Innovative passive reinforcements for the gradual stabilization of a landslide according with the observational method

A large number of landslides occur in North-Eastern Italy during every rainy period due to the particular hydrogeological conditions of this area. Even if there are no casualties, the economic losses are often significant, and municipalities frequently do not have sufficient financial resources to repair the damage and stabilize all the unstable slopes. In this regard, the research for more economically sustainable solutions is a crucial challenge. Floating composite anchors are an innovative and low-cost technique set up for slope stabilization: it consists in the use of passive sub-horizontal reinforcements, obtained by coupling a traditional self-drilling bar with some tendons cemented inside it. This work concerns the application of this technique according to the observational method described within the Italian and European technical codes and mainly recommended for the design of geotechnical works, especially when performed in highly uncertain site conditions. The observational method prescribes designing an intervention and, at the same time, using a monitoring system in order to correct and adapt the project during realization of the works on the basis of new data acquired while on site. The case study is the landslide of Cischele, a medium landslide which occurred in 2010 after an exceptional heavy rainy period. In 2015, some floating composite anchors were installed to slow down the movement, even if, due to a limited budget, they were not enough to ensure the complete stabilization of the slope. Thanks to a monitoring system installed in the meantime, it is now possible to have a comparison between the site conditions before and after the intervention. This allows the evaluation of benefits achieved with the reinforcements and, at the same time, the assessment of additional improvements. Two stabilization scenarios are studied through an FE model: the first includes the stabilization system built in 2015, while the second evaluates a new solution proposed to further increase the slope stability

The great inflation: did the shadow know better?

The Shadow Open Market Committee was formed in 1973 in response to rising inflation and the apparent unwillingness of U.S. policymakers to implement policies necessary to maintain price stability. This paper describes how the Committee's policy views differed from those of most Federal Reserve officials and many academic economists at the time. The Shadow argued that price stability should be the primary goal of monetary policy, and favored gradual adjustment of monetary growth to a rate consistent with price stability. The paper evaluates the Shadow's policy rule in the context of the New Keynesian macroeconomic model of Clarida, Gali and Gertler (1999). Simulations of the model suggest that the gradual stabilization of monetary growth favored by the Shadow would have lowered inflation with less impact on output growth, and with less variability in output and inflation, than a one-time reduction in monetary growth. We conclude that the Shadow articulated a sensible policy that would have outperformed the policies actually implemented by the Federal Reserve during the Great Inflation era.Inflation (Finance) ; Monetary policy

Current trends in global demographic processes

Current local and national demographic trends have deepened the existing and formed new global demographic processes that have received a new historical reasoning that requires deep scientific research taking into account the influence of the multifactorial global dimension of the modern society development. The purpose of the article is to study the development of global demographic processes and to define the causes of their occurrence, manifestations, implications and prospects for implementation in the first half of the 21st century. The authors have identified and characterized four global demographic processes, namely population growth, migration, increase of tourism, and change in population structure. It is projected that in the 30’s of the 21st century, the number and growth rates of the world population will reach the objective growth and these dynamics over the next two decades will begin to change in the direction of reducing the growth rates, which will lead to gradual stabilization, and eventually reduce the size of the world population. By the middle of the 21st century, one can observe the preservation of the growth rates of international and domestic migration, the growth of international migration flows from the South to the North and from the East to the West, the strengthening of new economically developed centers of gravity (Canada, Australia and New Zealand), the increase in migration of rural population to cities, as well as urbanization and activation of the metropolises development. The share of international tourists in comparison with the world population will be constantly increasing, and the annual growth rate of the number of international tourists will significantly depend on the world economy and may vary at the several percent level. Permanent change will occur in the age, religious-cultural and socio-economic structure of the population

