Bifurcation analysis of a population model and the resulting SIS epidemic model with delay

AbstractThis paper deals with the model for matured population growth proposed in Cooke et al. [Interaction of matiration delay and nonlinear birth in population and epidemic models, J. Math. Biol. 39 (1999) 332–352] and the resulting SIS epidemic model. The dynamics of these two models are still largely undetermined, and in this paper, we perform some bifurcation analysis to the models. By applying the global bifurcation theory for functional differential equations, we are able to show that the population model allows multiple periodic solutions. For the SIS model, we obtain some local bifurcation results and derive formulas for determining the bifurcation direction and the stability of the bifurcated periodic solution

Global Stability of an SIR Epidemic Model with Delay and General Nonlinear Incidence

An SIR model with distributed delay and a general incidence function is studied. Conditions are given under which the system exhibits threshold behaviour: the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R0 \u3c 1 and globally attracting if R0 = 1; if R0 \u3e 1, then the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. The global stability proofs use a Lyapunov functional and do not require uniform persistence to be shown a priori. It is shown that the given conditions are satisfied by several common forms of the incidence function

Stability and bifurcations in an epidemic model with varying immunity period

An epidemic model with distributed time delay is derived to describe the dynamics of infectious diseases with varying immunity. It is shown that solutions are always positive, and the model has at most two steady states: disease-free and endemic. It is proved that the disease-free equilibrium is locally and globally asymptotically stable. When an endemic equilibrium exists, it is possible to analytically prove its local and global stability using Lyapunov functionals. Bifurcation analysis is performed using DDE-BIFTOOL and traceDDE to investigate different dynamical regimes in the model using numerical continuation for different values of system parameters and different integral kernels.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figure

Global dynamics of a novel delayed logistic equation arising from cell biology

The delayed logistic equation (also known as Hutchinson's equation or Wright's equation) was originally introduced to explain oscillatory phenomena in ecological dynamics. While it motivated the development of a large number of mathematical tools in the study of nonlinear delay differential equations, it also received criticism from modellers because of the lack of a mechanistic biological derivation and interpretation. Here we propose a new delayed logistic equation, which has clear biological underpinning coming from cell population modelling. This nonlinear differential equation includes terms with discrete and distributed delays. The global dynamics is completely described, and it is proven that all feasible nontrivial solutions converge to the positive equilibrium. The main tools of the proof rely on persistence theory, comparison principles and an $L^2$-perturbation technique. Using local invariant manifolds, a unique heteroclinic orbit is constructed that connects the unstable zero and the stable positive equilibrium, and we show that these three complete orbits constitute the global attractor of the system. Despite global attractivity, the dynamics is not trivial as we can observe long-lasting transient oscillatory patterns of various shapes. We also discuss the biological implications of these findings and their relations to other logistic type models of growth with delays

Asymptotic behavior of age-structured and delayed Lotka-Volterra models

In this work we investigate some asymptotic properties of an age-structured Lotka-Volterra model, where a specific choice of the functional parameters allows us to formulate it as a delayed problem, for which we prove the existence of a unique coexistence equilibrium and characterize the existence of a periodic solution. We also exhibit a Lyapunov functional that enables us to reduce the attractive set to either the nontrivial equilibrium or to a periodic solution. We then prove the asymptotic stability of the nontrivial equilibrium where, depending on the existence of the periodic trajectory, we make explicit the basin of attraction of the equilibrium. Finally, we prove that these results can be extended to the initial PDE problem.Comment: 29 page