Planning as Inference in Epidemiological Models

In this work we demonstrate how existing software tools can be used to automate parts of infectious disease-control policy-making via performing inference in existing epidemiological dynamics models. The kind of inference tasks undertaken include computing, for planning purposes, the posterior distribution over putatively controllable, via direct policy-making choices, simulation model parameters that give rise to acceptable disease progression outcomes. Neither the full capabilities of such inference automation software tools nor their utility for planning is widely disseminated at the current time. Timely gains in understanding about these tools and how they can be used may lead to more fine-grained and less economically damaging policy prescriptions, particularly during the current COVID-19 pandemic.Comment: minor typos correcte

Simulation Intelligence: Towards a New Generation of Scientific Methods

The original "Seven Motifs" set forth a roadmap of essential methods for the field of scientific computing, where a motif is an algorithmic method that captures a pattern of computation and data movement. We present the "Nine Motifs of Simulation Intelligence", a roadmap for the development and integration of the essential algorithms necessary for a merger of scientific computing, scientific simulation, and artificial intelligence. We call this merger simulation intelligence (SI), for short. We argue the motifs of simulation intelligence are interconnected and interdependent, much like the components within the layers of an operating system. Using this metaphor, we explore the nature of each layer of the simulation intelligence operating system stack (SI-stack) and the motifs therein: (1) Multi-physics and multi-scale modeling; (2) Surrogate modeling and emulation; (3) Simulation-based inference; (4) Causal modeling and inference; (5) Agent-based modeling; (6) Probabilistic programming; (7) Differentiable programming; (8) Open-ended optimization; (9) Machine programming. We believe coordinated efforts between motifs offers immense opportunity to accelerate scientific discovery, from solving inverse problems in synthetic biology and climate science, to directing nuclear energy experiments and predicting emergent behavior in socioeconomic settings. We elaborate on each layer of the SI-stack, detailing the state-of-art methods, presenting examples to highlight challenges and opportunities, and advocating for specific ways to advance the motifs and the synergies from their combinations. Advancing and integrating these technologies can enable a robust and efficient hypothesis-simulation-analysis type of scientific method, which we introduce with several use-cases for human-machine teaming and automated science

Defense Technical Information Center thesaurus

This DTIC Thesaurus provides a basic multidisciplinary subject term vocabulary used by DTIC to index and retrieve scientific and technical information from its various data bases and to aid DTIC`s users in their information storage and retrieval operations. It includes an alphabetical posting term display, a hierarchy display, and a Keywork Out of Context (KWOC) display

Personality Identification from Social Media Using Deep Learning: A Review

Social media helps in sharing of ideas and information among people scattered around the world and thus helps in creating communities, groups, and virtual networks. Identification of personality is significant in many types of applications such as in detecting the mental state or character of a person, predicting job satisfaction, professional and personal relationship success, in recommendation systems. Personality is also an important factor to determine individual variation in thoughts, feelings, and conduct systems. According to the survey of Global social media research in 2018, approximately 3.196 billion social media users are in worldwide. The numbers are estimated to grow rapidly further with the use of mobile smart devices and advancement in technology. Support vector machine (SVM), Naive Bayes (NB), Multilayer perceptron neural network, and convolutional neural network (CNN) are some of the machine learning techniques used for personality identification in the literature review. This paper presents various studies conducted in identifying the personality of social media users with the help of machine learning approaches and the recent studies that targeted to predict the personality of online social media (OSM) users are reviewed

Risk Management for the Future

A large part of academic literature, business literature as well as practices in real life are resting on the assumption that uncertainty and risk does not exist. We all know that this is not true, yet, a whole variety of methods, tools and practices are not attuned to the fact that the future is uncertain and that risks are all around us. However, despite risk management entering the agenda some decades ago, it has introduced risks on its own as illustrated by the financial crisis. Here is a book that goes beyond risk management as it is today and tries to discuss what needs to be improved further. The book also offers some cases

Psr1p interacts with SUN/sad1p and EB1/mal3p to establish the bipolar spindle

Regular Abstracts - Sunday Poster Presentations: no. 382During mitosis, interpolar microtubules from two spindle pole bodies (SPBs) interdigitate to create an antiparallel microtubule array for accommodating numerous regulatory proteins. Among these proteins, the kinesin-5 cut7p/Eg5 is the key player responsible for sliding apart antiparallel microtubules and thus helps in establishing the bipolar spindle. At the onset of mitosis, two SPBs are adjacent to one another with most microtubules running nearly parallel toward the nuclear envelope, creating an unfavorable microtubule configuration for the kinesin-5 kinesins. Therefore, how the cell organizes the antiparallel microtubule array in the first place at mitotic onset remains enigmatic. Here, we show that a novel protein psrp1p localizes to the SPB and plays a key role in organizing the antiparallel microtubule array. The absence of psr1+ leads to a transient monopolar spindle and massive chromosome loss. Further functional characterization demonstrates that psr1p is recruited to the SPB through interaction with the conserved SUN protein sad1p and that psr1p physically interacts with the conserved microtubule plus tip protein mal3p/EB1. These results suggest a model that psr1p serves as a linking protein between sad1p/SUN and mal3p/EB1 to allow microtubule plus ends to be coupled to the SPBs for organization of an antiparallel microtubule array. Thus, we conclude that psr1p is involved in organizing the antiparallel microtubule array in the first place at mitosis onset by interaction with SUN/sad1p and EB1/mal3p, thereby establishing the bipolar spindle.postprin

Removal of antagonistic spindle forces can rescue metaphase spindle length and reduce chromosome segregation defects

Regular Abstracts - Tuesday Poster Presentations: no. 1925Metaphase describes a phase of mitosis where chromosomes are attached and oriented on the bipolar spindle for subsequent segregation at anaphase. In diverse cell types, the metaphase spindle is maintained at a relatively constant length. Metaphase spindle length is proposed to be regulated by a balance of pushing and pulling forces generated by distinct sets of spindle microtubules and their interactions with motors and microtubule-associated proteins (MAPs). Spindle length appears important for chromosome segregation fidelity, as cells with shorter or longer than normal metaphase spindles, generated through deletion or inhibition of individual mitotic motors or MAPs, showed chromosome segregation defects. To test the force balance model of spindle length control and its effect on chromosome segregation, we applied fast microfluidic temperature-control with live-cell imaging to monitor the effect of switching off different combinations of antagonistic forces in the fission yeast metaphase spindle. We show that spindle midzone proteins kinesin-5 cut7p and microtubule bundler ase1p contribute to outward pushing forces, and spindle kinetochore proteins kinesin-8 klp5/6p and dam1p contribute to inward pulling forces. Removing these proteins individually led to aberrant metaphase spindle length and chromosome segregation defects. Removing these proteins in antagonistic combination rescued the defective spindle length and, in some combinations, also partially rescued chromosome segregation defects. Our results stress the importance of proper chromosome-to-microtubule attachment over spindle length regulation for proper chromosome segregation.postprin