ANCOVA: A global test based on a robust measure of location or quantiles when there is curvature

For two independent groups, let $M_j(x)$ be some conditional measure of location for the $j$th group associated with some random variable $Y$, given that some covariate $X=x$. When $M_j(x)$ is a robust measure of location, or even some conditional quantile of $Y$, given $X$, methods have been proposed and studied that are aimed at testing $H_0$: $M_1(x)=M_2(x)$ that deal with curvature in a flexible manner. In addition, methods have been studied where the goal is to control the probability of one or more Type I errors when testing $H_0$ for each $x \in \{x_1, \ldots, x_p\}$. This paper suggests a method for testing the global hypothesis $H_0$: $M_1(x)=M_2(x)$ for $\forall x \in \{x_1, \ldots, x_p\}$ when using a robust or quantile location estimator. An obvious advantage of testing $p$ hypotheses, rather than the global hypothesis, is that it can provide information about where regression lines differ and by how much. But the paper summarizes three general reasons to suspect that testing the global hypothesis can have more power. 2 Data from the Well Elderly 2 study illustrate that testing the global hypothesis can make a practical difference.Comment: 23 pp 2 Figure

Good, great, or lucky? Screening for firms with sustained superior performance using heavy-tailed priors

This paper examines historical patterns of ROA (return on assets) for a cohort of 53,038 publicly traded firms across 93 countries, measured over the past 45 years. Our goal is to screen for firms whose ROA trajectories suggest that they have systematically outperformed their peer groups over time. Such a project faces at least three statistical difficulties: adjustment for relevant covariates, massive multiplicity, and longitudinal dependence. We conclude that, once these difficulties are taken into account, demonstrably superior performance appears to be quite rare. We compare our findings with other recent management studies on the same subject, and with the popular literature on corporate success. Our methodological contribution is to propose a new class of priors for use in large-scale simultaneous testing. These priors are based on the hypergeometric inverted-beta family, and have two main attractive features: heavy tails and computational tractability. The family is a four-parameter generalization of the normal/inverted-beta prior, and is the natural conjugate prior for shrinkage coefficients in a hierarchical normal model. Our results emphasize the usefulness of these heavy-tailed priors in large multiple-testing problems, as they have a mild rate of tail decay in the marginal likelihood $m(y)$---a property long recognized to be important in testing.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOAS512 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org