Análise multi-critério aplicada ao mapeamento da suscetibilidade a escorregamentos

This paper presents the application of a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) tool for landslide susceptibility assessment in Porto Alegre municipality, southern Brazil. A knowledge driven approach was used, aiming to ensure an optimal use of the available information. The landslide conditioning factors considered were slope, lithology, fl ow accumulation and distance from lineaments. Standardization of these factors was done through fuzzy membership functions, and evaluation of their relative importance for landslide predisposition was supported by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), based on local expert knowledge. Finally, factors were integrated in a GIS environment using the weighted linear combination (WLC) method. For validation, an inventory, including 107 landslide points recorded between 2007 and 2013 was used. Results indicated that 8.2% (39.40 km²) of the study area are highly and very highly susceptible to landslides. An overall accuracy of 95% was found, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.960. Therefore, the resulting map can be regarded as useful for monitoring landslide-prone areas. Based on the fi ndings, it is concluded that the proposed method is eff ective for susceptibility assessment since it yielded meaningful results and does not require extensive input data.Este estudo apresenta a aplicação de uma ferramenta de análise multi-critério para mapear a suscetibilidade a escorregamentos no município de Porto Alegre, sul do Brasil. Uma abordagem guiada pelo conhecimento de especialistas foi utilizada, com o intuito de otimizar a utilização das informações disponíveis. Os fatores condicionantes dos escorregamentos considerados foram declividade, litologia, acúmulo defl uxo e distância de lineamentos. A padronização desses fatores foi realizada por meio da aplicação de funções fuzzy e a importância relativa de cada um na predisposição do terreno a escorregamentos foi estabelecida com o apoio da técnica AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process), com base no conhecimento de especialistas locais. Por fi m, a integração dos fatores em ambiente SIG se deu por meio do método denominado Combinação Linear Ponderada (WLC). Para validar os resultados, utilizou-se um mapa inventário contendo 107 cicatrizes de escorregamentos, registradas entre 2007 e 2013. Os resultados indicam que 8,2% (39,38 km²) da área de estudo possui uma suscetibilidade alta e muito alta a escorregamentos. A validação dos resultados obteve uma exatidão geral de 95%, com uma área abaixo da curva ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) de 0,960. Portanto, o mapa obtido pode ser considerado útil para monitorar as áreas propensas a esses processos. Com base nos resultados, conclui-se que o método proposto é efi caz para a avaliação da suscetibilidade, uma vez que os resultados obtidos são robustos e que não foi necessária uma quantidade extensa de dados de entrada

Österreichischer Sachstandsbericht Klimawandel 2014

The AAR14 is the first Assessment Report on climate Change in Austria assessing the Impact of climate change and the Needs and possibilities of mitigation and Adaptation. This three-volume Report, developed through a multiple peer-Review process including stakeholder participation, presents a coherent assessment of scientific knowledge about climate and makes it accessible for both decision-makers and the General public. Approximately 240 scientists from 50 institutions have participated in this national Assessment ReportDer AAR14 ist der erste Sachstandsbericht zum Klimawandel in Österreich, zu dessen Auswirkungen, und den Erfordernissen und Möglichkeiten der Minderung und Anpassung. Der drei-bändige Bericht, der einen mehrstufigen Peer-Review-Prozess inklusive Stakeholder-Partizipation durchlaufen hat, legt den wissenschaftlich gesicherten Kenntnisstand für Österreich kohärent dar und macht ihn Entscheidungstragenden und der interessierten Öffentlichkeit zugänglich. An dem nationalen Sachstandbericht haben rund 240 WissenschafterInnen aus 50 Institutionen mitgewirkt.Der Österreichische Sachstandsbericht Klimawandel 2014 (AAR14) stellt einen Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-ähnlichen Bericht dar. Er besteht aus drei Bänden, in denen das bestehende Wissen zum Klimawandel in Österreich, zu dessen Auswirkungen, und den Erfordernissen und Möglichkeiten der Minderung und Anpassung zusammengefasst wird. Der Bericht verfolgt das Ziel, den wissenschaftlichen Kenntnisstand für Österreich kohärent und vollständig darzulegen und diesen auch in Form von politikrelevanten Analysen an die Österreichische Bundesregierung und politische Entscheidungsgremien auf allen Ebenen zu übermitteln, bzw. um dadurch Entscheidungsgrundlagen auch für den privaten Sektor und einen Wissensfundus für akademische Institutionen bereitzustellen. Ähnlich den IPCC-Sachstandsberichten liegt dem AAR14 das Prinzip zugrunde, entscheidungsrelevant zu sein, aber keinen empfehlenden Charakter zu haben

Österreichischer Sachstandsbericht Klimawandel 2014

The AAR14 is the first Assessment Report on climate Change in Austria assessing the Impact of climate change and the Needs and possibilities of mitigation and Adaptation. This three-volume Report, developed through a multiple peer-Review process including stakeholder participation, presents a coherent assessment of scientific knowledge about climate and makes it accessible for both decision-makers and the General public. Approximately 240 scientists from 50 institutions have participated in this national Assessment Repor