Why We Use a New Currency: The Role of Trust and Control in Explaining the Perception and Usage of Bitcoin

Social media, e-commerce, global peer-to-peer technologies, and the near ubiquity of computers and smartphones allow people to interact, trust, and exchange value across traditional socio-economic control boundaries and over significant distances. Since the creation in 2008 of a new cryptographic currency system called Bitcoin, a financial technology market sector of about 250 billion USD has rapidly emerged, raising questions about the nature of currency in society and whether new types of non-national money are warranted and viable. This debate has pitted heterodox economic interests against orthodox economic interests while it has rekindled interest in theories that view money as a social construct with a multitude of potential forms beyond ‘state’ or fiat money, and in forms that are increasingly predicted to be purely digital in the future. This study seeks to explain the policy, social, and economic factors that underlie perceptions and usage of these new currency types. First, I develop a novel theoretical matrix of trust and control to explain the conditions under which people choose to use any monetary system. Then, I test this theory with a quantitative analysis of policy, trust, socio-economic, and cultural factors affecting the perceptions and usage of the new currency systems of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in 28 countries. This analysis draws on usage metrics recorded from the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency network systems, attitudinal data from the World Values Survey (WVS) and European Values Study (EVS), and a proprietary survey of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency perceptions and usage in 15 countries conducted by Ipsos for the behavioral economics research department at ING Group. I performed principal component analyses (PCA) to reduce factors among collected metrics, and I then integrated the findings of the PCA into a series of ordinary least squares (OLS) regressions along three primary vectors: trust, control, and culture. Based on my empirical findings, I group these new currency system users’ personality perspectives into four categories: Evangelists, Pragmatists, Skeptics, and Speculators. The analysis finds Bitcoin and cryptocurrency perceptions and usage are not correlated with the strictness or laxness of public policies concerning Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. The analysis also finds Bitcoin interest as measured by Google Search Trends is not correlated to Bitcoin and cryptocurrency perceptions and usage but is correlated to several lower socio-economic metrics related to crime and lack of confidence in law enforcement and government control. There is more favorable perception and usage of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in countries with less developed socio-economic profiles, and less favorable perceptions and usage in countries with more developed socio-economic profiles. There is more favorable perception and usage of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in countries with aggregate lower generalized trust and lower democratic tendencies, and less favorable perceptions and usage in countries with aggregate higher generalized trust and higher democratic tendencies. Overall, the findings show the extent to which trends in usage and perception of the emergent currencies of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are associated with basic cultural and attitudinal tendencies that are not necessarily related to public policy or other typical monetary theory-based controls. I conclude that a matrix of trust and control is effective at demonstrating how sociological factors explain the landscape of historical, extant, and emergent currency systems and this matrix predicts where Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies situate in society relative to these other currency systems

SoK: A Stratified Approach to Blockchain Decentralization

Decentralization has been touted as the principal security advantage which propelled blockchain systems at the forefront of developments in the financial technology space. Its exact semantics nevertheless remain highly contested and ambiguous, with proponents and critics disagreeing widely on the level of decentralization offered. To address this, we put forth a systematization of the current landscape with respect to decentralization and we derive a methodology that can help direct future research towards defining and measuring decentralization. Our approach dissects blockchain systems into multiple layers, or strata, each possibly encapsulating multiple categories, and enables a unified method for measuring decentralization in each one. Our layers are (1) hardware, (2) software, (3) network, (4) consensus, (5) economics ("tokenomics"), (6) API, (7) governance, and (8) geography. Armed with this stratification, we examine for each layer which pertinent properties of distributed ledgers (safety, liveness, privacy, stability) can be at risk due to centralization and in what way. Our work highlights the challenges in measuring and achieving decentralization, points to the degree of (de)centralization of various existing systems, where such assessment can be made from presently available public information, and suggests potential metrics and directions where future research is needed. We also introduce the "Minimum Decentralization Test", as a way to assess the decentralization state of a blockchain system and, as an exemplary case, we showcase how it can be applied to Bitcoin

Распределение богатства в экосистеме биткоин

The paper deals with the problems of measuring uneven wealth distribution in the bitcoin ecosystem. All existing bitcoin distribution models depend on the analysis of bitcoin wallets and bitcoin addresses. They are based on the Bitcoin Rich List. This approach is insufficient due to the inscrutable relationships between people owning bitcoin, bitcoin wallets, and bitcoin addresses. In this paper, we used the methods of comparative analysis resulted in graphics as represented by Lorentz and Lamé curves and distribution of the Gini coefficients and the Kolkata index. We identified empirical cumulative functions of wealth distribution and the number of addresses with positive balance during the bubble and after its explosion. Approximations of the distribution of ‘poor’ and ‘rich’ addresses have been obtained and compared with the other results from the cited literature. The general public views the equality of network members as synonymous with the equal distribution of wealth among them. Emerging financial bubbles, especially in the US financial markets, lead to an increase in income inequality. However, after a bubble explodes, the inequality falls to the initial level.В статье рассматриваются проблемы измерения неравномерности распределения богатства в экосистеме биткоин. Все существующие модели распределения биткоин зависят от анализа биткоин-кошельков и биткоин-адресов. Они основаны на богатом списке биткоинов. Такого подхода недостаточно из-за непостижимых отношений между людьми, владеющими биткоинами, биткоин-кошельками и биткоин-адресами. В работе нами использовались методы сравнительного анализа с графическим изображением результатов в виде кривых Лоренца, Ламе и распределения коэффициентов Джини и индекса Кольката. Авторы определили эмпирические кумулятивные функции распределения богатства и количества адресов с положительным балансом во время пузыря и после его взрыва. Получены аппроксимации распределения «бедных» и «богатых» адресов и сделано их сравнение с другими результатами, представленными в цитируемой литературе. Широкая общественность рассматривает равенство членов сети как синоним относительно равного распределения богатства между ними. Появление финансовых пузырей, в особенности на финансовых рынках США, приводит к увеличению неравенства доходов, но после краха пузыря неравенство падает до начального уровн

