1,810 research outputs found
von Neumann-Morgenstern and Savage Theorems for Causal Decision Making
Causal thinking and decision making under uncertainty are fundamental aspects
of intelligent reasoning. Decision making under uncertainty has been well
studied when information is considered at the associative (probabilistic)
level. The classical Theorems of von Neumann-Morgenstern and Savage provide a
formal criterion for rational choice using purely associative information.
Causal inference often yields uncertainty about the exact causal structure, so
we consider what kinds of decisions are possible in those conditions. In this
work, we consider decision problems in which available actions and consequences
are causally connected. After recalling a previous causal decision making
result, which relies on a known causal model, we consider the case in which the
causal mechanism that controls some environment is unknown to a rational
decision maker. In this setting we state and prove a causal version of Savage's
Theorem, which we then use to develop a notion of causal games with its
respective causal Nash equilibrium. These results highlight the importance of
causal models in decision making and the variety of potential applications.Comment: Submitted to Journal of Causal Inferenc
Towards autonomous diagnostic systems with medical imaging
Democratizing access to high quality healthcare has highlighted the need for autonomous diagnostic systems that a non-expert can use. Remote communities, first responders and even deep space explorers will come to rely on medical imaging systems that will provide them with Point of Care diagnostic capabilities.
This thesis introduces the building blocks that would enable the creation of such a system. Firstly, we present a case study in order to further motivate the need and requirements of autonomous diagnostic systems. This case study primarily concerns deep space exploration where astronauts cannot rely on communication with earth-bound doctors to help them through diagnosis, nor can they make the trip back to earth for treatment. Requirements and possible solutions about the major challenges faced with such an application are discussed.
Moreover, this work describes how a system can explore its perceived environment by developing a Multi Agent Reinforcement Learning method that allows for implicit communication between the agents. Under this regime agents can share the knowledge that benefits them all in achieving their individual tasks. Furthermore, we explore how systems can understand the 3D properties of 2D depicted objects in a probabilistic way.
In Part II, this work explores how to reason about the extracted information in a causally enabled manner. A critical view on the applications of causality in medical imaging, and its potential uses is provided. It is then narrowed down to estimating possible future outcomes and reasoning about counterfactual outcomes by embedding data on a pseudo-Riemannian manifold and constraining the latent space by using the relativistic concept of light cones.
By formalizing an approach to estimating counterfactuals, a computationally lighter alternative to the abduction-action-prediction paradigm is presented through the introduction of Deep Twin Networks. Appropriate partial identifiability constraints for categorical variables are derived and the method is applied in a series of medical tasks involving structured data, images and videos.
All methods are evaluated in a wide array of synthetic and real life tasks that showcase their abilities, often achieving state-of-the-art performance or matching the existing best performance while requiring a fraction of the computational cost.Open Acces
Deconfounded Imitation Learning
Standard imitation learning can fail when the expert demonstrators have
different sensory inputs than the imitating agent. This is because partial
observability gives rise to hidden confounders in the causal graph. We break
down the space of confounded imitation learning problems and identify three
settings with different data requirements in which the correct imitation policy
can be identified. We then introduce an algorithm for deconfounded imitation
learning, which trains an inference model jointly with a latent-conditional
policy. At test time, the agent alternates between updating its belief over the
latent and acting under the belief. We show in theory and practice that this
algorithm converges to the correct interventional policy, solves the
confounding issue, and can under certain assumptions achieve an asymptotically
optimal imitation performance
A Survey on Causal Reinforcement Learning
While Reinforcement Learning (RL) achieves tremendous success in sequential
decision-making problems of many domains, it still faces key challenges of data
inefficiency and the lack of interpretability. Interestingly, many researchers
have leveraged insights from the causality literature recently, bringing forth
flourishing works to unify the merits of causality and address well the
challenges from RL. As such, it is of great necessity and significance to
collate these Causal Reinforcement Learning (CRL) works, offer a review of CRL
methods, and investigate the potential functionality from causality toward RL.
In particular, we divide existing CRL approaches into two categories according
to whether their causality-based information is given in advance or not. We
further analyze each category in terms of the formalization of different
models, ranging from the Markov Decision Process (MDP), Partially Observed
Markov Decision Process (POMDP), Multi-Arm Bandits (MAB), and Dynamic Treatment
Regime (DTR). Moreover, we summarize the evaluation matrices and open sources
while we discuss emerging applications, along with promising prospects for the
future development of CRL.Comment: 29 pages, 20 figure
Learning World Models with Identifiable Factorization
Extracting a stable and compact representation of the environment is crucial
for efficient reinforcement learning in high-dimensional, noisy, and
non-stationary environments. Different categories of information coexist in
such environments -- how to effectively extract and disentangle these
information remains a challenging problem. In this paper, we propose IFactor, a
general framework to model four distinct categories of latent state variables
that capture various aspects of information within the RL system, based on
their interactions with actions and rewards. Our analysis establishes
block-wise identifiability of these latent variables, which not only provides a
stable and compact representation but also discloses that all reward-relevant
factors are significant for policy learning. We further present a practical
approach to learning the world model with identifiable blocks, ensuring the
removal of redundants but retaining minimal and sufficient information for
policy optimization. Experiments in synthetic worlds demonstrate that our
method accurately identifies the ground-truth latent variables, substantiating
our theoretical findings. Moreover, experiments in variants of the DeepMind
Control Suite and RoboDesk showcase the superior performance of our approach
over baselines
Learning how to act: making good decisions with machine learning
This thesis is about machine learning and statistical approaches
to decision making. How can we learn from data to anticipate the
consequence of, and optimally select, interventions or actions?
Problems such as deciding which medication to prescribe to
patients, who should be released on bail, and how much to charge
for insurance are ubiquitous, and have far reaching impacts on
our lives. There are two fundamental approaches to learning how
to act: reinforcement learning, in which an agent directly
intervenes in a system and learns from the outcome, and
observational causal inference, whereby we seek to infer the
outcome of an intervention from observing the system.
The goal of this thesis to connect and unify these key
approaches. I introduce causal bandit problems: a synthesis that
combines causal graphical models, which were developed for
observational causal inference, with multi-armed bandit problems,
which are a subset of reinforcement learning problems that are
simple enough to admit formal analysis. I show that knowledge of
the causal structure allows us to transfer information learned
about the outcome of one action to predict the outcome of an
alternate action, yielding a novel form of structure between
bandit arms that cannot be exploited by existing algorithms. I
propose an algorithm for causal bandit problems and prove bounds
on the simple regret demonstrating it is close to mini-max
optimal and better than algorithms that do not use the additional
causal information
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