Predicting wind energy generation with recurrent neural networks

Decarbonizing the energy supply requires extensive use of renewable generation. Their intermittent nature requires to obtain accurate forecasts of future generation, at short, mid and long term. Wind Energy generation prediction is based on the ability to forecast wind intensity. This problem has been approached using two families of methods one based on weather forecasting input (Numerical Weather Model Prediction) and the other based on past observations (time series forecasting). This work deals with the application of Deep Learning to wind time series. Wind Time series are non-linear and non-stationary, making their forecasting very challenging. Deep neural networks have shown their success recently for problems involving sequences with non-linear behavior. In this work, we perform experiments comparing the capability of different neural network architectures for multi-step forecasting in a 12 h ahead prediction. For the Time Series input we used the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s WIND Dataset [3], (the largest available wind and energy dataset with over 120,000 physical wind sites), this dataset is evenly spread across all the North America geography which has allowed us to obtain conclusions on the relationship between physical site complexity and forecast accuracy. In the preliminary results of this work it can be seen a relationship between the error (measured as R2R2 ) and the complexity of the terrain, and a better accuracy score by some Recurrent Neural Network Architectures.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Ideal vs. Non‐ideal Theory: A Conceptual Map

This article provides a conceptual map of the debate on ideal and non‐ideal theory. It argues that this debate encompasses a number of different questions, which have not been kept sufficiently separate in the literature. In particular, the article distinguishes between the following three interpretations of the ‘ideal vs. non‐ideal theory’ contrast: full compliance vs. partial compliance theory; utopian vs. realistic theory; end‐state vs. transitional theory. The article advances critical reflections on each of these sub‐debates, and highlights areas for future research in the field

Classical-Quantum dualities

In quantum field theory, the generating functional is the functional Fourier transform of e^iS, with S the classical action. Therefore, applying the inverse transform, a classical object, e^iS, can be expressed in terms of a path integral over quantum objects. This suggests that it may be possible to formulate a theory where classical mechanics is seen as the ''exact'' result and quantum mechanics is recovered in a ''quantum limit'', dual to the usual classical limit. The aim of this thesis is to explore this idea using a Hilbert space formulation for classical mechanics. In particular, we analyze the Koopman-von Neumann operatorial formulation of classical mechanics and derive from it a path integral representation. Then, we review the Wigner-Weyl (WW) formalism, usually applied in the formulation of quantum mechanics in phase space, and use it to reformulate classical mechanics in the quantum Hilbert space. Using the WW formalism, we derive two possible realizations of the quantum limit. First, we show that the role of Planck's constant h can be reversed because the limit h->0 can be interpreted as a limit in which the classical algebraic structure reduces to the quantum non-commutative structure. This suggests to interpret, at a dynamical level, the limit h->0 as a classical-quantum interface and to to consider the two theories, classical and quantum, on equal footing. Then, we show that applying the WW formalism to the classical Liouville equation, which governs the dynamics of classical statistical ensembles, it is possible to consider a ''local quantum approximation'' where the classical dynamics reduces to the quantum one if the states are sufficiently localized. This gives an alternative quantization procedure, where quantum dynamics is derived using a limit process

Tradisi Sihali Aek Bagi Masyarakat Desa Tipang Kecamatan Baktiraja Kabupaten Humbang Hasundutan

Abstrak: Kabupaten Humbang Hasundutan merupakan salah satu Kabupaten yang terletak di Provinsi Sumatera Utara yang memiliki banyak tradisi unik. Tradisi yang ditemukan di Kabupaten ini umumnya merupakan peninggalan leluhurnya dan masih dilaksanakan hingga saat ini. Salah satu tradisi unik yang ada di Kabupaten Humbang Hasundutan adalah Tradisi Sihali aek tepatnya di desa Tipang, Kecamatan Baktiraja. Tradisi sihali aek merupakan sistem yang mengatur irigasi yang ada di desa Tipang untuk mengalirkan air keareal persawahan. Penelitian ini bertujuan (1) untuk mengetahui latarbelakang munculnya tradisi sihali aek di desa Tipang, (2) untuk mengetahui proses pelaksanaan tradisi sihali aek di desa Tipang, (3) untuk mengetahui fungsi tradisi sihali aek di desa Tipang, (4) untuk mengetahui upaya yang dilakukan masyarakat untuk melestarikan tradisi sihali aek di desa Tipang. Dalam penelitian ini, penulis menggunakan metode kualitatif. Yang dimaksud metode kualitatif adalah penelitian yang bertujuan untuk menafsirkan fenomena tentang segala sesuatu yang dialami oleh subjek penelitian secara menyeluruh dan diungkapkan dengan kata-kata. Data dikumpulkan melalui metode observasi, wawancara dan dokumentasi. Analisi data menggunakan 3 komponen analisis yaitu reduksi data, penyajian data dan verifikasi data. Bermula dari desa Tipang yang ingin dijadikan sebagai areal pertanian namun kekurangan pasokan air dan ladang masih kering. Proses tradisi sihali aek mengalami perubahan pada prakteknya dan adanya penambahan atraksi budaya didalamnya. Adanya pelaksanaan tradisi sihali aek memberikan beberapa fungsi atau peranan bagi masyarakat desa Tipang. Mengenai upaya terlihat jelas dilakukan oleh masyarakat Tipang, yaitu dengan memberikan kesempatan terhadap kaum muda untuk berpartisipasi dalam pelaksanaan tradisi sihali aek. Selain itu pemerintah juga memberikan fasilitas pada pelaksanaan tradisi sihali aek.     Kata Kunci: Tradisi, Sihali aek, Masyaraka

Ideal matrices. III.

In this paper ideal matrices with respect to ideals in the maximal order of an algebraic number field are connected with the different of the field and with group matrices in the case of normal fields whose maximal order has a normal basis

Faktor-Faktor Pendorong dan Penghalang Pensiun Dini Pegawai Negeri Sipil (PNS) di Sumatera Barat

The aims of this research are to identify some determinant factors that may motivate and inhibit Indonesian public servants to retire early from their jobs. This study was conducted in four regencies and cities in the area of West Sumatera province and in the province government itself. The qualitative method was used in this research. Based on data analysis, it is found that there are some internal factors that motivated public servant to retire early like work saturartion, depression in career or promotion, or desire to do a new career. There are also external factors that motivated them to retire early like health hinderances and the good chances or opportunities in new jobs. Besides, there are also some inhibitions for the public servants to retire early and still remain in their current jobs until their regular retiring period