A PRODUCER-LEVEL CROSS-HEDGE FOR ROUGH RICE USING WHEAT FUTURES

This study explores the potential of routine preharvest cross-hedging of rough rice using wheat futures contract prices. A numerical simulation approach combined with risk efficiency analysis evaluates a wide rage of cross-hedging alternatives. Results establish that farm-level cross-hedging can be considered a viable marketing alternative.Marketing,

Hedging Barrier Options: Current Methods and Alternatives

This paper applies to the static hedge of barrier options a technique, mean-square hedging, designed to minimize the size of the hedging error when perfect replication is not possible. It introduces an extension of this technique which preserves the computational efficiency of mean-square hedging while being consistent with any prior pricing model or with any linear constraint on the hedging residual. This improves on current static hedging methods, which aim at exactly replicating barrier options and rely on strong assumptions on the availability of traded options with certain strikes or maturities, or on the distribution of the underlying asset.Barrier options, Static hedging, Mean-square hedging

AN EVALUATION OF PRICING PERFORMANCE AND HEDGING EFFECTIVENESS OF THE BARLEY FUTURES MARKET

This paper investigates the pricing efficiency and hedging effectiveness of the Winnipeg barley futures market, using the Chicago corn futures market as a norm. Several tests of pricing efficiency were conducted and the stability of the basis was studied. The barley futures market operates in a heavily regulated economic environment and this is shown to impact on both price behavior and hedging opportunities.Crop Production/Industries, Marketing,

Risk Minimization, Regret Minimization and Progressive Hedging Algorithms

This paper begins with a study on the dual representations of risk and regret measures and their impact on modeling multistage decision making under uncertainty. A relationship between risk envelopes and regret envelopes is established by using the Lagrangian duality theory. Such a relationship opens a door to a decomposition scheme, called progressive hedging, for solving multistage risk minimization and regret minimization problems. In particular, the classical progressive hedging algorithm is modified in order to handle a new class of linkage constraints that arises from reformulations and other applications of risk and regret minimization problems. Numerical results are provided to show the efficiency of the progressive hedging algorithms.Comment: 21 pages, 2 figure

ROLLOVER HEDGING

Both market advisors and researchers have often suggested rollover hedging as a way of increasing producer returns. This study tests whether rollover hedging can increase expected returns for producers. For rollover hedging to increase expected returns, futures prices must follow a mean-reverting process. Using both the return predictability test based on long-horizon regression and the variance ratio test, we find that mean reversion does not exist in futures prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, soybean oil and soybean meal. The findings are consistent with the weak form of market efficiency. The results of the study imply that rollover hedging should not be seriously considered as a marketing alternative. As long as the commodity markets are efficient, the efforts of producers to improve returns through market timing strategies will meet limited success over time.Rollover hedging, mean reversion, market efficiency, Marketing,

Hedging tranches index products : illustration of model dependency

In this paper, index tranches'properties and several hedging strategies are discussed. Model risk and correlation risk are analysed through the study of the efficiency of several factor based copula models, like the Gaussian, the double-t and the double NIG using implied correlation and a particular NIG one factor model, using historical data in terms of hedging capabilities.CDO – Factor models – NIG distribution

CROSS-HEDGING COTTONSEED MEAL

This study examines the feasibility of cross-hedging cottonseed meal with soybean meal futures. The Bayesian tests for market efficiency on the cash and futures price data soundly rejects the presence of nonstationary root. The simple linear regression of cottonseed meal cash prices on soybean meal futures provides a direct price movement relationship. Using the estimated hedge-ratios, the net realized prices are calculated for seven different cash markets. The net realized prices exhibit risk efficiency superior to cash pricing. The empirical analyses suggest that soybean meal futures can be used as a potential cross-hedging vehicle for cottonseed meal.Marketing,

Cross Hedging with Single Stock Futures

This study evaluates the efficiency of cross hedging with the new single stock futures (SSF) contracts recently introduced in the United States. We use matched sample estimation techniques to select SSF contracts that will reduce the basis risk of crossing hedging and will yield the most efficient hedging portfolio. Employing multivariate matching techniques with cross-sectional matching characteristics, we can improve hedging efficiency while at the same time overcoming the contingency of the correlation between spot and futures prices on the sample period and length. Overall, we find that the best hedging performance is achieved through a portfolio that is hedged with market index futures and a SSF matched by both historical return correlation and cross-sectional matching characteristics. We also find it preferable to retain the chosen SSF contracts for the whole out-of-sample period but to re-estimate the optimal hedge ratio for each rolling window.

CROSS-HEDGING COTTONSEED MEAL

This study examines the feasibility of cross-hedging cottonseed meal with soybean meal futures. The simple linear regression of cottonseed meal cash prices on soybean meal futures provides a direct price movement relationship. Using the estimated hedge-ratios, the net realized prices are calculated for seven different cash markets. The net realized prices exhibit risk efficiency superior to cash pricing. The empirical analyses suggest that soybean meal futures can be used as a potential cross-hedging vehicle for cottonseed meal.Marketing,