Regression on fixed-rank positive semidefinite matrices: a Riemannian approach

The paper addresses the problem of learning a regression model parameterized by a fixed-rank positive semidefinite matrix. The focus is on the nonlinear nature of the search space and on scalability to high-dimensional problems. The mathematical developments rely on the theory of gradient descent algorithms adapted to the Riemannian geometry that underlies the set of fixed-rank positive semidefinite matrices. In contrast with previous contributions in the literature, no restrictions are imposed on the range space of the learned matrix. The resulting algorithms maintain a linear complexity in the problem size and enjoy important invariance properties. We apply the proposed algorithms to the problem of learning a distance function parameterized by a positive semidefinite matrix. Good performance is observed on classical benchmarks

Does money matter in inflation forecasting?.

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two non-linear techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks and kernel recursive least squares regression - techniques that are new to macroeconomics. Recurrent neural networks operate with potentially unbounded input memory, while the kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non-linear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation