Multi-agent knowledge integration mechanism using particle swarm optimization

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2011 Elsevier B.V.Unstructured group decision-making is burdened with several central difficulties: unifying the knowledge of multiple experts in an unbiased manner and computational inefficiencies. In addition, a proper means of storing such unified knowledge for later use has not yet been established. Storage difficulties stem from of the integration of the logic underlying multiple experts' decision-making processes and the structured quantification of the impact of each opinion on the final product. To address these difficulties, this paper proposes a novel approach called the multiple agent-based knowledge integration mechanism (MAKIM), in which a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) is used as a knowledge representation and storage vehicle. In this approach, we use particle swarm optimization (PSO) to adjust causal relationships and causality coefficients from the perspective of global optimization. Once an optimized FCM is constructed an agent based model (ABM) is applied to the inference of the FCM to solve real world problem. The final aggregate knowledge is stored in FCM form and is used to produce proper inference results for other target problems. To test the validity of our approach, we applied MAKIM to a real-world group decision-making problem, an IT project risk assessment, and found MAKIM to be statistically robust.Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (Korea

Assessing Risks in Two Projects: A Strategic Opportunity and a Necessary Evil

McFarlan\u27s IT Project Risk Assessment Framework (Applegate, et al., 1996), identifies three main areas of IT project risk: project size, project structure, and technology familiarity. According to this framework, if two IT projects are of similar size, a project which is designed primarily around emerging technologies will entail significantly higher risks than a project which is designed primarily around traditional technologies. This paper analyzes two comparably-sized IT projects. One - a telemedicine initiative at Fletcher-Allen Health Care in Vermont -- is designed primarily around emerging technologies. The other - the year 2000 compliance program at the New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) - is focused primarily on fixing and testing existing systems on traditional platforms. Our assessment identified two additional salient criteria which, when applied to the two projects revealed higher risks at the MTA. These criteria are time constraints (i.e., the immovable deadline of the year 2000) and system interdependence (i.e., the need for applications to share data with other applications, both within the MTA and with numerous external parties). When these two factors are taken into account, it becomes evident that Year 2000 initiatives represent far higher project risks than the emerging technology projects that are considered to be on the bleeding edge

Risk Profiles in Individual Software Development and Packaged Software Implementation Projects: A Delphi Study at a German-Based Financial Services Company

The aim of this paper is to compare risk profiles of individual software development (ISD) and packaged software implementation (PSI) projects. While researchers have investigated risks in either PSI projects or ISD projects, an integrated perspective on how the risk profiles of these two types of information system (IS) projects differ is missing. To explore these differences, this work conducted a Delphi study at a German-based financial services company. The results suggest that: First, ISD projects seem to be more heterogeneous and face a larger variety of risks than the more straightforward PSI projects. Second, ISD projects seem to be particularly prone to risks related to sponsorship, requirements, and project organization. Third, PSI projects tend to be predominantly subject to risks related to technology, project planning, and project completion. Finally, in contrast to available lists of risks in IS projects and irrespective of the project type, the paper found a surprisingly high prominence of technology and testing-related risks

THE IMPACT OF RISK CHECKLISTS ON PROJECT MANAGER\u27S RISK PERCEPTION AND DECISION-MAKING PROCESS

Risk checklists are often used to assist project managers to identify the potential risks in software projects. Previous study found that the checklists can help managers identify more risks, but the number of risks identified doesn’t significantly correlate with managers’ decision. This might because some risk items could play more important role than other risk items in manager’s decision-making process. This paper uses a survey-based research method to investigate the weight of different risk items on project manager’s risk perception and decision-making. This research will be carried out in two phases: 1) Pilot study. A questionnaire will be developed and administrated to college students. The result will be analyzed and research instrument will be modified based on the feedback. 2). Formal study. A group of IT project managers will be recruited and the revised instrument will be sent to them for participation. A detailed research design is presented

Disengagement from Risk Management Practices in Software Development Projects: Framing Effects

Many software projects fail: they take more time than they were intended to, go over their budgets, and do not achieve the intended functionalities. Software project failures occur, in part, because software project managers (SPMs) often fail to manage project risks. Researchers have developed many risk management prescriptions to guide SPMs, including risk checklists, frameworks, practices, and risk response strategies. However, research has shown that SPMs do not use these prescriptions widely. This study addresses the research question: why do many SPMs not fully engage in formal risk management? The question will be answered using a case study approach. The findings will extend our understanding of software project risk management by demonstrating why SPMs sometimes act so differently from formal prescriptions

IT Project Management & Managerial Risk: Effects of Overconfidence

Due to high IT project failure rates, risk management in IT projects has attracted significant research interest and continues to be an important research and managerial concern. Recently, a stream of IS research has focused on the risks posed by managerial decision making on IT projects, by showing how managers themselves are a major source of risk by falling prey to various heuristics and biases while making decisions at various stages of IT project management. In this study, we explore one of the concepts i.e. overconfidence, and have proposed some potential areas of research. We hope that empirical examination of the propositions will give an insight into the details of how managers become victims of own biases through overconfidence thus causing severe yet systematic risks to the IT projects

Escalating IT-projects: A text-analysis of risk-framing effects of managers

Despite significant research in the area, many IT projects fail to realize their targets with regards to time, budget or functionality. Resources continue to be committed to projects even though information is available which indicates that they are no longer viable. Prospect theory explains that these decisions can result from the risk preferences of individuals. A framing effect occurs when specific words are used, or attributes are emphasized, which influence these risk preferences. This research uses text analysis to determine which types of framing are applied by project managers when discussing a project. This information is used to gain insight into their so-called ‘project frame’ which helps to predict their decision making behavior. The findings demonstrate that the three main types of framing are indeed applied during conversations and that these can be linked to either a positive or a negative project frame

The Influence Of Commitment To Project Objectives In Information Technology (IT) Projects

Managing successful Information Technology (IT) projects remains a challenging and perplexing ambition in today’s complex IT environment where project deliverables continue to be brought in behind schedule, over budget, and with less functionality than originally planned.  This study delves into goal commitment theory to investigate the potential role of commitment to project objectives in improving the performance of IT projects.  The following two questions are considered in this research:  (1) How does commitment influence perceptions of project performance, and (2) What key factors predict commitment?  Survey responses were collected from professionals currently involved in IT projects and data was analyzed using structural equation modeling.  Results indicate that commitment to project objectives has a positive influence on perceptions of project performance both directly and indirectly through individuals’ propensity to report project status information.  Time pressure in the project was found to have a negative influence on commitment to project objectives, while perceptions of personal investment had a positive effect on commitment to project objectives.  Time pressure also had a positive influence on perceptions of personal investment and a negative influence on perceptions of project performance.  Implications for research and practice are discussed