Impact of atmospheric circulation patterns on coastal dune dynamics, NW Spain

Dunes in temperate latitudes have experienced a significant stabilization in recent times, essentially as a consequence of the expansion of dense vegetation cover. Yet, the causes for this gradual stabilization as well as the causes promoting antecedent aeolian mobilization remain poorly understood. The Traba coastal dune field, located in NW Spain, was examined to explore the causes inducing aeolian activity and subsequent stabilization since 1940. Morphological changes were identified through the combination of aerial photographs and geophysical techniques. Local wind field regimes were simulated using a regional climate model to obtain the variability of the most relevant modes of atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic and European regions; North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Eastern Atlantic (EA) and Scandinavian (SCAND). This allows us to identify the impact of these circulation modes over dune dynamics. Results document an episode of aeolian activity during the 1950s followed by a gradual stabilization and fixation of the dune coincident with a decrease on storm and wind intensity. Yet, aeolian sand movement remained active in small areas (blowouts), occurring mainly during the summer. NE winds associated with a negative phase of the EA explain the movement of sand within the dune field under favorable conditions of sand supply. On the other hand, sand supply to the dune field from the beach was promoted by NW winds coincident with the summer negative phase of NAO. During winter, the negative NAO favored frequent SW winds associated with the passage of intense storms, which in turn explain sand remobilization from the beach making sediment available for the NW winds to blow inland. With this work, it is proven that to understand past and future aeolian activity requires critical consideration of the variability and impact of the two principal modes of atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic (NAO and EA). The SCAND mode explaining a lower percentage of the local wind field variability was also included to achieve higher significance levels of explained variance

Партнерська взаємодія громадянського суспільства і держави як умова стабілізації політичної системи України

У статті розглядається специфіка відносин громадянського суспільства і держави в умовах політичної кризи, яка розгорнулася в Україні протягом 2014-2015 років. Запропонована авторська модель партнерської взаємодії, що дозволить об'єднати потенціал громадянського суспільства та держави і забезпечити поступову стабілізацію соціально-політичної ситуації в країні.В статье рассматривается специфика отношений гражданского общества и государства в условиях политического кризиса, развернувшегося в Украине в 2014-2015 годах. Предложена авторская модель партнерского взаимодействия, которая позволит объединить потенциал гражданского общества и государства, и обеспечит постепенную стабилизацию социально-политической ситуации в стране.In the article the specificity of relations of civil society and the state as a political crisis that unfolded in Ukraine for 2014-2015 years. The author 's model of partnership that will combine the potential of civil society and the state and ensure the gradual stabilization of the socio-political situation in the country

ETEKOS experimental ecosystem

A description is given of an experimental ecosystem, or Etekos, which was developed at the Moscow University. The experiment lasted about one year, and the results obtained are itemized

Fuzzification of quantitative data to predict tumour size of colorectal cancer

Regression analysis has become more popular among researchers as a standard tool in analyzing data. This paper used fuzzy linear regression model (FLRM) to predict tumour size of colorectal cancer (CRC) data in Malaysia. 180 patients with colorectal cancer received treatment in hospital were recorded by nurses and doctors. Based on the patient records, a triangular fuzzy data will be built toward the size of the tumour. Mean square error (MSE) and root mean square error (RMSE) will be measured as a part of the process for predicting the size of the tumour. The degree of fitting adjusted is set between 0 and 1 in order to find the least error. It was found that the combination of FLRM model with fuzzy data provided a better prediction compared to the FLRM model alone. Hence, this study concluded that the tumour size is directly proportional to several factors such as gender, ethnic, icd 10, TNM staging, diabetes mellitus, Crohn’s disease

Estimating Literacy Rate: A Study Relating Literacy Rate with Combined Gross Elementary and Secondary Schools Enrollment Rate

Literacy is one of the core indicators utilized to measure social development. It is necessary that planners and policymakers be aided in their evaluation of past literacy performance and formulation of future education policies. Literacy data, however, are relatively scarce because of the costs involved in its collection and processing. This paper addresses the problem of generating annual literacy rate estimates to fill the gap between planning considerations and the scantiness of statistics on literacy.literacy and language proficiency