Econophysics: agent-based models

This article is the second part of a review of recent empirical and theoretical developments usually grouped under the heading Econophysics. In the first part, we reviewed the statistical properties of financial time series, the statistics exhibited in order books and discussed some studies of correlations of asset prices and returns. This second part deals with models in Econophysics from the point of view of agent-based modeling. Of the large number of multiagent- based models, we have identified three representative areas. First, using previous work originally presented in the fields of behavioral finance and market microstructure theory, econophysicists have developed agent-based models of order-driven markets that we discuss extensively here. Second, kinetic theory models designed to explain certain empirical facts concerning wealth distribution are reviewed. Third, we briefly summarize game theory models by reviewing the now classic minority game and related problems.

DeFi, Not So Decentralized: The Measured Distribution of Voting Rights

Bitcoin and Ethereum are frequently promoted as decentralized, but developers and academics question their actual decentralization. This motivates further experiments with public permissionless blockchains to achieve decentralization along technical, economic, and political lines. The distribution of tokenized voting rights aims for political decentralization. Tokenized voting rights achieved notoriety within the nascent field of decentralized finance (DeFi) in 2020. As an alternative to centralized crypto-asset exchanges and lending platforms (owned by companies like Coinbase and Celsius), DeFi developers typically create non-custodial projects that are not majority-owned or managed by legal entities. Holders of tokenized voting rights can instead govern DeFi projects. To scrutinize DeFi’s distributed governance strategies, we conducted a multiple-case study of non-custodial, Ethereum-based DeFi projects: Uniswap, Maker, SushiSwap, Yearn Finance, and UMA. Our findings are novel and surprising: quantitative evaluations of DeFi’s distributed governance strategies reveal a failure to achieve political decentralization

The role of sentiment analysis in forecasting successful ICOs

I explored the potential of Sentiment Analysis (SA) infore casting successful initial coin offerings (ICOs). The aim is to determine if the SA and Twitter data alone, and in combination with TORD, a publicly available database Paul P. 2021, can evaluate the success of ICOs. Hence, I provided background information on the initial coin offering (ICO) market and cryptocurrencies, followed by a thorough literature review on SA and the main success factors of ICOs.Then, I finally presented the research project results, including the use of SA methodologies, data cleaning, graphical, and predictive analysis. Along with the conclusions with personal insights on the result

Meritocratic matching can dissolve the efficiency-equality tradeoff: the case of voluntary contributions

One of the fundamental tradeoffs underlying society is that between efficiency and equality. The challenge for institutional design is to strike the right balance between these two goals. Game-theoretic models of public-goods provision under ‘meritocratic matching’ succinctly capture this tradeoff: under zero meritocracy (society is randomly formed), theory predicts maximal inefficiency but perfect equality; higher levels of meritocracy (society matches contributors with contributors) are predicted to improve efficiency but come at the cost of growing inequality. We conduct an experiment to test this tradeoff behaviorally and make the astonishing finding that, notwithstanding theoretical predictions, higher levels of meritocracy increase both efficiency and equality, that is, meritocratic matching dissolves the tradeoff. Fairness considerations can explain the departures from theoretical predictions including the behavioral phenomena that lead to dissolution of the efficiency-equality tradeoff

The Inclusive Growth and Development Report 2017

Around the globe, leaders of governments and other stakeholder institutions enter 2017 facing a set of difficult and increasingly urgent questions:With fiscal space limited, interest rates near zero, and demographic trends unfavorable in many countries, does the world economy face a protracted period of relatively low growth? Will macroeconomics and demography determine the world economy's destiny for the foreseeable future?Can rising in-country inequality be satisfactorily redressed within the prevailing liberal international economic order? Can those who argue that modern capitalist economies face inherent limitations in this regard – that their internal "income distribution system" is broken and likely beyond repair – be proven wrong?As technological disruption accelerates in the Fourth Industrial Revolution, how can societies organize themselves better to respond to the potential employment and other distributional effects? Are expanded transfer payments the only or primary solution, or can market mechanisms be developed to widen social participation in new forms of economic value-creation?These questions beg the more fundamental one of whether a secular correction is required in the existing economic growth model in order to counteract secular stagnation and dispersion (chronic low growth and rising inequality). Does the mental map of how policymakers conceptualize and enable national economic performance need to be redrawn? Is there a structural way, beyond the temporary monetary and fiscal measures of recent years, to cut the Gordian knot of slow growth and rising inequality, to turn the current vicious cycle of stagnation and dispersion into a virtuous one in which greater social inclusion and stronger and more sustainable growth reinforce each other?This is precisely what government, business, and other leaders from every region have been calling for. Over the past several years, a worldwide consensus has emerged on the need for a more inclusive growth and development model; however, this consensus is mainly directional. Inclusive growth remains more a discussion topic than an action agenda. This Report seeks to help countries and the wider international community practice inclusive growth and development by offering a new policy framework and corresponding set of policy and performance indicators for this purpose