Effective Basemetal Hedging: The Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedging Horizon

This study investigates optimal hedge ratios in all base metal markets. Using recent hedging computation techniques, we find that 1) the short-run optimal hedging ratio is increasing in hedging horizon, 2) that the long-term horizon limit to the optimal hedging ratio is not converging to one but is slightly higher for most of these markets, and 3) that hedging effectiveness is also increasing in hedging horizon. When hedging with futures in these markets, one should hedge long-term at about 6 to 8 weeks with a slightly greater than one hedge ratio. These results are of interest to many purchasing departments and other commodity hedgers

Explicit bond option and swaption formula in Heath-Jarrow-Morton one factor model

We present an explicit formula for European options on coupon bearing bonds and swaptions in the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) one factor model with non-stochastic volatility. The formula extends the Jamshidian formula for zero-coupon bonds. We provide also an explicit way to compute the hedging ratio (Delta) to hedge the option with its underlying.Bond option, swaption, explicit formula, HJM model, one factor model, hedging

Hedging effectiveness of crude palm oil futures market in Malaysia

This paper investigated the hedging effectiveness of crude palm oil futures market in Malaysia from January 2009 to June 2011 which traded under Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Berhad. Ordinary Least Squared (OLS) method was used to compute Minimum-Variance hedging ratio (MVHR), R-squared and hedging effectiveness by using daily data from settlement price of crude palm oil futures contracts and spot price of crude palm oil. The empirical results indicate that the highest hedging ratio has been observed in the February 2009 FCPO contract, 66.7660%. Meanwhile, the lowest hedging ratio occurs in June 2010 contract which is 35.7131%. In overall, Malaysia FCPO market only provides a low level of hedging effectiveness (19% - 53%) due to less volatility of CPO spot price. As a conclusion, hedging effectiveness of crude palm oil futures market in Malaysia shows a low level of hedging effectiveness. This result indicates that the spot price of crude palm oil in Malaysia is relatively stable and consistent over the period of 2009 to 2011. The outcome of this research intends to provide hedging information of the Malaysia FCPO futures market in order to cover risk exposure by holding FCPO in BMD

How do manager incentives influence corporate hedging?

We explain the diversity of corporate hedging behavior in a single model. The hedging ratio is obtained by maximizing expected utility that is a combination of the corporate level utility and a component that models the incentives of the financial manager. We derive a theoretical model that gives back the classic result of the literature if the financial manager has no other incentive than to maximize corporate utility. In the case the financial manager expects that his evaluation will be based exclusively on the financial profit (the profit of the hedging transactions), being risk averse, he decides not to hedge at all. The hedging ratio depends on the weight of these contradictory effects. We test our theoretical results on Hungarian corporate survey data

More Reasons Why Farmers Have So Little Interest in Futures Markets

The use by farmers of futures contracts and other hedging instruments has been observed to be low in many situations, and this has sometimes seemed to be considered surprising or even mysterious. We propose that it is, in fact, readily understandable and consistent with rational decision making. Standard models of the decision about optimal hedging show that it is negatively related to basis risk, to quantity risk, and to transaction costs. Farmers who have less uncertainty about prices have a lower optimal level of hedging. If a farmer has optimistic price expectations relative to the futures market, the incentive to hedge can be greatly reduced. And finally, farmers who have low levels of risk aversion have little to gain from hedging in terms of risk reduction, in that the certainty equivalent payoff at their optimal hedge may be little different to the certainty equivalent under zero hedging. These reasons are additional to the argument of Simmons (2002) who showed that, if capital markets are efficient, farmers can manage their risk exposure through adjusting their leverage, obviating the need for hedging instruments.hedging, risk, risk aversion, flat payoff functions, Agricultural Finance,

"Realized Volatility, Covariance and Hedging Coefficient of the Nikkei-225 Futures with Micro-Market Noise"

For the estimation problem of the realized volatility, covariance and hedging coefficient by using high frequency data with possibly micro-market noises, we use the Separating Information Maximum Likelihood (SIML) method, which was recently developed by Kunitomo and Sato (2008). By analyzing the Nikkei 225 futures and spot index markets, we have found that the estimates of realized volatility, covariance and hedging coefficient have significant bias by the traditional method which should be corrected. Our method can handle the estimation bias and the tick-size effects of Nikkei 225 futures by removing the possible micro-market noise in multivariate high frequency data.

Potential demand for hedging by Australian wheat producers

The potential for hedging Australian wheat with the new Sydney Futures Exchange wheat contract is examined using a theoretical hedging model parametised from previous studies. The optimal hedging ratio for an `average' wheat farmer was found to be zero under reasonable assumptions about transaction costs and based on previously published measures of risk aversion. The estimated optimal hedging ratios were found by simulation to be quite sensitive to assumptions about the degree of risk aversion. If farmers are significantly more risk averse than is currently believed, then there is likely to be an active interest in the new futures market.Crop Production/Industries, Marketing, Risk and Uncertainty,

Borrowing Constraint as an Optimal Contract

We study a continuous-time version of the optimal risk-sharing problem with one-sided commitment. In the optimal contract, the agent's consumption is non-decreasing and depends only on the maximal level of the agent's income realized to date. In the complete-markets implementation of the optimal contract, the Alvarez-Jermann solvency constraints take the form of a simple borrowing constraint familiar from the Bewley-Aiyagari incomplete-markets models. Unlike in the incomplete-markets models, however, the asset buffer stock held by the agent is negatively correlated with income.Borrowing constraint, limited commitment