian process time series methods. These methodologies are evaluated on predictive performance on six real world data sets, which include three environmental data sets, one financial, one biological, and one from industrial well drilling. Gaussian processes are capable of generalizing standard linear time series models. We cover two approaches: the Gaussian process time series model (GPTS) and the autoregressive Gaussian process (ARGP). We cover a variety of methods that greatly reduce the computational and memory complexity of Gaussian process approaches, which are generally cubic in computational complexity. Two different improvements to state space based approaches are covered. First, Gaussian process inference and learning (GPIL) generalizes linear dynamical systems (LDS), for which the Kalman filter is based, to general nonlinear systems for nonparametric system identification. Second, we address pathologies in the unscented Kalman filter (UKF). We use Gaussian process optimization (GPO) to learn UKF settings that minimize the potential for sigma point collapse. We show how to embed mentioned Gaussian process approaches to time series into a change point framework. Old data, from an old regime, that hinders predictive performance is automatically and elegantly phased out. The computational improvements for Gaussian process time series approaches are of even greater use in the change point framework. We also present a supervised framework learning a change point model when change point labels are available in training.I would like to thank Rockwell Collins, formerly DataPath, Inc., which funded my studentship

Towards Bayesian System Identification: With Application to SHM of Offshore Structures

Within the offshore industry Structural Health Monitoring remains a growing area of interest. The oil and gas sectors are faced with ageing infrastructure and are driven by the desire for reliable lifetime extension, whereas the wind energy sector is investing heavily in a large number of structures. This leads to a number of distinct challenges for Structural Health Monitoring which are brought together by one unifying theme --- uncertainty. The offshore environment is highly uncertain, existing structures have not been monitored from construction and the loading and operational conditions they have experienced (among other factors) are not known. For the wind energy sector, high numbers of structures make traditional inspection methods costly and in some cases dangerous due to the inaccessibility of many wind farms. Structural Health Monitoring attempts to address these issues by providing tools to allow automated online assessment of the condition of structures to aid decision making. The work of this thesis presents a number of Bayesian methods which allow system identification, for Structural Health Monitoring, under uncertainty. The Bayesian approach explicitly incorporates prior knowledge that is available and combines this with evidence from observed data to allow the formation of updated beliefs. This is a natural way to approach Structural Health Monitoring, or indeed, many engineering problems. It is reasonable to assume that there is some knowledge available to the engineer before attempting to detect, locate, classify, or model damage on a structure. Having a framework where this knowledge can be exploited, and the uncertainty in that knowledge can be handled rigorously, is a powerful methodology. The problem being that the actual computation of Bayesian results can pose a significant challenge both computationally and in terms of specifying appropriate models. This thesis aims to present a number of Bayesian tools, each of which leverages the power of the Bayesian paradigm to address a different Structural Health Monitoring challenge. Within this work the use of Gaussian Process models is presented as a flexible nonparametric Bayesian approach to regression, which is extended to handle dynamic models within the Gaussian Process NARX framework. The challenge in training Gaussian Process models is seldom discussed and the work shown here aims to offer a quantitative assessment of different learning techniques including discussions on the choice of cost function for optimisation of hyperparameters and the choice of the optimisation algorithm itself. Although rarely considered, the effects of these choices are demonstrated to be important and to inform the use of a Gaussian Process NARX model for wave load identification on offshore structures. The work is not restricted to only Gaussian Process models, but Bayesian state-space models are also used. The novel use of Particle Gibbs for identification of nonlinear oscillators is shown and modifications to this algorithm are applied to handle its specific use in Structural Health Monitoring. Alongside this, the Bayesian state-space model is used to perform joint input-state-parameter inference for Operational Modal Analysis where the use of priors over the parameters and the forcing function (in the form of a Gaussian Process transformed into a state-space representation) provides a methodology for this output-only identification under parameter uncertainty. Interestingly, this method is shown to recover the parameter distributions of the model without compromising the recovery of the loading time-series signal when compared to the case where the parameters are known. Finally, a novel use of an online Bayesian clustering method is presented for performing Structural Health Monitoring in the absence of any available training data. This online method does not require a pre-collected training dataset, nor a model of the structure, and is capable of detecting and classifying a range of operational and damage conditions while in service. This leaves the reader with a toolbox of methods which can be applied, where appropriate, to identification of dynamic systems with a view to Structural Health Monitoring problems within the offshore industry and across engineering

Exploiting i–vector posterior covariances for short–duration language recognition

Linear models in i-vector space have shown to be an effective solution not only for speaker identification, but also for language recogniton. The i-vector extraction process, however, is affected by several factors, such as noise level, the acoustic content of the utterance and the duration of the spoken segments. These factors influence both the i-vector estimate and its uncertainty, represented by the i-vector posterior covariance matrix. Modeling of i-vector uncertainty with Probabilistic Linear Discriminant Analysis has shown to be effective for short-duration speaker identification. This paper extends the approach to language recognition, analyzing the effects of i-vector covariances on a state-of-the-art Gaussian classifier, and proposes an effective solution for the reduction of the average detection cost (Cavg) for short segments

Integrated Pre-Processing for Bayesian Nonlinear System Identification with Gaussian Processes

We introduce GP-FNARX: a new model for nonlinear system identification based on a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) with filtered regressors (F) where the nonlinear regression problem is tackled using sparse Gaussian processes (GP). We integrate data pre-processing with system identification into a fully automated procedure that goes from raw data to an identified model. Both pre-processing parameters and GP hyper-parameters are tuned by maximizing the marginal likelihood of the probabilistic model. We obtain a Bayesian model of the system's dynamics which is able to report its uncertainty in regions where the data is scarce. The automated approach, the modeling of uncertainty and its relatively low computational cost make of GP-FNARX a good candidate for applications in robotics and adaptive control.Comment: Proceedings of the 52th IEEE International Conference on Decision and Control (CDC), Firenze, Italy, December 201