Essays On International Market Efficiency and Manipulation

Three empirical studies in this dissertation all examine issues that important and related to the international market. Three essays share similar theme and try to address the common questions whether the institutional difference, such as exchange regulation, surveillance, national culture, economic and market condition, could explain the difference in market manipulation as well as market efficiency. The first essay examines the impact of stock exchange regulation and surveillance around the world and seeks to understand whether or not exchange regulation and their enforcement facilitate more efficient markets with greater integrity. Using new indices for market manipulation, insider trading, and broker-agency conflict based on the trading rules of each stock exchange, along with surveillance to detect non-compliance with such rules, we show that more detailed exchange trading rules and surveillance over time and across markets significantly reduce the number of cases, but increase the profits per case. The second essay examines the important role of high frequency traders (HFT) in the equity market. I show that the presence of high frequency trading (HFT) has significantly mitigated the frequency and severity of end-of-day price dislocation, counter to recent concerns expressed in the media. Moreover, the effect of HFT is more pronounced than the role of trading rules, surveillance, enforcement and legal conditions in curtailing the frequency and severity of end-of-day price dislocation. The third essay examines the institutional factor, national culture around the world and links this culture difference with overall stock market volatility. I find that Nations with lower value of individualistic culture are more likely to have a higher number of synchronized stock price movements. Further, the correlations between stock price movements apparently increase stock market volatility. The positive relationship between synchronized stock price movements and stock market volatility is stronger for emerging markets during the financial crisis from June 2007 to December 2008. Rather than due to the different levels of economic development, the empirical results here indicate that a portion of the difference in market level volatility is attributed to the investor bias of different cultures

Visibility graph analysis of crude oil futures markets: Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict

Drawing inspiration from the significant impact of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the recent COVID-19 pandemic on global financial markets, this study conducts a thorough analysis of three key crude oil futures markets: WTI, Brent, and Shanghai (SC). Employing the visibility graph (VG) methodology, we examine both static and dynamic characteristics using daily and high-frequency data. We identified a clear power-law decay in most VG degree distributions and highlighted the pronounced clustering tendencies within crude oil futures VGs. Our results also confirm an inverse correlation between clustering coefficient and node degree and further reveal that all VGs not only adhere to the small-world property but also exhibit intricate assortative mixing. Through the time-varying characteristics of VGs, we found that WTI and Brent demonstrate aligned behavior, while the SC market, with its unique trading mechanics, deviates. The 5-minute VGs' assortativity coefficient provides a deeper understanding of these markets' reactions to the pandemic and geopolitical events. Furthermore, the differential responses during the COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine conflict underline the unique sensitivities of each market to global disruptions. Overall, this research offers profound insights into the structure, dynamics, and adaptability of these essential commodities markets in the face of worldwide challenges.Comment: 16 pages, 10 figure

A Regulatory Retreat: Energy Market Exemption from Private Anti-Manipulation Actions Under the Commodity Exchange Act

In order to facilitate greater reform in energy markets, Dodd-Frank granted the CFTC wide-ranging powers as part of the greater mandate given to the CFTC in relation to OTC-swaps and the daily derivatives trading activity in commodities futures and options markets. As a result, Dodd-Frank subjected electricity market transactions—which traditionally occur under the oversight of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in markets organized around independent system operators and regional transmission organizations—to the anti-manipulation prohibitions of the Commodity Exchange Act. Thus, differently from FERC’s regime, the post-Dodd-Frank statutory framework opened the way for enforcement of market discipline in electricity markets through a private right of action under Section 22 of the CEA. This development drew strong opposition from the industry, and also caused a conflict between courts and the CFTC in the interpretation of the relevant law. In October of 2016, the CFTC stepped back by issuing a final exemptive order to the participants of seven national energy markets, which constitute almost the entire U.S. wholesale electricity market. The withdrawal of the private right of action conflicts with the position previously advocated by the CFTC itself. It also raises questions about the CFTC’s use of its exemptive powers, as the removal of a statutory right through agency rulemaking may potentially be in conflict with the text and statutory purpose of the CEA as amended by Dodd-Frank. The exemption not only removes an important tool in enforcing market discipline, but also has the potential to undermine the reform efforts in the transition of U.S. energy markets to a smart grid. This Note will provide a history of the developments that have unfolded since the enactment of Dodd-Frank in relation to the availability of a private right of action under the CEA in energy markets. The Note also analyzes commonly raised arguments against the availability of a private right of action and presents the various counter-arguments

High frequency trading and end-of-day price dislocation : [Version 28 Oktober 2013]

We show that the presence of high frequency trading (HFT) has significantly mitigated the frequency and severity of end-of-day price dislocation, counter to recent concerns expressed in the media. The effect of HFT is more pronounced on days when end of day price dislocation is more likely to be the result of market manipulation on days of option expiry dates and end of month. Moreover, the effect of HFT is more pronounced than the role of trading rules, surveillance, enforcement and legal conditions in curtailing the frequency and severity of end-of-day price dislocation. We show our findings are robust to different proxies of the start of HFT by trade size, cancellation of orders, and co-location

The Rise of Computerized High Frequency Trading: Use and Controversy

Over the last decade, there has been a dramatic shift in how securities are traded in the capital markets. Utilizing supercomputers and complex algorithms that pick up on breaking news, company/stock/economic information and price and volume movements, many institutions now make trades in a matter of microseconds, through a practice known as high frequency trading. Today, high frequency traders have virtually phased out the dinosaur floor-traders and average investors of the past. With the recent attempted robbery of one of these high frequency trading platforms from Goldman Sachs this past summer, this rise of the machines has become front page news, generating vast controversy and discourse over this largely secretive and ultra-lucrative practice. Because of this phenomenon, those of us on Main Street are faced with a variety of questions: What exactly is high frequency trading? How does it work? How long has this been going on for? Should it be banned or curtailed? What is the end-game, and how will this shape the future of securities trading and its regulation? This iBrief explores the answers to these questions

Exchange trading rules, surveillance and insider trading : [draft 15 oct 2013]

We examine the impact of stock exchange trading rules and surveillance on the frequency and severity of suspected insider trading cases in 22 stock exchanges around the world over the period January 2003 through June 2011. Using new indices for market manipulation, insider trading, and broker-agency conflict based on the specific provisions of the trading rules of each stock exchange, along with surveillance to detect non-compliance with such rules, we show that more detailed exchange trading rules and surveillance over time and across markets significantly reduce the number of cases, but increase the profits per case

The Impact of News, Oil Prices, and Global Market Developments on Russian Financial Markets

This paper analyzes the impact of news, oil prices, and international financial market developments on daily returns on Russian bond and stock markets. First, regarding returns, energy news affects returns, while news from the war in Chechnya is not significant. Market volatility does not appear to be sensitive to either type of news. Second, a significant effect of the growth in oil prices on Russian stock returns is detected. Third, the international influence on Russian financial markets depends upon the degree of financial liberalization. The higher the degree of financial liberalization, the stronger is the impact of U.S. stock returns on Russian financial markets. In addition, banking reform and interest rate liberalization efforts seem to dictate the globalization of Russian stock markets, while it is the progress in liberalizing securities markets and non-bank financial institutions that matters more for the globalization of Russian bond markets.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40042/3/wp656.pd