Modeling Taxi Drivers' Behaviour for the Next Destination Prediction

In this paper, we study how to model taxi drivers' behaviour and geographical information for an interesting and challenging task: the next destination prediction in a taxi journey. Predicting the next location is a well studied problem in human mobility, which finds several applications in real-world scenarios, from optimizing the efficiency of electronic dispatching systems to predicting and reducing the traffic jam. This task is normally modeled as a multiclass classification problem, where the goal is to select, among a set of already known locations, the next taxi destination. We present a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) approach that models the taxi drivers' behaviour and encodes the semantics of visited locations by using geographical information from Location-Based Social Networks (LBSNs). In particular, RNNs are trained to predict the exact coordinates of the next destination, overcoming the problem of producing, in output, a limited set of locations, seen during the training phase. The proposed approach was tested on the ECML/PKDD Discovery Challenge 2015 dataset - based on the city of Porto -, obtaining better results with respect to the competition winner, whilst using less information, and on Manhattan and San Francisco datasets.Comment: preprint version of a paper submitted to IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation System

Context Trees: Augmenting Geospatial Trajectories with Context

Exposing latent knowledge in geospatial trajectories has the potential to provide a better understanding of the movements of individuals and groups. Motivated by such a desire, this work presents the context tree, a new hierarchical data structure that summarises the context behind user actions in a single model. We propose a method for context tree construction that augments geospatial trajectories with land usage data to identify such contexts. Through evaluation of the construction method and analysis of the properties of generated context trees, we demonstrate the foundation for understanding and modelling behaviour afforded. Summarising user contexts into a single data structure gives easy access to information that would otherwise remain latent, providing the basis for better understanding and predicting the actions and behaviours of individuals and groups. Finally, we also present a method for pruning context trees, for use in applications where it is desirable to reduce the size of the tree while retaining useful information

Correlations Between Human Mobility and Social Interaction Reveal General Activity Patterns

A day in the life of a person involves a broad range of activities which are common across many people. Going beyond diurnal cycles, a central question is: to what extent do individuals act according to patterns shared across an entire population? Here we investigate the interplay between different activity types, namely communication, motion, and physical proximity by analyzing data collected from smartphones distributed among 638 individuals. We explore two central questions: Which underlying principles govern the formation of the activity patterns? Are the patterns specific to each individual or shared across the entire population? We find that statistics of the entire population allows us to successfully predict 71\% of the activity and 85\% of the inactivity involved in communication, mobility, and physical proximity. Surprisingly, individual level statistics only result in marginally better predictions, indicating that a majority of activity patterns are shared across {our sample population}. Finally, we predict short-term activity patterns using a generalized linear model, which suggests that a simple linear description might be sufficient to explain a wide range of actions, whether they be of social or of physical character

PATH: Person Authentication using Trace Histories

In this paper, a solution to the problem of Active Authentication using trace histories is addressed. Specifically, the task is to perform user verification on mobile devices using historical location traces of the user as a function of time. Considering the movement of a human as a Markovian motion, a modified Hidden Markov Model (HMM)-based solution is proposed. The proposed method, namely the Marginally Smoothed HMM (MSHMM), utilizes the marginal probabilities of location and timing information of the observations to smooth-out the emission probabilities while training. Hence, it can efficiently handle unforeseen observations during the test phase. The verification performance of this method is compared to a sequence matching (SM) method , a Markov Chain-based method (MC) and an HMM with basic Laplace Smoothing (HMM-lap). Experimental results using the location information of the UMD Active Authentication Dataset-02 (UMDAA02) and the GeoLife dataset are presented. The proposed MSHMM method outperforms the compared methods in terms of equal error rate (EER). Additionally, the effects of different parameters on the proposed method are discussed.Comment: 8 pages, 9 figures. Best Paper award at IEEE UEMCON 201

Breaking the habit: measuring and predicting departures from routine in individual human mobility

Researchers studying daily life mobility patterns have recently shown that humans are typically highly predictable in their movements. However, no existing work has examined the boundaries of this predictability, where human behaviour transitions temporarily from routine patterns to highly unpredictable states. To address this shortcoming, we tackle two interrelated challenges. First, we develop a novel information-theoretic metric, called instantaneous entropy, to analyse an individual’s mobility patterns and identify temporary departures from routine. Second, to predict such departures in the future, we propose the first Bayesian framework that explicitly models breaks from routine, showing that it outperforms current state-of-the-art predictor

Creating Full Individual-level Location Timelines from Sparse Social Media Data

In many domain applications, a continuous timeline of human locations is critical; for example for understanding possible locations where a disease may spread, or the flow of traffic. While data sources such as GPS trackers or Call Data Records are temporally-rich, they are expensive, often not publicly available or garnered only in select locations, restricting their wide use. Conversely, geo-located social media data are publicly and freely available, but present challenges especially for full timeline inference due to their sparse nature. We propose a stochastic framework, Intermediate Location Computing (ILC) which uses prior knowledge about human mobility patterns to predict every missing location from an individual's social media timeline. We compare ILC with a state-of-the-art RNN baseline as well as methods that are optimized for next-location prediction only. For three major cities, ILC predicts the top 1 location for all missing locations in a timeline, at 1 and 2-hour resolution, with up to 77.2% accuracy (up to 6% better accuracy than all compared methods). Specifically, ILC also outperforms the RNN in settings of low data; both cases of very small number of users (under 50), as well as settings with more users, but with sparser timelines. In general, the RNN model needs a higher number of users to achieve the same performance as ILC. Overall, this work illustrates the tradeoff between prior knowledge of heuristics and more data, for an important societal problem of filling in entire timelines using freely available, but sparse social media data.Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures, 2 table