Geographic profiling in Nazi Berlin: fact and fiction

Geographic profiling uses the locations of connected crime sites to make inferences about the probable location of the offender’s ‘anchor point’ (usually a home, but sometimes a workplace). We show how the basic ideas of the method were used in a Gestapo investigation that formed the basis of a classic German novel about domestic resistance to the Nazis during the Second World War. We use modern techniques to re-analyse this case, and show that these successfully locate the Berlin home address of Otto and Elise Hampel, who had distributed hundreds of anti-Nazi postcards, after analysing just 34 of the 214 incidents that took place before their arrest. Our study provides the first empirical evidence to support the suggestion that analysis of minor terrorism-related acts such as graffiti and theft could be used to help locate terrorist bases before more serious incidents occur

empathi: An ontology for Emergency Managing and Planning about Hazard Crisis

In the domain of emergency management during hazard crises, having sufficient situational awareness information is critical. It requires capturing and integrating information from sources such as satellite images, local sensors and social media content generated by local people. A bold obstacle to capturing, representing and integrating such heterogeneous and diverse information is lack of a proper ontology which properly conceptualizes this domain, aggregates and unifies datasets. Thus, in this paper, we introduce empathi ontology which conceptualizes the core concepts concerning with the domain of emergency managing and planning of hazard crises. Although empathi has a coarse-grained view, it considers the necessary concepts and relations being essential in this domain. This ontology is available at https://w3id.org/empathi/

Data DNA: The Next Generation of Statistical Metadata

Describes the components of a complete statistical metadata system and suggests ways to create and structure metadata for better access and understanding of data sets by diverse users

Comparative approaches for assessing access to alcohol outlets: exploring the utility of a gravity potential approach.

BackgroundA growing body of research recommends controlling alcohol availability to reduce harm. Various common approaches, however, provide dramatically different pictures of the physical availability of alcohol. This limits our understanding of the distribution of alcohol access, the causes and consequences of this distribution, and how best to reduce harm. The aim of this study is to introduce both a gravity potential measure of access to alcohol outlets, comparing its strengths and weaknesses to other popular approaches, and an empirically-derived taxonomy of neighborhoods based on the type of alcohol access they exhibit.MethodsWe obtained geospatial data on Seattle, including the location of 2402 alcohol outlets, United States Census Bureau estimates on 567 block groups, and a comprehensive street network. We used exploratory spatial data analysis and employed a measure of inter-rater agreement to capture differences in our taxonomy of alcohol availability measures.ResultsSignificant statistical and spatial variability exists between measures of alcohol access, and these differences have meaningful practical implications. In particular, standard measures of outlet density (e.g., spatial, per capita, roadway miles) can lead to biased estimates of physical availability that over-emphasize the influence of the control variables. Employing a gravity potential approach provides a more balanced, geographically-sensitive measure of access to alcohol outlets.ConclusionsAccurately measuring the physical availability of alcohol is critical for understanding the causes and consequences of its distribution and for developing effective evidence-based policy to manage the alcohol outlet licensing process. A gravity potential model provides a superior measure of alcohol access, and the alcohol access-based taxonomy a helpful evidence-based heuristic for scholars and local policymakers

Update on Geospatial Patterns of Antecedent Behavior among Perpetrators in the American Terrorism Study (ATS)

As part of the Terrorism and Extremist Violence in the United States (TEVUS) database integration effort, researchers at the Terrorism Research Center in Fulbright College at the University of Arkansas and the University of Oklahoma have been adding: 1) federal terrorism court cases and associated data and 2) incident and antecedent geospatial data from these court cases to the American Terrorism Study (ATS). The goal of the project is to examine geospatial patterns in perpetrator behavior and determine if the patterns identified in earlier studies have changed significantly. The ATS allows examination of a number of different units of analysis. Analyses may examine: (1) characteristics of federal terrorism court cases; (2) the characteristics of persons indicted in each court case or involved in incidents, otherwise referred to as indictees; (3) characteristics of incidents and planned incidents; and (4) antecedent activities that lead up to the incident and are necessary to carry it out and/or achieve the goals of the persons or groups

The Ontology of Command and Control

The goal of the Department of Defense Net-Centric Data Strategy is to improve data sharing throughout the DoD. Data sharing is a critical element of interoperability in the emerging system-of-systems. Achieving interoperability requires the elimination of two types of data heterogeneity: differences of syntax and differences of semantics. This paper builds a path toward semantic uniformity through application of a disciplined approach to ontology. An ontology is a consensus framework representing the types of entities within a given domain and the relations between them. The construction of an ontology begins when a Community of Interest (COI) identifies its authoritative data sources (ADS), which are usually manifest in relevant doctrinal publications, glossaries, data dictionaries, and logical data models. The identified terms are then defined in relation to a common logical framework that has been designed to ensure interoperability with other ontologies created on the basis of the same strategy. As will be described, the Command and Control (C2) Ontology will include representations of a substantial number of entities within the Command and Control (C2) domain. If domain ontologies (e.g. Strike and Counterinsurgency) semantically align with the C2 Ontology, then a substantial barrier to systems interoperability is thereby crossed

THE ANALYTICS QUOTIENT: RETOOLING CIVIL AFFAIRS FOR THE FUTURE OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Historically, military intelligence analysts and U.S. forces, frozen in their preferred strategy of attrition warfare, have undervalued civil information in conflicts against irregular threats. As operating environments grow more complex, uncertain, and population-centric, the roles of Civil Affairs Forces and civil information will become increasingly relevant. Unfortunately, the current analytical methods prescribed in Civil Affairs doctrine are inadequate for evaluating complex environments. They fail to provide supported commanders with the information required to make informed decisions. The purpose of this research is to determine how Civil Affairs Forces must retool their analytical capabilities to meet the demands of future operating environments. The answer lies in developing an organic Civil Affairs analytic capability suitable for employing data-driven approaches to gain actionable insights into uncertain operational environments, and subsequently, integrating those insights into sophisticated operational targeting frameworks and strategies designed to disrupt irregular threats. This research uses case studies of organizations, across a range of industries, that leveraged innovative data-driven approaches into disruptive competitive advantages. These organizations highlight the broad utility of the prescribed approaches and potential pathways for Civil Affairs Forces to pursue in creating an analytic capability that supports effective civil knowledge integration.http://archive.org/details/theanalyticsquot1094564891Major, United States ArmyApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited